Heavy ships don’t rock much. The analogy, if applied to Maharashtra’s three-party Mahayuti government, doesn’t quite work. Almost four months since coming to power, the strongest-ever ruling combine in the state — with a strength of 235 in the 288-member assembly — is anything but steady. As the Devendra Fadnavis government presents its first budget today, on March 10, it is lost on no one that the challenge to the BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP alliance is not from the Opposition but from within.
The first, as-yet-unresolved, issue that hit the BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP government was regarding the constitutionally unrecognised posts of “guardian ministers”. Way back in 1972, the then Maharashtra chief minister Vasantrao Naik had assigned some cabinet colleagues as point-persons for underdeveloped districts to help accelerate their growth. Subsequently, it became a practice to appoint a “guardian minister” for each district, who de facto controlled fund allocation in local development planning. Naik and a few chief ministers who followed ensured that no cabinet member was appointed as the guardian minister of his/her home district. However, like many good practices, this too was given the go-by.
Now, ministers are assigned their home districts, putting them in a far more advantageous position vis-a-vis their political rivals. This explains the no-holds-barred public spat between members of the three ruling parties, all jostling to “guard” their respective districts at the public’s expense. The situation turned so ugly that Fadnavis was compelled to stay some of the appointments. But the damage had been done. Not only did the issue expose cracks in the ruling combine, it also highlighted the fragile unity amongst the three parties running the state. It also painted the sulking Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, who could barely hide his displeasure, in poor light.
Then came the Dhananjay Munde episode that badly dented the government’s image. After a three-month drama, he finally resigned from the cabinet last week. Munde, a former BJP leader and nephew of late BJP veteran Gopinath Munde, had played a crucial role in bringing Ajit Pawar, the powerful nephew of Sharad Pawar, closer to the BJP. Until last week, he was considered indispensable to Ajit and his NCP. So when a close aide of Munde from Marathwada was implicated in the murder of sarpanch Santosh Deshmukh, the BJP leadership initially tried to look the other way. However, the local BJP MLA’s relentless attacks and media exposes on Munde Jr finally compelled Fadnavis to seek his resignation. There is now a clamour for the resignation of another minister, Manikrao Kokate — also belonging to the Ajit Pawar-led NCP — following his indictment by a local court in a cheating case. With one minister forced to quit and another likely on his way out, the situation has, expectedly, rejuvenated the Opposition.
The ramifications go beyond politics, as these issues along with regular rumblings, seem to have impacted the state government’s efficacy, with Fadnavis being forced to intervene in altercations between alliance partners. With public displays of incompatibility, the Maharashtra government looks far from being united in governance and, as a result, is yet to get down to business. How bad is the situation? One can only guess from Fadnavis’s recent statement, made to assure investors that “political extortions” won’t have any place in his government.
For, Fadnavis knows how precarious the state finances are. Maharashtra’s debt mountain is close to Rs 8 lakh crore, with a fiscal deficit of Rs 1 lakh crore. In addition, the state is staring at an outgo of Rs 46,000 crore this fiscal, thanks to the Ladki Bahin scheme announced ahead of the elections. In the last two years, Fadnavis’s predecessor Shinde had gone into overdrive, announcing one populist scheme after another. Shinde’s intention was to prove that he is not an accidental chief minister and that he can get the combine reelected. Although he succeeded in his mission, the state ended up footing the bill. And despite proving his mettle, Shinde was relegated to the post of Deputy CM, sharing it with Ajit Pawar, while his former deputy Fadnavis became the leader of the three-party coalition.
Fadnavis’s biggest challenge now is ending all financial profligacy and bringing Maharashtra back into the reckoning. With signs of an industrial sector slow-down and Mumbai’s much-touted services sector looking worn out, Maharashtra is in search of the missing investment. Although Fadnavis is seen making every possible effort, the Rs 15 lakh crore investment agreements he signed in Davos last December are yet to materialise on the ground.
How daunting is the task before the Maharashtra government? A comparison with Tamil Nadu (TN) can explain. Once far behind Maharashtra, TN, which is half its size, has overtaken the richest state in per capita net state domestic product. Although Maharashtra, with Rs 42.67 lakh crore GSDP tops the list, its per capita GSDP is Rs 2.89 lakh, whereas Tamil Nadu with Rs 31.55 lakh crore GSDP has Rs 3.50 lakh per capita GSDP. Simply put, a Tamilian today is relatively richer than the Marathi manoos.
With the going getting increasingly tough as more and more states get competitive, Maharashtra can ill afford its business-as-usual attitude. No one knows this better than Fadnavis, the man in the hot seat. His government’s first budget today will test his navigation skills as well as his ability to steady the large ship he is in charge of steering.
The writer is editor, Loksatta
