The countdown for the 2024 general elections has begun. In Indian psephology, the idea of the “Muslim vote” generally evokes interest, especially in the context of the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This is due to several reasons. First, the BJP’s relationship with the Muslims has been historically contentious. Second, Muslims perhaps constitute the only social group that has been beyond the BJP’s political reach so far. Further, the Opposition’s “Muslim” politics is predicated on instilling a fear of the BJP. However, the election of 2024 is shaping up to be different. I analyse the six factors that have the potential to effect a turning point in the relationship of Muslims with the BJP and PM Modi.
One, the BJP and PM Modi have been repeatedly invoking issues of social justice to address anomalies within the Muslim community. The Pasmandas — a social sub-group representing the most backward Muslims constituting roughly 80 per cent of the Indian Muslim population — form the core of this strategy. The party’s willingness to accommodate Pasmandas promises to end the hegemony of elites in Muslim politics. By making calls for greater democratisation and inclusivity in Muslim politics, the BJP seeks to address the key Pasmanda demand — not to view the Muslims as a monolith. Not only does this mark the first official attempt of the BJP to co-opt Muslims, but it is also the first time the Pasmandas are in the political spotlight.
Two, the Modi government has also prioritised issues of gender justice in certain community personal laws. The abolishing of the archaic practice of instant triple talaq, which incidentally is not prevalent even in Islamic nations, has found resounding support amongst nine crore Muslim women.
Three, PM Modi has sought to redefine welfarism as a political duty covering a wide spectrum of human needs — food, housing, sanitation, gas, water, health, etc. The Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana fed 810 million Indians during the existential crisis of the pandemic. No home has been left out because of the name on the door. The Modi government has carved out a specific category of labharthis (beneficiaries) within the economically marginalised Pasmandas. In some cases, the Muslim labharthis have benefited in a proportion higher than their population. For instance, while Uttar Pradesh has a 19 per cent Muslim population, the beneficiaries under PM Awas Yojana, Ujjawala Yojna and Mudra Yojana range from 24-30 per cent. This has lent credence to the PM’s promise of “sabka saath, sabka vikas, sabka vishwas, sabka prayas” and antyodaya (development without discrimination) among Muslims.
The introduction of the PM Vishvakarma scheme is a fillip to socially disadvantaged group-led enterprises and artisans such as tailors, barbers, weavers, etc. The 18 crafts listed under the scheme mirror the occupational profile of a large number of backward caste Muslims.
Four, India’s relations with the Islamic world are arguably undergoing their best phase. PM Modi has used his personal imprint on foreign policy to impart substance to ties. The transformation of ties – from being simple “trade partners” to “strategic partners” – reflects a growing convergence. The centrality of India in the proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor is a manifestation of this new partnership. In recognition of PM Modi’s efforts to strengthen relations, many Islamic countries – the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Palestine, Afghanistan, Maldives and Egypt – have conferred their highest civilian awards on him. These gains would not have been possible if the Muslim world felt that the Indian Muslims were being discriminated against.
Five, no major communal riot has occurred since 2014. Analysis of data from the National Crime Records Bureau of riot cases registered since the 1970s reveals that India is at its most peaceful in 50 years, as riots have been on a decline. In a recent interview to the Financial Times, Modi invoked the success of the Parsis, a religious micro-minority residing in India, while stating that the Indian society does not discriminate against any religious minority.
Finally, and most importantly, the issue of national interest and security. The Muslim community should not be oblivious that India needs a strong and stable government given the many global conflicts — such as between Ukraine and Russia, Israel and Palestine — terrorism and China’s expansionist attitude towards its neighbours including India, Vietnam, Philippines etc. PM Modi has demonstrated courage and statesmanship in navigating these challenges. In contrast, the opposition camp, as a ship without a captain, at this critical juncture offers no alternative. India’s experiments with short-lived alliance governments in the 1990s incurred enormous international economic and strategic costs.
These issues show why Muslims should consider choosing Modi and the BJP in the 2024 elections. They are conscious that the BJP has won the past two general elections without any significant Muslim votes. The 2023 UP urban local body polls and by-elections in the Muslim-dominated Rampur Lok Sabha and Suar assembly in UP, and Boxanagar in Tripura show a promising trend for the BJP from these engagements. 2024 represents an opportunity for Muslims to move beyond the negativity of the opposition’s politics and choose the pragmatic path of progress and national interest. For this, Modi is their best choice.
The writer, former Vice-Chancellor of Aligarh Muslim University, is National Vice-President of the BJP
