It was just before the results of the 2014 Lok Sabha election. I was at the Congress party’s headquarters on Akbar Road in Delhi. A party worker at the nearly deserted headquarters asked why I looked so downcast. I had been on TV defending the UPA’s economic record, but the looming drubbing was written on my face. There was a palpable Modi wave and a historic defeat was upon us. I responded honestly — we both knew the reason. What he said next saddened me immensely and has stayed with me ever since: “Why are you sad? Leaders are never in opposition. Only workers are in opposition. You will be fine.” In the decade since, I have often thought about that brief encounter. With Congress suffering numerous defeats, those words remind me of how much our party has let down our workers and our country. As my colleagues gather at Ahmedabad for our party conclave on April 8-9, I urge them to commit to deep organisational reforms to make the party fit for purpose at this time of immense challenges facing the country.
Since the rise of the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Congress has had some notable wins such as those in Karnataka and Telangana. The party also improved its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Still, the broader picture is one of steady decline. While there are legitimate concerns about the fairness of the conduct of elections in India, it is also clear that our party has fallen short of people’s expectations with worrying regularity. The ramifications are troubling, with India’s politics increasingly influenced by oligarchic interests even as millions survive on free rations. The ruling party promotes deeply divisive, scorched-earth politics, and unabashedly showcases economic growth that is enriching the wealthiest Indians.
We all know the basic story of Lok Sabha elections in this century. After defeats in 2004 and 2009, the BJP has grown considerably and now boasts a vote share of about 36 per cent while Congress sits at about 21 per cent. Beyond this national picture, data from the last five Assembly elections in the 18 biggest states (those with 10 Lok Sabha seats or more) shows worrying trends for Congress, with BJP gaining a lot of ground in the last two election cycles.
In the last five Assembly elections in these states, the BJP contested 13,153 seats, won 36 per cent and lost its deposit in 31 per cent. The BJP’s average vote share was 23 per cent. Congress contested 12,969 seats, won 29 per cent, and lost its deposit in 28 per cent. The average vote share was 25 per cent. This looks positive. However, if we focus only on the last two elections in these 18 states, the BJP improved sharply. Of 5,504 contests, BJP won 43 per cent and lost its deposit in 21 per cent ,with an average vote share of 28 per cent. Congress contested 5,623 times, won 29 per cent and lost its deposit in 27 per cent, with an average vote share of 23 per cent.
The most recent round of elections brings worse news. Of 2,580 contests, the BJP won 51 per cent and lost its deposit in 11 per cent, with an average vote share of 30 per cent. Congress contested 2,543 seats, won 24 per cent and lost its deposit in 34 per cent, with a vote share of 23 per cent. The gap is growing. If the data presented weighted averages instead of simple averages, Congress’s weaknesses in large states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar would make the vote share look even worse.
Another key factor — in these 18 states, the BJP and Congress are not always fighting alone. They have alliances in many states, which often adds to their strength. In seven large states where the BJP and Congress are the main parties, the BJP has found even more success, winning 60 per cent of the contests in the last Assembly elections. The defeats are piling up.
We must accept that our party has been facing an existential challenge for over a decade. While there’s a floor to our support, we are not doing enough to raise the ceiling. There is no dearth of ideas or talent in Congress. The AICC’s Udaipur Declaration (2022) and Raipur Call to Action (2023) proposed substantive ideas, but there has been no systematic follow-up or coherent strategic plan.
The Bharat Jodo Yatra, which fired up the imagination of Congress workers and supporters, was conceived in Udaipur. Our improved Lok Sabha performance may, in large measure, be due to Rahul Gandhi sacrificing his knees to take our message to the masses. Yet, to independent observers, it is clear that a moribund organisation is incapable of leveraging impactful initiatives like the Yatra or even the unique AICC presidential election that I was part of. Instead, we tolerate repeated defeats, appoint leaders without clear mandates, and fail to reform our party.
The senior leadership of our party must come to grips with a simple fact of our lives — our vision, values, and policies require a new and reformed party organisation from top to bottom, from Delhi to the states. With increasingly complex geopolitics, an uncertain global trade environment, escalating climate change, a growing digital divide, and an economy struggling to create jobs, we must offer hope, our stand on key issues must be clear, and we must earn trust.
Congress still has the talent and the ideas. But without serious organisational renewal, we will keep underperforming. In Raipur, our final communique said: “India awaits a reinvigorated Congress, and we owe it to the people to fulfil their expectations.” India is still waiting.
The writer is a member of the All India Congress Committee (AICC)
