Not content with just satisfying their bare necessities, Indians have emerged as the “aspirant manush”, people who expect a rapid transformation of their “bare lives” into “good lives”. This aspiration now marks political behaviour in urban India. People now rely on the state for this qualitative transformation of their standard of living. One way in which this desire and expectation is manifested is through the deepening of democracy at the grass roots.
Rapid urbanisation means that new geographical and social spaces are coming under the ambit of urban governance. So, the results of the Uttar Pradesh urban local body (ULBs) elections can be seen as a barometer of the winds of change in society. Notably, district towns such as Maharajganj, Amroha, and Kushinagar saw a higher voter turnout than big cities like Prayagraj and Gorakhpur. However, the voting percentage for most of the mayoral seats in the urban local body elections saw an increase.
Even in the big cities, the turnout was significantly higher in areas that recently came within city limits compared to the city centres. This shows the rising belief in and expectation from the democratic-government apparatus. It is also a signal that the peripheries of urban zones now expect equality in terms of attention from the state, participation in governance and policies and programmes. It is through democratic participation that the route to development passes.
UP was caught up in these elections for a month and they resulted in an impressive victory of the BJP in all urban bodies from the Nagar Palikas and Nagar Panchayats to the mayoral seats. The results make it clear that the social welfare programmes focussed on the poor and their implementation undertaken by the Yogi Adityanath-led state government continues to yield electoral dividends for the BJP.
The fact is that in UP, like in many other Indian states, the urban sphere is not merely one occupied by the middle class and elites. A massive section of the people are poor, often living in slums. Even in local bodies’ elections, they see the “largesse” of the “double-engine sarkar” as something that helps them make ends meet, even survive. In this sense, this ULB election result made the “double-engine sarkar” a “triple-engine sarkar” in most of UP.
In the past, local elections were a contest between competing local interests. It was at this level that social bases and connections mattered. The image CM Adityanath has cultivated has been able to transcend this “localness” (sthaniyata) and draw voters across neighbourhoods, castes and communities to the BJP. His campaign against the mafia has likely deepened his popularity: We have often observed that land grabbing by criminals is a major concern for the urban public with the rapid increase in urbanisation in states like UP. However, the killing of Atiq Ahmed may have contributed to shoring up a section of Muslim voters against the BJP and in favour of the AIMIM, led by Asaduddin Owaisi in certain parts of the state. It may also have led to strategic voting against the BJP and in favour of the SP and BSP.
The ULB election shows that the BJP’s base in urban areas is still intact – visible in the near complete domination of the BJP’s mayoral candidates. However, in Nagar Palikas and Nagar Panchayats, which contain suburbs, rural fringes and dehaats (in essence, villages), the SP and BSP managed to register their presence. As we know, a section of the SP and BSP’s base lies on the outskirts of towns and cities and in rural areas around them.
A question often asked by political observers is whether local bodies’ elections can serve as an indicator of the wider appeal of political parties. I believe that while that is not always the case, there are instances where it can hint at the direction of assembly and Lok Sabha elections. In UP, the latter seems to be the case. In the state, the BJP has established itself across regions and social groups. The party leadership will likely be pleased with the ULB poll result and what it signifies for the 2024 general election.
The writer is professor, Govind Ballabh Pant Social Science Institute, Allahabad
