Its calm now but the night sky may light up again, Mohammed Sarjiani,an aide of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi,said on the phone. It was early afternoon in Tripoli and Sarjiani was hopeful: perhaps criticism from the Arab Leagues Amr Moussa would bring an end to the anti-aircraft fire,to Operation Odyssey Dawn. What is happening in Libya differs from the aim of imposing a no-fly zone, Amr Moussa had said,but he buckled,choosing,again,to endorse the intervention in Libya.
For the Western allies,the Arab backing lends a credence to their air strikes. In fact,it was a call from the Arab League that lent momentum to the passing of UN Resolution 1973 on imposing a no-fly zone over Libya. The move was unprecedented the Arab League,a divisive body,spoke with one voice from Cairo. They called it an Arab duty to act,in keeping with the democratic fervour that now grips the Middle East.
Yet,how the revolutionary fever has changed. From peaceful demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt,the Libyan misadventure has changed colours. Pixellated mobile recordings that relayed news so far have now been replaced by night vision on CNN as the night sky is lit,as Tripoli gets hit.
Spearheading this move has been Moussa,the Egyptian head of the Arab League. It has been his backdoor manoeuvring that unified the body. Moussa is a politician who has recently graduated from the school of revolution. Note that he has announced his decision to run for presidency in a new Egypt,an Egypt devoid of the old Pharaoh,Hosni Mubarak.
The Arab League,curiously,now enjoys the support of the Saudis. But Saudi Arabia,which has shunned one eccentric dictator,is partaking in a programme of gagging in Bahrain.
For,the democracy movements do not stop in Libya. Bahrainis too have been clamouring; Shias demand an end to the 200-year-old Sunni monarchy in the Kingdom of Bahrain. No air strikes light Bahraini skies,instead foot soldiers have marched into the country to silence the protesters.
Four political activists have been shot in broad daylight in Manama and thugs in ski masks have intimidated protesters,but the Arab League has not spoken up. The government has shut down hospitals in Manama,an illegal move under international law,yet no UN resolution has been passed. Instead,for the first time in its history,the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC),more an economic body than a defence outfit,took to neutralising the situation. Troops from Saudi Arabia entered,first under the Peninsula Shield Forces; they were followed by soldiers from the UAE and Qatar and warships from Kuwait. A stable Bahrain would ensure citizens of the GCC would remain obedient,would remain terrified.
Syrians too have taken to the streets in an unprecedented move triggered by the arrest of political activists and youth who had protested against the rule of Bashar al-Assad by painting graffiti on the walls. At least five were shot dead on Wednesday. The woes of the Syrians are similar to those of the Egyptians who revolted: low employment opportunities and no political participation. A stable Syria is in the interest of Arab states as a buffer to Israel. The Syrian adventure has thus been brushed under the carpet,yet the town of Deraa,the focal point of unrest,sees unarmed civilians facing off AK-47-wielding forces.
Meanwhile,dangerous developments have taken hold of Yemen. Government forces loyal to President Ali Abdullah Saleh have opened fire in the capital even as the number of defectors from the government mounts and talk of a coup resonates. Ruling Yemen is like dancing on the heads of snakes, Saleh once said. Now the venom is spewed from outside the walls of his presidential compound. But Yemen is a country fighting an insurgency in the north and a secessionist movement in the south and it is unclear how it would unravel with Salehs departure.
A new Middle East is indeed being forged,a Middle East that wants more freedoms. And the Arab world,through Libya,indicates that it is on the side of democracy movements. Libya is the battlefield that they have chosen to act in; Libya is a safe bet. But the forces of Gaddafi continue to fight for him. And the colonel,defiant as ever,has called on the Islamic armies to fight.
But the question the allies should ask is who would lead Libya in his absence. They have partnered with the Senussi clan,the very monarchists that Gaddafi overthrew. The question is,who knows the rebels in ski masks? What are their credentials to rule? And will they negotiate once the night sky is calm?
alia.allana@expressindia.com
