As External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar arrives in Russia this week for a bilateral visit, there is growing international interest in the potential Indian diplomatic contribution to ending the tragic war in Ukraine which is now in the ninth month and has shaken the world to its core.
India has reasons to be satisfied that there is a better appreciation of its position on Ukraine in the Western public discourse. In the last few months, the Western media and think tanks had been relentless in their criticism of the Indian approach to the crisis as lacking moral and strategic clarity in the face of Russia’s unprovoked aggression.
Through the last nine months, Delhi was reluctant to explicitly criticise Russian aggression against Ukraine and insisted on a dialogue between the warring parties. At the same time, India refused to endorse Russian aggression, underlined the importance of respecting the United Nations Charter, emphasised the inviolability of territorial sovereignty, warned against the use of nuclear weapons, and sought to draw attention to the economic impact of the war on the “Global South”.
In the Biden administration there was a measure of understanding of where Delhi was coming from and India’s long-standing equities in the relationship with Russia and the constraints it imposed on India. Official Washington never let the heat of the Ukraine crisis in Europe undermine the longer-term American imperative of engaging India to stabilise the Indo-Pacific. The same can’t be said about Europe, but then the continent was right in the middle of the gravest conflict since the Second World War. The European trauma from a shattered peace is real.
Recent reports in the US media recount the Indian diplomatic contribution at a few critical moments in the nine-month-long war — in helping overcome issues over the grain shipment deal from Ukraine and in reducing the growing risks of the war targeting the nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia in eastern Ukraine.
Can India take on a larger diplomatic role now? Good relations with Moscow and Washington do put South Block in an interesting position. But India is not the only channel of communication between the US and Russia. Nor are Washington and Moscow totally reliant on third parties.
The defence ministers of the two countries have frequently talked to each other reminding each other of their redlines in the war. Meanwhile, the onset of winter will increasingly limit the possibilities for military operations in Ukraine and would give a chance to both sides to pause, regroup and rethink their strategy and tactics.
Even more consequential are the shifting politics of the war among the belligerents. For Russian president Vladimir Putin, the special military operation that was to produce a quick victory in Ukraine has turned into a terrible misadventure. Russia has suffered huge military losses on the ground in manpower and equipment.
Putin’s current focus on destroying the Ukrainian cities and the occasional threat to use nuclear weapons underline Russia’s weakness in the Ukraine war rather than strength. From a military perspective, there is no easy way for Russia to secure a “victory” in this war. Putin might have no option but to consider an honourable draw that will save his political face and secure some territorial gains in Ukraine.
Can the same be said about the other Vladimir? (The Russians and Ukrainians both claim Vladimir or Volodymyr the Great of the 10th century as the founder of their nations).
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has led the country’s fight against Russian aggression with impressive determination. Unlike the Russian troops, the Ukrainian forces are trying to save their nation against aggression and have inflicted significant military defeats on the Russians.
But can Zelenskyy succeed in liberating all territories occupied by Russia, including Crimea which Russia took by force in 2014? Zelenskyy might like to fight on until he realises that goal, but there are second thoughts in the Western coalition that is backing him.
The West had bet that the massive sanctions it imposed after Moscow launched its war against Ukraine would bring the Russian economy to its knees. But Russia is still standing and the costs of the sanctions are beginning to have major effects on Western societies.
As the economic and energy costs of the war mount, there is growing political support in Europe for a quick resolution of the conflict. In the US, which has emerged as the main supporter of Ukraine, there are both Republicans and Democrats who are questioning the current American “blank cheque” for Ukraine. If the Republicans do well — as they are expected to — in this week’s midterm elections to the US Congress, the internal polarisation could sharpen and cast a shadow over American foreign policy, including the Ukraine strategy.
Although these developments need not be fatal to US strategy, Washington is beginning to recalibrate. In important private advice to Kyiv last week, Washington called for greater flexibility in Zelenskyy’s approach to negotiations with Putin.
Washington is not saying — at least for now — that Ukraine should sacrifice its territory for peace. But it is pointing out that Zelenskyy’s hardline might intensify the “Ukraine fatigue” in the West and fracture the anti-Western coalition against Russia.
The history of warfare tells us that room for diplomacy opens up only when there is a deadlock on the battlefield. Nine months after Russian aggression against Ukraine, we might have reached that moment. The coming weeks might see both sides making one or two major military moves and then begin to explore new negotiating frameworks.
That there is compulsion to negotiate does not mean there will be an early settlement. It simply means we are in a new phase in the conflict in which diplomacy could play a larger role. Although Delhi can’t be the principal peacemaker in Ukraine, there might be many modest and practical ways in which Indian diplomacy could contribute to the peace efforts.
The writer is a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute in Delhi and a contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express
