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Monday, March 08, 2021

Sajjid Z. Chinoy

The writer is chief India economist, J.P. Morgan.

Budget 2021 embarks on three paradigm shifts. Execution and fiscal-monetary coordination will be key
Mon, Feb 08, 2021

Budget's success, and in turn the sustainability of India’s recovery, will now come down squarely to policy execution and coordination.

Given demand uncertainties, budget is opportune moment for a large physical and social infrastructure push
Mon, Jan 11, 2021

India’s faster-than-expected rebound is very encouraging. But given labour market pressures and prospects of a K-shaped recovery around the world, the economy will need to be carefully nurtured and stoked.

A recovery led by profits, at the expense of wages, has implications for demand, inequality and policy
Sat, Dec 05, 2020

So even as economies heal from COVID-19, the distribution of incomes across capital and labour risks becoming very skewed in favour of capital. Why does this matter? Equity issues apart, this portends ominously for future demand.

Arvind Panagariya’s book points out that export remain key to economic growth
Thu, Nov 19, 2020

There are no silver bullets or quick fixes. Only a well-thought-out and sequenced reform plan. One that Reclaiming lays out meticulously and comprehensively.

Public sector assets must be monetised to fund physical, social infrastructure
Tue, May 19, 2020

The corona crisis has highlighted the criticality of social infrastructure. India must monetise existing assets in the public sector to fund growth-enhancing investments in physical and social infrastructure.

Corona, crude, credit: Time to mind our own house amidst gathering global storm
Thu, Mar 12, 2020

The global market mayhem reflects an unprecedented intersection of worldwide demand destruction, an adverse supply chain shock from China, and a positive oil shock.

Beyond economic band-aid
Sat, Aug 31, 2019

Stimulative impact of RBI transfer is lower than presumed. Sustained reforms remain key

Budget is well-intentioned on the big themes. But execution will be key
Sat, Jul 06, 2019

All told, the budget has performed an artful balancing act against a difficult macro backdrop. The big themes — financial, external, fiscal — are all well-intentioned. Now, the authorities must walk the talk with equal skill.

The budget’s dilemma
Wed, Jul 03, 2019

Fiscal tightening will accentuate growth slowdown, fiscal stimulus will hurt monetary transmission. There is a third way.

There is no space for an inadvertent confluence of fiscal, regulatory, monetary easing
Fri, Jan 11, 2019

Policymakers have done well in the last few years to ensure macroeconomic stability. They must not now give in to the clamour for fiscal, monetary and regulatory easing.

Plunging to reality
Fri, Feb 09, 2018

Global markets are finally reconciling themselves to the fact that the goldilocks story of 2017 was always too good to be true.

Pause before you leap
Sat, Sep 30, 2017

Economy could be in a temporary supply shock. Fiscal stimulus will only accentuate external imbalances

Boom, bust
Wed, Apr 19, 2017

Current buoyancy in global markets is misleading. Structural flaws have not been corrected, economic nationalism is surging and we could be heading towards an economic malaise

A strong foundation
Tue, Jul 19, 2016

India has institutionalised its monetary policy framework in two years; this has to be taken to its logical conclusion

Union Budget 2016
Well left, Finance Minister
Tue, Mar 01, 2016

A batsman’s mettle is judged more by the deliveries he lets go. FM does well to resist the lure of spending recklessly in the name of growth

Sell to spend
Tue, Jan 26, 2016

Asset sales are the way for government to protect credibility while avoiding procyclical fiscal stance

No more hand holding
Wed, Nov 11, 2015

If there is to be competitive federalism, borrowing costs for states with varying deficits can’t be the same.

Gross Deflator Problem
Tue, Sep 08, 2015

GDP deceleration is a statistical quirk. Inability of numbers to capture growth will have consequences.