It is not as if the BJP was never defeated in the last nine years. Yet, the Karnataka outcome holds considerable significance. It signifies the possibility of engaging in a sustained contest with the BJP over its idea of what India, Hinduism and democracy mean. But the Karnataka verdict also has the possibility of being exaggerated. Perhaps the most critical aspect of this election was that it did not become a “Modi vs Rahul” contest.
Equally significantly, the outcome belies the hope and faith of BJP faithfuls that Narendra Modi can win them all elections. Over the past decade, all of the BJP campaigning is centred on the PM and therefore, if the credit for the many victories goes to him, the few defeats must also be laid at his door. If Modi could not win Karnataka for the BJP, it is a warning signal for the party in view of the parliamentary election next year. But it is necessary to also go beyond the persona of the PM so that we are not waylaid by antics and tactics but are able to focus on the substance of what he represents.
Opponents of Hindutva often use the term “laboratory of Hindutva”. Karnataka was supposed to be one such. As a matter of fact, there is not one laboratory; in every state, efforts to lure Hindus away from their traditional faith and make them hate-filled anti-minority crowds have been going on. These efforts have a template: Mixing nationalism with religion, religiosity with collective display of community prowess; superimposition of pan-Indian deities as symbols and, at the same time, employment of local deities to show how devotion to them demands suspicion and hate of others. While the arena of competitive politics is thus filled with the othering of non-Hindus, the socio-cultural space is filled with daily tensions, taboos on intercommunity interactions and ostracisation of minorities. This writer has been describing this phenomenon as majoritarianism and arguing that it is against the principles of democracy.
Karnataka has been no exception to this “experimentation”. Not just during election time, controversies such as the one around hijab were brought into the public domain. The religion of Tipu Sultan was held against him to create a communal divide. Young girls were accosted for what they wear and what they drink. But nothing of this was exceptional to Karnataka. The sound and fury in Maharashtra over the Hindu Jan Aakrosh demonstrations only indicate that what Karnataka experienced these past few years, Maharashtra will undergo in the present. Not just because the BJP wants to reap electoral gains but because of the urgency to shape Indian society in an exclusivist and culturally conservative manner. That in state after state, many Hindus have accepted this drive, is indicative of the majoritarian moment we live in.
That is where the defeat of the BJP in Karnataka marks a limited departure. In the first place, the war on India’s cultural inclusiveness that Hindutva has waged needs a political counter. Without electoral setbacks and stripping of state support, majoritarianism cannot be contained. With all its limitations, the electoral arena holds a key to the march of Hindutva. Karnataka has shown that this is possible.
Secondly, here was a heightened community-based campaign run by the BJP: From using Tipu to suggesting that a Vokkaliga hero was instrumental in killing Tipu; from using religious analogies of Lord Shiva to imputing that a ban on Bajrang Dal will be an insult to Lord Hanuman; from the PM chanting “Jai Bajrang Bali” to exhorting voters to shout that slogan after casting their vote. So, all the ammunition for Hindu consolidation was already employed. That did not suffice for increasing the BJP’s vote share. Moreover, even with the same vote share as last time, the BJP failed to garner seats.
And yet, there are very serious limitations to this departure. The victory of the Congress is important indeed, but one does not know whether the party has the ability to replicate it in other states and at the time of parliamentary elections. If Karnataka were to be a one-off miracle for the Congress, this victory would have no value either for the future of democracy or the party. Supporters of Congress and of the Bharat Jodo Yatra are likely to link the Karnataka victory to the Yatra’s message of love. This may be so in part, but the key to the Congress victory consisted of reliance on local leadership, a working understanding among the state leaders and near-complete focus on local issues. As we move on to assembly elections in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, it will be crucial if the Congress manages to forge a similar synergy among its state leaders there.
Besides the internal balance within the party, the issue of alliances with other parties will also be important. In view of the blow to the JD(S), other parties would be wary of the Congress if it performs well. The Congress and its state-level leaders have a penchant for punching above their weight and their claim that the Congress is the main opposition party could become a stumbling block in efforts to forge alliances. Even with a rejuvenated Congress, we cannot think of the next parliamentary battle without meaningful adjustments among non-BJP parties. Thus, if the Karnataka election result strengthens the Congress, it indirectly poses problems for non-BJP, non-Congress parties.
But, after all, Opposition alliance-making and intra-party balancing are political manoeuvres. The real reason why the Karnataka departure from the majoritarian path has limited potential lies in the arena of cultural contestation. Already, the broad contours of political culture in states like Gujarat, MP or UP are marked by both majoritarianism and authoritarianism. On questions of free intermingling of communities, Indian public opinion is probably becoming more negative than before. The educated middle classes who constitute the more articulate sections are almost completely averse to including Muslims in relationships of co-citizenship. This sentiment is exacerbated by heightened tensions on issues of “love jihad” and cow killing.
In a public sphere where movies like “The Kerala Story” are attractive, where not just raw gossip on social media but serious calls for economic boycott of Muslims constitute new mores of cultural nationalism, where the more articulate middle classes continue to disseminate falsehoods about Muslim fertility rates, where states hound couples for inter-religious marriages, the challenge is not limited to defeating the BJP on the basis of local issues. The Karnataka defeat shows the vulnerability of the BJP. But does it show a willingness of society to welcome a challenge to Hindutva?
The writer, based at Pune, taught Political Science
