Xi Jinping assumed the post of president for a third term with the overwhelming support of the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s parliament. The NPC met this week to implement the decisions of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), held in October 2022. The Party had endorsed Xi as General Secretary of the CCP and Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and also inscribed ‘Xi Jinping Thought‘ in the Constitution for its guiding role in China’s rejuvenation.
For decades after Mao Zedong’s death, China was guided by the strategy crafted by Deng Xiaoping and his comrades, participants in the glories and tribulations of the Mao era. Having witnessed the remarkable economic and technological growth of the capitalist west and the collapse of socialism in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, Deng felt that only the strong hand of the CCP could shape China’s destiny and avoid chaos. The economic policy of “reform and opening up” (gaige kaifang) established SEZs in coastal regions, encouraged FDI, supported export-led growth, freed up private enterprise and permitted the generation of wealth. On the political front, the Party was cautious but agreed on collective leadership and orderly transitions of power between generations (leadership positions lasted two terms or a decade and retirement by the age of 70). China experienced rapid economic growth and its integration into the global community increased its comprehensive national strength.
Deng advocated the 24-character strategy for China after the turbulence of the Tiananmen Square events. The six maxims of “observe calmly; secure positions; cope with affairs calmly; hide capabilities and bide time; maintain a low profile; and never claim leadership” called for internal capacity building but cautious external expression. It guided China during the tenures of Jiang Zemin-Li Peng and Hu Jintao-Wen Jiabao and its “peaceful rise” (heping jueqi). The Deng ideology receded thereafter, as political dynamics changed and some felt China had already become a great power.
Xi came to power, with Premier Li Keqiang, representing the fifth generation of the Party. He was raised in the chaotic Cultural Revolution (wenhua dageming) and served briefly with the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA). To strengthen and unify the Party, he supported the PLA, reformed economic activity and promoted common prosperity. His anti-corruption campaign targeted even prominent figures in the CCP and clipped the wings of high-profile entrepreneurs. His strict Zero Covid policy led to an economic slowdown, angst and deaths. Unlike the Deng era, these campaigns purged many in the system, affected economic activity and prompted public protests, but consolidated the power of the Party.
Externally, China’s quest to secure resources, markets and influence for its continued growth, faced headwinds. There was competition and friction with the US over trade, human rights, security and Taiwan; and security concerns with Europe while economic engagement continued. China’s activities in the South China Sea brought it into direct competition with the core priorities of ASEAN, Japan and Taiwan. The One Belt One Road or Belt and Road Initiative expanded China’s footprint but led many countries into debt traps through poor investments and negatively affected China’s image. As China’s profile grew, it adopted proactive and unilateral postures, often unlike Deng’s pragmatic and cautious approach and often violating even its own agreements with partners.
Three key issues emerged as significant in the recent NPC session — leadership changes; structural relations between Party and government; and foreign policy.
Xi (69) was elected unanimously, without a single dissenting vote, to a third term as President. The consolidation of Party, military and state power at his command has not been seen since the times of Mao. Xi’s ally and Shanghai boss, Li Qiang (63) took over as Premier of the State Council to revive the flagging economy, deal with the Covid pandemic and restore trust among entrepreneurs. Han Zheng (68), former Vice Premier, was elected as Vice President while Zhao Leji (66), former head of Anti-Corruption, became Chairman of NPC. The new appointments revealed that persons close to Xi were promoted and indicated their strong support for Xi.
The NPC introduced reforms to government institutions, as approved in the second meeting of the 20th CCP Plenum, held last month. There were steps to dilute the separation that existed in Party-government relations. The new State Council would improve coordination with Leading Groups of the CCP, adding to the oversight exercised by Party Secretaries. The north-south divide between the wings hosting CCP and State Council offices, in Zhongnanhai, may also diminish with the new appointments. New structures were established in security, science and technology and financial sectors to enhance the role of the Party in rule-making. It was unclear whether centralised policy-making would effectively respond to the needs of a complex economy with diverse stakeholder interests. Outgoing Premier Li Keqiang, who announced a modest growth target of 5 per cent during his Work Report at NPC, told his State Council colleagues at his farewell in Zhongnanhai to listen to citizen concerns and coordinate with economic entities; then he added mysteriously that the eyes of heaven were watching!
China sought to be a global power and participated actively on global issues. Its rise coincided with interdependence and competition with the west, its primary source of technology and its principal destination for trade and capital reserves. At the NPC, Xi was critical of the US’s attempts to “contain, suppress and encircle China” as the two moved towards economic decoupling, which would be painful. China has been under pressure with the emergence of the Indo-Pacific. On Ukraine, China had to balance its support for Russia with its global aspirations, but it also could not allow long-term stress on Russia.
At the same time, the sceptre of conflict over Taiwan and tensions in its neighbourhood grew, primarily due to its unilateral advances, aggressive diplomacy and unproductive investments. Interestingly, the military delegates at NPC initiated a discussion on Taiwan (in the context of the Anti-Secession Law), called for a legal framework for overseas military deployments and proposed wartime legislation. China’s heft in global affairs has grown over time. However, it no longer follows the cautious Deng approach but is more transactional and active, including the “willingness to fight”.
A new red star has ascended over the Chinese sky, bringing a constellation and orbit that its citizens and the global community may engage with for some time to come.
The writer was Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs and an Ambassador
