If there’s one state that could bring a smile, even if a wry one, on the Opposition’s sullen faces after the exit polls on June 1, it would be Maharashtra. Almost all the exit polls, barring one, predict that the three-party Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), comprising the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP and the Congress, will have a substantial lead over the BJP-led NDA, which includes the breakaway factions of the Shiv Sena and the NCP led, respectively, by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and his deputy, Ajit Pawar.
In 2019, when the outgoing Parliament was elected, the BJP and what was then the unified Shiv Sena had pocketed 42 of the total 48 Lok Sabha seats from Maharashtra. Of these, the BJP had bagged 23 (from the 25 seats that it had contested) while the Shiv Sena had won 18 (out of 23 contested). Congress, on the other hand, could win in just one seat, although it had contested from 24. Its partner Sharad Pawar’s NCP had managed to win four of the 20 it fought five years back. The western state of Maharashtra had thus become the BJP’s knight in shining saffron armour.
Come 2024 and the state seems to offer a completely different picture. If the exit polls are to be believed, notwithstanding the BJP and NDA’s seemingly unassailable hold over the state, the Opposition seems to have not only halted the BJP’s juggernaut but also pushed it back to the corner. The exit polls offer the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena nine to 14 seats out of the 21 that it contested, while Sharad Pawar’s NCP is expected to add a minimum of two to three to its previous tally of four (out of the 10 where it was in the fray). Congress, too, has not been left behind, and is expected to raise its tally to four to six. The Grand Old Party had contested from 17 constituencies. The NDA, according to the exit polls, seems to be hovering between 23 to 32 while the Opposition is expected to win 16 to 25 seats.
Interestingly, there appears to be a consensus among all pollsters on one point: The BJP will either retain or will be close to its previous tally, while its newly-acquired — or procured — partners may suffer significant damage, thereby pulling down the NDA’s tally. That Maharashtra might be the Achilles’ heel for the NDA, if not for the BJP, was known even before the elections were announced. The exit polls thus have little surprise, at least for those watching Maharashtra very closely.
The emerging political landscape looks more attractive considering the ensuing state assembly elections, slated for October. The actual results, no doubt, will make the picture clear. One lesson, however, stands out amidst the pollsters’ chatter.
That is the Opposition’s success in making the BJP fight in Maharashtra on its own terms, thereby localising the battle. This is unlike many other states where the larger-than-life image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi loomed over the contest. The combined strength of Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, along with the Congress, successfully thwarted every attempt by the BJP this time to set the narrative and turn the battle in every constituency into “Modi versus who”. When viewed against the backdrop of PM Modi’s approximately 20 election meetings, and an equal number of pre-election visits and road shows, the NDA’s apparent lack of success in Maharashtra might be larger than what the exit polls suggest.
However, chances are that those who expect the BJP to learn a lesson and bide its time by giving up its over-adventurous politics will be disappointed. Expect another round of defections and counter-defections even before the dust raised by the parliamentary election results settle down. For the BJP, Maharashtra is too big a state to be left to the Opposition.
The writer is editor, Loksatta
