India’s much-vaunted GDP growth rate — making it the world’s fastest-growing large economy — slipped in the last year. Apart from the near-term consequences, this also means the longer-term goal of Viksit Bharat, to transform India into a developed nation by 2047, slips further away. Understandably, policy priorities are focused on getting back on the fast-growth track: Consistently over 8 per cent growth annually is needed to make it to the viksit threshold. But a different objective — green growth — might need equal attention.
India’s other long-term goal is to reach net-zero emissions by 2070. A lot needs to be accomplished in the near-term to get there, such as 50 per cent reduction of emissions intensity, 500 GW of fuel capacity from renewable sources, and around US $290 billion in investments in new wind and solar energy sources — all by 2030.
The Fletcher School at Tufts University in the US and Worley, a leading global professional services company of energy, chemicals and resources experts, collaborated on a research initiative to better understand where the Viksit Bharat and net-zero journeys intersect. We found that to head towards one destination, you need to aim for the other as well. The topic has returned front and centre in policy conversations in New Delhi, including at the 2025 Raisina Dialogue in the context of the shifting ground beneath the “global green deal”.
Green growth will help keep India on the fast track: At first glance, the two directions of travel appear to be at odds. India’s fast growth is heavily reliant on carbon-intensive activities. A major contributor to the recent slowdown in GDP growth was a slowdown in emissions-intensive manufacturing. Coal accounts for 55-60 per cent of the country’s power generation with demand not expected to peak until 2030-2035.
However, if India strays too far from its green growth journey, it could be knocked off the fast-growth path as well. High carbon-intensity activities escalate climate risks that, if unattended, will shave off the growth rate.
There are numerous ways in which this could happen: The impact of climate risks on agriculture could amount to a 2.8 per cent of GDP loss by 2030; lost labour productivity due to extreme heat could cost the economy $220 billion by 2030. Overall, extreme heat could cut 2.5-4.5 per cent from GDP by 2030, climbing to a 10 per cent plunge by 2050; carbon cost penalties imposed by importers of Indian goods could cost $150 billion annually in export revenues by 2040 if industries are not decarbonised; a reliance on imported fossil fuels — 85 per cent of crude oil and 50 per cent of natural gas are imported — could leave the economy exposed to price volatility, and geopolitical and supply chain shocks.
Conversely, green growth contributes to fast growth. It creates jobs — 50 million new jobs in India by 2070 — according to the World Economic Forum’s Mission 2070 report. This translates to $1 trillion in additional economic value by 2030 and up to $15 trillion by 2070. It promotes opportunities for manufacturing and technology innovations, which have significant spillover effects in productivity and faster growth. It enhances health, which has multiplier effects. Energy security puts India in a stronger position to weather global shocks and to stand more firmly on the geopolitical stage.
A holistic strategy could hasten progress: The recently announced 2025 Union Budget prioritised fast growth while advancing several green initiatives, the most notable being a plan to develop 100 GW of nuclear capacity by 2047. It also included support for manufacturing of solar equipment and grid-scale batteries as well as incentives to boost scrap materials and critical mineral recycling.
There is potential to go even further with a holistic growth strategy and commitment of resources for green growth across three important dimensions: First, India must combine a comprehensive renewables capacity-building plan with investments in climate adaptation while ensuring the wider ecosystems — transmission, storage, public-private collaborations, carbon capture and storage, etc. — are in place. Second, a holistic strategy should pay close attention to the demand side. Farmers, comprising 45 per cent of the workforce, need access to affordable climate-resilient infrastructure, drought-resistant crops and farming practices. In parallel, micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), which contribute 30 per cent of GDP, generally lack access to sustainable technologies and finances. In addition to education, subsidies and incentives, there are other tools, from carbon pricing to green finance schemes, that could be advanced. Third, where green growth is at odds with fast growth, these disruptions could be anticipated and actively managed. Some sectors may experience slowdowns as capital is reallocated towards less carbon-intensive activities and sectors. States tied up with coal would need help reskilling their workers and re-building their economies, potentially subsidised by states that are economic beneficiaries of the greening of India.
A greener, faster-growing India is within reach: Creating the energy infrastructure that keeps pace with the demands of “viksit” proportions while ensuring an effective green transition is not only a tall order, it is a monumental undertaking — even if the 2047 goal is achieved in later years. The most effective way to execute a complex strategy at the scale and pace that India demands would be to pair India’s growing expertise with best-in-class international players. These collaborations could span technical areas, skill development, the management of complex projects along with innovative financing. To attract international expertise and capital cognisant of the many uncertainties not only in India but across the global landscape, a scenario-based strategy would help to navigate India’s divergent economic landscapes and evolving policy climate.
Cutting edge-technology and innovation will be key; the options run the gamut: Green hydrogen, grid modernisation, critical minerals, battery technology innovations, carbon capture, utilisation and storage and water and waste-water management. Even the integration of large-scale renewable capacity into the existing grid presents novel technical challenges. On the funding front, international financial institutions and corporations can assist in structuring green bonds, and blended finance models. Multilateral development banks can offer guarantees that encourage private sector players in key risky sectors, such as green hydrogen and grid modernisation.
Then, of course, there is the human capital question. The renewables sector will need 3.7 million skilled workers by 2030, and collaborative endeavours can help with skill-building and re-skilling. Can India have growth that is both fast and green to achieve its bold 2047 and 2070 goals? Much can and will happen in that time, but the research findings are clear. A pre-condition for getting to the long-term goals is a healthier and greener India in the near-term, and that ought to be within reach.
Chakravorti is dean of Global Business at The Fletcher School at Tufts University, founding executive director of Fletcher’s Institute for Business in the Global Context and nonresident senior fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress. He is author of The Slow Pace of Fast Change and his most recent book is Defeating Disinformation (co-edited with Joel Trachtman). Law is senior vice president and head of strategy at Worley and most recently an associate partner at McKinsey
