Avatar The Way of Water box office prediction: James Cameron film books 1 million tickets in advance, to earn Rs 40 cr on Day 1 in India

‘Avatar 2 will create box office history’ 

Film exhibitor Akshaye Rathi is “looking at some historic collections” with the release of Avatar 2. He told indianexpress.com, “I am sure it will grow into highest grossing Hollywood film this year. It will also be the highest-grossing Hollywood film of all time in this country because James Cameron is truly a visionary beyond being a filmmaker. I don’t think anyone crafts big screen spectacles which are immersive as he does. Even the first Avatar, when it came two decades ago, it revolutionised the way technology is used and married with storytelling to create great cinematic experiences.” He predicted the film’s opening day collection to be somewhere around Rs 35-40 crore in all the languages.

However, the big hiccup for Avatar 2 would be that it will release in India only on around 3000 screens. Film producer and trade analyst, Girish Johar shared that there is a “massive craze” around the movie but it will release only in the 2k format. Akshaye Rathi further explained, “Hollywood films do not release in every kind of projection system.”

The big gap between Avatar and Avatar 2 has prompted questions about whether moviegoers are still interested in the franchise. Johar suggested, “Avatar has been a huge film and people have been watching it on small screens all these years, so there is a good awareness level among the audience. Recently, they also re-released the first part in the theaters, so its fans are waiting to watch the second version on the big screen.” He pegged the film’s opening day collection in all the languages at Rs 40 crore.

‘Will Avatar 2 be profitable in a changed market?’

While all the eyes are on Avatar 2’s performance at the box office, James Cameron is unsure about his film’s future. He recently told Reuters, “Can we be profitable in changed market? Or are we just the last dinosaur dying after the comet hit? I couldn’t tell you that right now. What does worry me is the market has contracted due to the kind of double punch of streaming and the pandemic.”

The budget of the epic sci-fi film has not been disclosed officially by the makers but estimates say that a humongous $350 million have been spent on the film, making it the most expensive film ever made. Going by the craze around the film in India, it seems the film will recover a good share of this amount from the country.

In India, Avatar 2 would find most of its audience in Tier 1 cities. But with reasonable ticket prices, the film might also pull in people even in Tier 2 and Tier 3 towns. Akshaye Rathi said, “Predominately, Avatar 2 caters to a more urban audience. I wouldn’t be surprised if it does reasonably well, if not exceptionally well in Tier 2 and Tier 3 towns as well. It must be made accessible financially and intellectually to the largest possible audience by keeping up the right ticket pricing. If we can incentivise the Tier 2 and Tier 3 audience with a more reasonable ticket price then sure they will turn up for this.”

‘Avatar has reached 1 mn ticket in advance sales’

The advance sale of tickets in the country is growing with each day. At the time of writing this story, the national cinema chains PVR, INOX and Cinepolis have already sold almost 4.5 lakh tickets. Film trade analyst Taran Adarsh reported, “#Avatar *advance booking* status at *national chains* [#PVR, #INOX, #Cinepolis]… Till Wednesday, 11 am…⭐️ F: 1,84,096 ⭐️ S: 1,38,577 ⭐️ S: 1,19,287 ⭐️ Total tickets sold: 4,41,960 #AvatarTheWayOfWater.”

Ashish Saksena, COO – Cinemas, BookMyShow, said, “Avatar: The Way of Water has already reached 1 million tickets in advance bookings on BookMyShow and is expected to accelerate as the movie gears up for its release on December 16. The English version of the film is in the lead for ticket sales on BookMyShow, but is closely followed by the Hindi version demonstrating the franchise’s strong and language-agnostic appeal.”

He also shared that the cinephiles in Bengaluru, Mumbai, Chennai and Hyderabad were the first ones to grab tickets for Avatar 2.

While Film Exhibitors United Organisation of Kerala (FEUOK) were at the loggerheads with the makers of Avatar 2 over the profit-sharing terms, it seems the issues have been resolved. The film’s craze is quite high down south in Kerala. It will be released in around 300 screens in the state. Vijaykumar, president of the Film Exhibitors United Organisation of Kerala (FEUOK), shared, “The expectations are very high for Avatar 2 in Kerala. We are expecting a record collection. It will release on 300 screens. Most Hollywood films open on less than 100 screens. We believe this film will collect a minimum of Rs 100 crore in Kerala alone. Avatar 1 had at the time collected Rs 10 crore.”

However, in Tamil Nadu, the film’s fate will be decided only after release. “The booking is very average in Tamil Nadu. The expectations for Avatar 2 are low compared to Avatar 1. We can only know how this film will perform after the opening. The producers are still in talks with the exhibitors and not many theatres have been confirmed. At its current condition, it would release on about 200 screens here. Usually, big Hollywood films get between 400 and 450 screens in Tamil Nadu,” Tiruppur Subramaniam, President, Tamil Nadu Theater Owner Association said.

The first reactions to Avatar: The Way of Water have started pouring in, and critics and moviegoers are unanimous in their praise for Cameron’s style of filmmaking. Now, only time will tell if Avatar 2 will replace Avatar as the highest-grossing film worldwide.