The electoral battle in Karnataka has begun with the formal announcement of the poll schedule. In a little over 40 days from now, the political complexion of the state legislative assembly will be clear. Will the Karnataka voter usher in a new electoral trend or conform to past political traditions — is the question..
In close to four decades, Karnataka has never voted back a ruling party with a majority. The last time this happened was in 1985 when the Ramakrishna Hegde-led Janata Party secured a clear majority. The BJP has never won a majority in the state’s assembly polls. It came close in 2008 and 2018. In 2008, it managed a majority with the help of independents and in 2018, the resignation of Congress and JDS MLAs secured the party a majority. The BJP hopes to reverse both these trends.
Congress is banking on this trend to see it through beyond the majority mark. JDS, at a distant third position, hopes for an assembly with no party having secured a majority, thus having the chance to emerge as a king-maker and possibly the king once again.
Having been in power for four years in Karnataka, the BJP is making an all-out effort to retain the state. Its strategy is four-fold. First, a clear focus on the central government and leadership. If the past three months are any indication, the party’s campaign will be directly led by its central leadership with a focus on what they would like to project as achievements of the central government. Any reference to the state government appears to be a belated afterthought. Second, the party is going into the election without declaring a chief ministerial candidate even though they have an incumbent chief minister. Former CM B S Yediyurappa will clearly be its star campaigner from among the state leaders. He is credited with having built up the party in the state and the BJP hopes to bank on his charisma. There is, of course, a difference this time around. He has announced his decision not to contest. In earlier elections, he was the chief ministerial face of the party. It would be interesting to see if this would make a difference.
Third, the BJP will need to retain its traditional support in northern and coastal Karnataka and make inroads in the old Mysore region. In much of the latter, the traditional fight was between Congress and JDS. To secure a majority, the BJP needs to do well in old Mysore even as it retains its strong presence in north Karnataka. This explains the repeated tours of its national leaders to that part of the state. Lastly, the BJP is attempting to build a wider social coalition. While hoping that the Lingayats would continue to support the party, it is seeking to expand its support among the Vokkaligas, Other Backward Classes and Dalits. The reworking of the reservation quota was a step aimed at expanding this caste outreach. The backlash seen in the last week would need to be closely watched.
Congress has always been a key player in the state. What has plagued the party is factionalism and lack of unity at crucial moments. The party, especially its state leadership, realises that without unity, the chance of becoming a majority party this time around would remain a dream. The two key leaders, Siddaramaiah and Shiva Kumar, have made their chief ministerial ambitions clear but have also not crossed the Lakshman Rekha, maintaining that this is a post-election decision. Whether the unity gets unstuck at the time of distribution of party tickets will be the litmus test. Till now, the party has focused on local issues, and on the BJP’s rule. Rahul Gandhi’s expulsion from the Lok Sabha has been added as a talking point in their campaign. The rainbow social coalition that Congress was traditionally known to draw its support from is being assiduously cultivated.
The JDS remains a distant third force. It suffered a huge political setback in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls on account of its alliance with Congress. This allowed the BJP to make inroads into its traditional base in the old Mysore region. Its leader, Kumaraswamy, has stirred the political pot by claiming that both the Congress and BJP are in touch with it.
Lokniti-CSDS post-poll surveys indicate that in recent years, most voters decide on whom they wish to vote for much before the announcement of the elections. This was true of Karnataka the last time around. To a certain extent, this reflects political polarisation. And given the committed voters of these parties, this does not appear surprising. The swing voter thus becomes important. The effort over the next 40 days will be to sway her. While many commentators are predicting a hung assembly, the vote in Karnataka could well be more decisive.
The writer, a political analyst, is the national coordinator of Lokniti Network
