As the world grapples with uncertainty over the Trump administration’s stance on its friends and allies, and Europe struggles to interpret Trump’s proclamations, an important election took place at the African Union Commission (AUC) in Addis Ababa. Ethiopia, the host nation, had chosen not to contest for any positions, but the most crucial election was that of the AU Commission chairperson, the most significant figure within the AU system. This is separate from the African Union chairperson, which rotates annually among the five regions, with Angola taking over from Mauritania this year. Notably, Comoros held the AU chair during India’s G20 presidency in 2023.
The two terms of Chad foreign minister Faki Mahamat as AU Commission chairperson will end in March. While AU commissioners are elected by foreign ministers in executive council meetings, the chairperson and deputy chairperson are elected by the summit, requiring regional diversity and gender balance.
This time, it was Eastern Africa’s turn to provide the AUC chair. Since the AU’s establishment in 2002, previous chairs included President Alpha Oumar Konare of Mali, followed by foreign minister Jean Ping of Gabon, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma of South Africa, and Mahamat. Given the post’s significance, elections often become contentious. The Eastern Bloc initially fielded candidates from Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Madagascar, and Mauritius.
The most vigorous campaign was led by former Kenyan prime minister Raila Odinga, who received full backing from President William Ruto and several East African leaders. It was widely assumed that Kenya’s diplomatic efforts had secured commitments from 28 countries in favour of Odinga. However, as the competition evolved, changes occurred. Mauritius dropped its candidate following a government transition, and Somalia withdrew its only female contender from Eastern Africa. Ultimately, the contest narrowed to three main candidates: Odinga from Kenya, Djibouti foreign minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, and former Madagascar foreign minister Richard Randriamandrato.
The election process extended into seven rounds before a two-thirds majority was achieved. In the first two rounds, Odinga maintained a lead over Youssouf. By the sixth round, Youssouf had overtaken Raila. In the seventh round, Raila was asked to step down as he lacked majority support. Youssouf secured 33 votes, reaching the required two-thirds threshold and was declared the winner.
The election also saw the appointment of the Algerian ambassador to Ethiopia, Salma Hadid, as deputy chairperson. She succeeded Monique Nsanzabaganwa of Rwanda who had held the role for two terms. Nigerian Bankole Adeoye retained his position as commissioner for Peace and Security.
Gender parity efforts remain limited: Despite aspirations for gender balance, female candidates continue to be relegated to the deputy chairperson position, while men dominate the chairperson race.
Preference for ministerial-level candidates: AU leaders favour a chairperson who does not see themselves as their equal. This worked in favour of Youssouf, who, as Djibouti’s long-serving foreign minister, had organisational experience but no aspirations of challenging AU leaders politically. Odinga’s tenure as Kenya’s prime minister and repeated presidential bids may have made some member states wary of his leadership.
Younger leadership is favoured: The AU appears to prefer younger candidates. Odinga, nearing 80, was at a disadvantage compared to Youssouf, who, despite two decades as foreign minister, is only 60.
Preference for chairpersons from smaller nations: While major nations can secure commissioner roles, the AU favours a chairperson from smaller nations, emphasising expertise over national influence. This trend benefitted Djibouti and Madagascar over Kenya. Past chairs have also come from relatively smaller countries such as Mali, Gabon and Chad. The sole exception was South Africa, but its tenure seems to have reinforced this preference for smaller states.
Francophone and Arab influences remain strong: Despite France’s waning influence in Africa, Francophone and Arab League-backed candidates still hold significant sway over AU elections. The Commonwealth’s influence within AU elections remains minimal, while the Francophone bloc (through the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie) and the Arab League continue to back their candidates successfully. This explains why, except for South Africa, all past AU Commission chairpersons have been French-speaking.
Implications for India: For India, Youssouf’s election presents an opportunity. Unlike Faki Mahamat, who remained distant from India and was indifferent to India-Africa engagements, Youssouf has shown a more favourable stance. He has attended Indian events, including the 2015 India-Africa Forum Summit (IAFS-IV), and accompanied Djibouti’s president on visits to India. He has also participated in Voice of the Global South summits and appreciates India’s contributions to Africa and the AU Commission.
Mahamat’s tenure saw limited engagement with India, despite India’s instrumental role in securing the AU’s G20 membership during its presidency. Moreover, he attempted to shift future IAFS summits to locations like Mauritania, limiting India’s role in AU affairs. Youssouf’s leadership offers an opportunity for India to re-engage with the AU Commission meaningfully. With Djibouti’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean, there is potential to strengthen India-Africa ties, making this an ideal moment to work towards a successful IAFS-IV this year.
The writer is former Indian ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union
