As Uttarakhand’s fifth state assembly elections wind down, let us take a look at some of the key factors that determined its outcome and how the major players fared.
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Having thus far been an electorally bipolar state, this election marks the first time in the state’s history that the ruling party has not lost the election. Some may see this as a testament to the BJP’s sway over the Himalayan state whereas others may feel it more noteworthy to point out the ineffectiveness of the opposition parties. It is fair to say that the result was impacted by both the former and the latter. However, what is certain is that the 2017 Modi wave is still sweeping across Uttarakhand.
Despite the political baggage that comes with having appointed three different chief ministers over the past year, the “Modi magic” remains intact. In other words, as long as Narendra Modi holds the reins at the Centre, the disorder in Uttarakhand’s BJP unit will continue to be overlooked by the state’s voters. Further, Modi’s public affection for Uttarakhand — which includes his personal involvement in the Kedarnath restoration and Badrinath redevelopment plans — has catapulted him to an almost unassailable status in the eyes of many.
That being said, the current chief minister, Pushkar Singh Dhami, who came to power approximately six months ago, has also helped to steady the BJP ship. Although Dhami has not measurably impacted the state yet, the fact that he has avoided the kind of controversies that haunted his predecessors has served the BJP well.
An analysis of this election indicates that women turned out in huge numbers for the BJP. In an unprecedented turn of events, women voters outnumbered male voters in 38 of the 70 assembly seats. The voting patterns appear to suggest that the double-engine philosophy has shaped up rather agreeably for the BJP. The BJP’s well-oiled electoral machinery — consisting of manpower, managerial efficiency and unlimited resources – has become formidable in Uttarakhand.
One party’s success is another’s undoing. The Congress is staring at a bleak future. It is no secret that the party has been faltering at the state as well as the national level. Its inability to take advantage of the anti-incumbency sentiment — as was the case in prior elections – is a marker of its decline. As things stand, it appears unable to challenge the BJP in Devbhoomi.
The 74-year-old Congress veteran Harish Rawat was insisting that the party declare him as the chief ministerial candidate. However, the party decided to go ahead with a collective leadership model. Ironically, Rawat has failed to win in his own constituency of Lalkuan, another disappointing result to follow up on his equally dismal performance in the 2017 elections when he had lost from Haridwar Gramin and Kichha. All signs suggest this could be the end of the road for Rawat. Going ahead, whether it is Rawat or a new leader that the Congress appoints, there is no denying that the party has to rise from the ashes, revamp its strategy and rebuild its organisation from scratch.
Lastly, it turned out to be an underwhelming result for the Aam Aadmi Party in their Uttarakhand state assembly election debut. Chief ministerial candidate Colonel Ajay Kothiyal fared poorly from the Gangotri assembly seat. The AAP failed to win a single seat. Unlike the Congress, however, the AAP can draw inspiration from its emphatic win in Punjab, and use that momentum in the upcoming urban local body elections in 2023 and the next Uttarakhand state assembly elections. In the event that the AAP does well in Punjab in the next five years, it will be a force to be reckoned with in 2027.
This column first appeared in the print edition on March 11, 2022 under the title ‘In Himalayas, saffron peak’. The writer is a social worker and the founder of Dehradun based SDC Foundation
