The elections this weekend in Bangladesh, the first in a series of polls in 2024 across the world, will be significant. Unlike Pakistan, where the army will continue to rule irrespective of the electoral outcome, the Bangladesh elections can consolidate democratic practices and institutions, bring about a progressive development agenda and fuller participation in regional and global affairs. The support of the international community will be crucial for such an outcome.
The ruling Grand Alliance, led by Sheikh Hasina of Awami League (AL), seeking a fourth successive term, has delivered on economic growth, infrastructure development, social support network, improvement in SDGs and the fight against terrorism in its 15 years of governance. However, popular support declined when the nation’s post-Covid recovery was impacted by the Ukraine war. It led to a macro-economic crisis, inflation and unemployment, and needed an IMF bailout.
To compound the challenges, the Opposition campaigned vigorously for a caretaker government, failing which it threatened to boycott the polls. More worrisome for the government was criticism from the USA and Europe that called for free and fair elections, suggesting that processes were not democratic. For AL, these developments sought to undermine the legitimacy of the electoral outcome.
Caretaker government
Rather than debating on substantive issues, the single-point agenda of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) was to question who should conduct the elections. It insisted that AL step down and hand over power to a caretaker government.
The experience of a neutral caretaker government, which began on an experimental basis in 1991, has been mixed. In 1996, the 13th Constitutional Amendment introduced the provision of a caretaker government as a compromise, to sustain democracy because of the deep mistrust between the political forces. In 2006, the caretaker government overstayed and even imprisoned political leaders from both sides. In 2011, the 15th Constitutional Amendment did away with caretaker governments and the Election Commission’s role in the electoral process was strengthened, as per Supreme Court rulings. When AL did not relent, the BNP decided to boycott the 2024 elections but continued to stage protests in the hope of stalling the process.
Electoral violence
Violence has been a feature of elections in Bangladesh with its history of assassinations that created deep mistrust between AL and BNP. It came in the way of dialogue and consensus and led to zero-sum options. In 2014, the Opposition boycotted the elections on the caretaker issue. In 2018, it contested the elections, but amidst allegations of electoral violations, the ruling alliance received an overwhelming mandate.
The Opposition BNP entered the fray in 2023 with a depleted organisation, a weakened leadership in detention or overseas and dissension within the ranks. Its strategy of agitation to stall the elections led to further arrests of opposition workers. Many BNP local leaders wanted to contest elections, despite a diktat to boycott, and several broke away to form new parties. This reaffirmed the importance of electoral politics and the marginalisation of those who would not join elections.
Islamist forces have been on the fringes of electoral processes. Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (Jamaat), Bangladesh Islami Chhatrashibir (Shibir) and other Islamic parties aligned with the BNP were barred from contesting elections following court rulings — and their leaders were sentenced for war crimes committed during the liberation war. AL had courted certain Islamic groups to expand its vote base. Breakaway Islamic groups, including from Jamaat, formed new parties that were recognised by the Election Commission. This new trend of the mainstreaming of Islamist forces will need monitoring.
External environment
Bangladesh was sensitive to the criticism from the US and Europe about its democratic process. Not only has the US questioned its ability to hold free and fair elections but it also imposed visa restrictions on those who obstructed free and fair elections. The government feared that such criticism might come in the way of its larger aspirations for economic growth and globalisation. So while it gave no quarter to the opposition parties within Bangladesh, it sought to reassure foreign critics about its intention and ability to conduct the polls with high participation and representation and invited foreign observers to witness the promise of free and fair elections.
In recent years, Bangladesh has grown rapidly as an emerging economy with great potential. It adopted a balanced foreign policy, built on close neighbourly relations with India, investments and imports from China, exports to the US and Europe, development assistance from Japan, energy ties with Russia, and recognised the importance of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Turkey. Bangladesh’s aspirations to be a middle-developed economy will need such a broad range of external partnerships.
Quest for democracy and identity
Bangladesh was born in a liberation war, pushing for democracy and resisting genocide against Bengalis by Pakistan. Politics in Bangladesh, since its inception, was split between those who fought for liberation from Pakistan and those who remained sympathetic to Pakistan and its military-led politics influenced by religious fundamentalists.
The struggle within Bangladesh has been for an open, secular and democratic society versus Islamic fundamentalism. On the economic front, both sides have sought growth, but the methods and beneficiaries have varied. The outcome of this struggle now will impact society and polity, with the possibility of political unrest and the export of extremism, if society falls prey to religious fundamentalism and sponsors of terrorism.
The practice and tradition of democracy have been evolving in Bangladesh. The Opposition was not helpful in the development of democratic traditions. The state often clamped down on political opposition, civil society and media. Yet, to balance that, it has shown a positive momentum in the growth of democracy, establishment of institutions, wider gender representation and confidence in electoral politics.
It is important to understand that Bangladesh chose democracy, unlike its estranged twin Pakistan. A confident and rising Bangladesh will be an important member of the global community, a partner for free and open societies and the spread of democracy.
The writer is a former ambassador and Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs
