European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to India this week, accompanied by the entire College of Commissioners (the European Cabinet), marks a critical moment in the EU-India strategic partnership. Von der Leyen arrives in Delhi amid significant global political shifts triggered by Donald Trump’s return to the White House five weeks ago.
Although her visit was planned before Trump’s re-election, her mission to deepen ties with India has gained new urgency. It was a deliberate choice for von der Leyen to make India her first international destination in her second term as the President of the European Commission. For India, which is scrambling to navigate the turbulence unleashed by Trump, Europe emerges as a valuable partner.
Despite their traditional emphasis on “strategic autonomy,” both Brussels and Delhi have long relied on their partnerships with the US as the anchor of their global strategies. While neither can afford to disengage from the US, both India and Europe must now do more to strengthen their ties in response to Trump’s unpredictable policies.
Trump is not only reshaping US policy towards Ukraine and Russia but also walking away from longstanding alliances and upturning the global economic order. His approach puts a premium on striking deals with rival powers such as Russia and China. Until now, India’s strategy for managing US policy volatility has involved maintaining its ties with Russia and engaging in Moscow-led coalitions such as BRICS. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin is eager to negotiate a separate deal with Trump. Those in Delhi who recall the 1990s will remember how much the Russian elite aspired to be recognised as equal partners by the West. Some of Trump’s Asian allies now fear he might seek a similar rapprochement with China.
In other words, the great power dynamics between the US, Russia, and China are once again in flux. Over the past century, these three powers have alternated between being allies, friends, enemies and frenemies. India cannot take any relationship for granted. This reality necessitates broadening India’s strategic partnerships, and Europe remains the major missing link in India’s strategic calculus. Von der Leyen’s visit provides Delhi with the perfect opportunity to revitalise its engagement with the European Union — the world’s third-largest economy after the US and China, and a vital source of science, technology, advanced industry, capital, and a vast consumer market.
Europe has not been absent from India’s geopolitical considerations. Over the last decade, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has worked to overcome the prolonged neglect of India-EU relations. While the two sides proclaimed a strategic partnership in 2004, momentum had waned by the early 2010s. Trade talks stalled due to a lack of progress, and Brussels appeared disinterested in even convening regular summits with India. At the same time, the EU remained focused on its deep commercial ties with China, cultivated over three decades.
By 2016, India sought to reinvigorate its engagement with the EU, prompting Brussels to convene a long-overdue summit. In 2022, following the pandemic, the two sides resumed trade negotiations, expanded their security dialogue, established a Trade and Technology Council, and launched a connectivity initiative. At the G20 Summit in Delhi in September 2023, both parties announced the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). As India recognised Europe’s strategic value in a multipolar world, the EU also moved to “de-risk” its economic ties with China
and increase its engagement in the Indo-Pacific region.
Given Trump’s ambitions to reshape the post-war global order, neither Delhi nor Brussels can afford their traditionally meandering ways. Trump’s decision to end US support for Ukraine — which has been resisting Russian aggression since February 2022 — has left Europe in shock. To compound matters, Washington began direct talks with the Kremlin earlier this month in Riyadh, excluding both Ukraine and European representatives.
Further, Trump’s Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth recently told NATO allies that Europe must take primary responsibility for Ukraine’s security, increase defence spending, and prepare to defend itself against Russian threats. He also made it clear that the US would not indefinitely station troops in Europe, where approximately 1,00,000 American soldiers are currently deployed. Beyond remaking transatlantic relations, the Trump administration has launched an ideological offensive against European democracies. At the annual Munich Security Conference earlier this month, US Vice President J D Vance declared that Europe’s primary threats were not external, but internal and stem from uncontrolled immigration, unrealistic climate policies, and liberal extremism.
Adding further strain, Vance and Trump ally Elon Musk have openly supported right-wing parties in Europe, particularly Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD). During his visit to Munich, Vance bypassed Chancellor Olaf Scholz to meet AfD leader Alice Weidel. The AfD has more than doubled its electoral support in Sunday’s elections. Meanwhile, Friedrich Merz, leader of the centre-right CDU —which secured 29 per cent of the vote — has criticised the US policy on Ukraine and Russia, condemned its interference in German elections, and vowed to reduce, step-buy-step, German and European dependence on Washington. Given that the CDU has traditionally been one of Europe’s most pro-American parties, this shift signals a profound transformation in European politics.
India, by contrast, appears to have started Trump’s second term on a positive note, with Modi’s visit to the White House earlier this month. However, the real test lies in implementing the ambitious commitments both leaders have made. Negotiating a free trade agreement and raising bilateral trade to $500 billion annually by 2030 will be challenging, especially in the face of Trump’s emphasis on reciprocal tariffs.
More broadly, India’s strategy had assumed that the globalised economic order was irreversible. Trump is determined to dismantle that order. Meanwhile, India’s trade deficit with China continues to rise, fueled by an ongoing boom in Chinese exports. Unless India takes decisive steps to reduce its dependence on Chinese imports, the deficit — already nearing $100 billion annually — will grow even further. The answer lies in renewing economic reform at home and rebooting India’s strategic partnerships, especially with Europe. The synergies between India and Europe are real and the bilateral partnership remains underdeveloped. Von der Leyen’s visit provides an opportunity for India and Europe to make amends at this pivotal moment of accelerating history.
The writer is contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express
