In the absence of a deal, US President Donald Trump’s 50 per cent tariffs on India kicked in on Wednesday. As tariff wars intensify and strategic diplomatic efforts unfold in key regions, the Indo-Pacific becomes the main arena for these global dynamics. Smaller powers like India, Japan, and their Asian counterparts must find a way to protect their national interests without falling prey to the schemes of larger rivals.
President Donald Trump’s renewed threats of 200 per cent tariffs on China if the US is denied crucial exports like magnets, 100 per cent tariffs on Russia to pressure an end to the Ukraine conflict, and now a 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods have sent shockwaves through global markets and diplomatic circles.
What is distinctive about Trump’s strategy is not only the magnitude of the punitive measures proposed but also the frequency and unpredictability with which they are expressed. The nomination of Sergio Gor as Ambassador to India and Special Envoy for South and Central Asia appears to be less about strengthening ties and more about enforcing Trump’s policies. This reflects a transactional approach to regional engagement, emphasising compliance over genuine cooperation. If this approach continues, the US risks alienating regional players, making real progress harder to achieve.
Amidst the headline-grabbing trade wars, the Tokyo International Conference for African Development (TICAD-9) has largely gone unnoticed by the media in India. TICAD reflects Japan’s ongoing efforts to expand its influence in regions beyond its immediate neighbourhood. The conference highlighted investments, development partnerships, and an aspirational plan for African engagement.
It is essential, however, to balance enthusiasm with a historical perspective. The idea of pan-Asian cooperation, exemplified by the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere, was first promoted by Imperial Japan in the 1930s and 40s. Framed as a way to oppose Western imperialism, this concept ultimately served as a guise for Japanese expansion, exploitation, and dominance. British India itself faced the stark realities of Japanese ambitions, emphasising the dangers of sugar-coating regional initiatives that hide the goal of establishing hegemony.
With the US and China dominating the Far East and Indo-Pacific waters, the region now serves as the main arena of competition between the two superpowers. The South China Sea, East China Sea, and surrounding maritime areas have become points of contention, marked by frequent displays of force, naval incidents, and diplomatic brinkmanship.
In this fractured environment, countries such as Japan, India, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia must master the art of balancing significant power interests with their national priorities. Bilateral and mini-lateral groupings (Quad, RCEP, ASEAN) serve as platforms for bargaining, negotiating, and hedging against the risks of relying on a single approach. Economic and developmental collaborations increasingly complement security partnerships, though every opportunity must be weighed against potential risks of dependency on a single power or encroachment on their sovereignty.
India, for one, cannot afford complacency. The new world order emerging after the Cold War is neither unipolar nor fully multipolar yet. It is a transitional phase where rules are being rewritten, alliances are being tested, and new actors are staking their claims.
India’s strategic culture, shaped by its history with foreign domination, the British Raj, Japanese incursions during WWII, and the Cold War’s tense binary, instils a deep caution towards grand schemes and externally driven development models. The lesson is clear: while engagement benefits Indian interests, blind trust or excessive reliance on external promises can backfire.
As Tokyo aims to restore its influence through platforms like TICAD, India must evaluate the strategic calculus: What are the immediate benefits? What are the associated costs? And how much do these alignments enhance or threaten Indian autonomy in the Indo-Pacific?
Japan is set to announce a landmark increase in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to India during the Prime Minister’s visit, doubling its commitment to an unprecedented 10 trillion yen. This substantial boost underscores Japan’s strategic interest in strengthening economic and technological ties with India, positioning both countries to capitalise on growth opportunities in manufacturing, infrastructure, and advanced sectors. The announcement signals Japan’s resolve to deepen its partnership amid shifting global supply chains and volatile trade dynamics, providing India with crucial resources to enhance competitiveness and innovation in the evolving multipolar world order.
India should continue building a diverse range of partnerships, maintaining connections with Western countries, fostering friendly relations with Asian counterparts, and strengthening ties with African and Latin American nations. Whenever possible, India ought to focus on localising supply chains, investing in regional resilience, and utilising bilateral trade agreements to counteract tariff shocks or trade disruptions.
India’s longstanding doctrine of strategic autonomy must be reaffirmed. This means resisting any moves, such as US diktats, Chinese expansion, or Japanese entreaties, that endanger sovereign decision-making, economic independence, or military preparedness.
Active participation in multilateral platforms remains essential. India should lead reforms at the WTO, IMF, and World Bank that foster fairness, transparency, and equitable growth. These platforms act as defences against unilateral disruptions and support the stability of the international order.
India cannot afford to forget its history. Whether evaluating Japanese offers or American initiatives, every proposal must undergo thorough scrutiny for signs of past expansionism, hidden conditionalities, or geopolitical strings attached.
Ultimately, external stability can only be leveraged if internal capabilities are strong. Investments in local industry, technological innovation, education, and defence readiness are essential to withstand international shocks — such as tariffs and trade wars.
The writer is a lieutenant colonel, former Armoured Corps officer, defence analyst and strategic thinker
