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Rajinikanth was in Thoothukudi earlier this week for the shooting of Thalaivar 170, and in an interaction with the media, the Superstar was asked about Vijay’s upcoming film, Leo. He said, “I pray to god that the film becomes a success.” The statement has united fans of the two stars, who in recent years have become close competitors. After the success of Jailer, which went on to collect more than Rs 650 crore at the box office, Rajinikanth is said to have reclaimed his position at the top of the Tamil film industry pyramid. Before the film’s release, however, it was Vijay who had established himself as the premier star of the industry, with a string of hits to his name. With Rajinikanth’s long-awaited return to form, the era of healthy box office competition is back. While Leo is fighting its own demons ahead of release, the next big question after it debuts will inevitably be, “Will Leo beat Jailer at the box office?” Indian Express spoke to Tamil, Telugu, and Malayalam trade experts to predict whether Vijay will end up on top in this ongoing box office battle.
Jailer’s record:
After 17 days of release, Sun Pictures reported that Jailer had made Rs 525 crore worldwide. That was the last official update. However, reports claimed that the film eventually crossed the Rs 600 crore mark. Jailer is currently considered to be the second-biggest box office success in the history of Tamil cinema, after Rajinikanth’s own 2.0 (which reportedly earned more than Rs 700 crore). By comparison, Vijay’s Varisu managed to make around Rs 300 crore at the box office, a personal record for the star. Leo has the potential to surpass Varisu’s collections, but it remains to be seen if the film is able to attract a pan-India audience, which will be crucial to its success.
Leo Day 1 collection prediction:
While it’s difficult to gauge Leo’s performance in the long run, with the number of screens and the incredible demand for tickets, an informed guess is possible. Trade analyst Ramesh Bala said, “I think there is a chance that the first day box office of Jailer will be beaten by Leo.” He added, “In India, I predict there is a chance of it doing Rs 70 crore on day one. Worldwide, it might do Rs 100 crore on the opening day, based on the current estimation.” Anything above Rs 70 crore on day one will mean that Vijay’s Leo is in the clear.
Bala said that predicting Leo’s long-term performance depends on its quality, and whether it’s actually a part of an ongoing shared universe of films directed by Lokesh Kanagaraj. “However, if the film is not part of Lokesh Kanagaraj’s universe, it will hit 20 per cent of the profit. There is an exclusive audience just for LCU, and if the film is ain’t part of it, there will be an impact there,” he said.
Telugu and Malayalam market:
Vijay has a huge market in the Kerala belt, big enough to challenge some of the biggest local stars. Trade analyst and columnist Sreedhar Pillai is sure that Leo will have the biggest opening in the history of Malayalam cinema. “Leo will do a business of Rs 10 crore easily. Currently, Jailer has a record of making Rs 7.5 crore. Thalapathy Vijay is going to reclaim his territory with Leo. That’s for sure,” he said.
On the other hand, the Telugu states have their own big releases lined up. “Vijay never had to compete with big (Telugu) stars before. All his releases were either for Diwali or Tamil New Year. Even Varisu was a delayed release on Sankranti. Master was the only Vijay film that had to compete with reasonably big Telugu stars. This is a new phenomenon that Vijay is competing with big Telugu stars like Balakrishna (Bhagavanth Kesari is releasing on October 19). Balakrishna’s film will be on top. If Leo had come out as a solo release, it might have made as much as Rajinikanth’s Jailer on day one, which is around Rs 12 crore (gross). With the current booking, Leo might come close to 70 per cent or even close to Jailer. There is also the component of walk-in audiences. But Leo is going to struggle in smaller centres,” Telugu trade analyst Deepak said.
All about Leo:
Directed by Lokesh Kanagaraj, Leo marks his second collaboration with Vijay. The film also stars Trisha, Sanjay Dutt, Arjun Sarja, and Gautham Menon in important roles. Produced by Seven Screen Studios, the film follows the story of Parthiban, an unassuming family man from a small town in Himachal Pradesh, who is hounded by a gang. Anirudh Ravichander has composed the music for the film, which is rumoured to be part of Lokesh Kanagaral’s cinematic universe.
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