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Friday, July 30, 2021

Soumya Kanti Ghosh

The writer is the chief economic advisor with the State Bank of India.

No need for hasty estimates of Covid deaths in India
Tue, Jul 27, 2021

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, V Anantha Nageswaran write: It is sensible to wait for better data, which should become available in 2023, if not sooner

Post-pandemic rural economic recovery will depend on government’s ability to drive spending
Mon, Jul 05, 2021

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Sachchidanand Shukla write: While the government went all out last year to shield the rural economy and households by way of free food, free gas, front-loading PM-Kisan payments, increasing MGNREGA allocation, moratoriums etc, it seems to have changed tack in the current fiscal.

As Covid cases decline, what should the government’s next steps be?
Tue, Jun 08, 2021

It must plan for vaccinating children, step up support to households, MSMEs, take steps to strengthen the health infrastructure.

Bad bank, good move
Tue, Mar 23, 2021

It will help in recovering value from stressed assets and allow banks to increase lending.

Budget 2021 shows govt is set for a fiscal push. Baton has once again passed to the RBI
Thu, Feb 04, 2021

Fortunately, the RBI and government have worked in perfect harmony during the pandemic.

The fiscal situation will not stabilise in 2020-21 unless consumption improves
Thu, Jan 14, 2021

The Union budget should focus on enhancing credit flows to the small and marginal farmers, increase investment in health and education.

With better than expected second-quarter numbers, economy could spring a positive surprise
Mon, Nov 30, 2020

The third and fourth quarter numbers are likely to spring a positive surprise, though conditional on the absence of another wave of infections.

Concept of public goods can be experimentally put to use in pandemic for a social cause
Mon, Oct 19, 2020

Wearing masks is a perfect example of a public good, as there is always a proviso that the person not wearing a mask could benefit and hence, again, both defecting and not wearing masks could be an eventuality. In this case, we, however, need a harsh punishment for those not wearing masks.

Coordinated inequilibrium strategy between RBI and govt is most effective policy response in pandemic
Wed, Sep 09, 2020

An essential prerequisite in the current circumstances is effective communication by both the RBI and the government, with both speaking in unison.

Time has come for complete overhaul of obsolete legislation regulating migrant labour in India
Sat, May 30, 2020

In light of the announcement by the government on launching a scheme under PMJAY for the migrant labour/urban poor to provide ease of living at an affordable rent, optimal utilisation of these funds should be considered over the medium term.

Let’s focus on broadening scope of data collection to make statistical system more comprehensive
Mon, Mar 09, 2020

Volatility of oil prices and structural changes in the economy make the forecasting of inflation and GDP a difficult job indeed. However, we should supplement our existing measurement practices with “big data” to make our statistical system robust.

The budget should increase spending in rural areas, cut taxes and bring back trust in financial system
Tue, Jan 21, 2020

The primary purpose of the budget is to lay out a receipt-expenditure statement and thereby the fiscal deficit estimates. This year is, perhaps, different as the slowdown has derailed the fiscal arithmetic.

Govts must ensure policy continuity, refrain from creating sector-specific uncertainty
Thu, Dec 26, 2019

Rather than opting for measures like farm loan waivers, which lead to problems of moral hazard that impact credit culture, measures should be undertaken to improve agricultural productivity. Alternatively, can we not enact a law to preserve policy continuity?

Three years on, Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code is learning from outcomes, growing stronger
Fri, Nov 29, 2019

The recent empirical work on links between corporate bond markets and the bankruptcy system predicts that safe firms will issue bonds but higher risk firms, for whom insolvency is more likely, issue bonds as long as bankruptcy is efficient.

In RCEP negotiations, Delhi has been consistent. It is right to put its own interests first
Tue, Nov 05, 2019

Indian negotiators have taken steps to ensure that domestic manufacturing is effectively protected from unfair competition.

India’s growth story is far from over. But govt must incentivise household savings, spur consumption
Mon, Sep 16, 2019

Given a large jump in household leverage, monetary policy is unlikely to retain the effectiveness through large rate cuts in the current scenario. Only a counter cyclical fiscal response might address the core of the current problem.

Demand slowdown: A coordinated policy response, addressing both structural and cyclical factors, is needed
Wed, Aug 14, 2019

The slowdown in demand is a fact, but the consensus that banks are not extending enough credit to help us navigate through the current slowdown is misplaced. This is a false narrative as Economics 101 suggests a bi-directional causality between economic growth and credit off-take.

Government should target a structural deficit as an alternative to the fiscal deficit
Mon, Jun 03, 2019

The figures on the expenditure side of GDP do not foretell a promising picture. The decline in private final consumption expenditure is a matter of concern, though an increase in government final consumption expenditure has been able to offset it.

Union Budget 2018, Expert Explains: Maintaining momentum, says Soumya Kanti Ghosh
Fri, Feb 02, 2018

Around 70 per cent of farm land is being cultivated by tenant farmers who have no access to bank loans. So the move to grant them access to bank credit will significantly reduce rural debt. The idea of ‘Operation Green’ is also a welcome step

Case for a fiscal push
Tue, Sep 26, 2017

Policy should focus on recapitalising banks, giving incentives to sectors like telecom and housing, and alleviating the disruption caused by demonetisation and GST

Budget for Everyone
Thu, Feb 02, 2017

For FY18, the Government Borrowing is budgeted at Rs 6.05 lakh crore and a net borrowing requirement is pegged at Rs 3.48 lakh crore taking into account repayments of Rs 2.56 lakh crore.

Empowering women through JAM
Thu, Jul 21, 2016

State Bank of India data suggests that states that have traditionally lagged behind in terms of economic growth are seeing more traction in women entrepreneurship through the Mudra route.

3 reasons to justify rate cut on June 18
Sat, Jun 16, 2012

And many more for any monetary policy action to be supplemented with reforms to reverse the negative perceptions.

Last straw on the fisc back
Thu, Feb 16, 2012

The huge expenditure on the food bill,with the attendant leakages,could well make fiscal recovery impossible

Can RBI move ahead of the curve?
Sat, Sep 10, 2011

There is now increasing apprehension that,for the 12th time in succession,RBI will resort to monetary tightening in September.