The writer is chief India economist, J.P. Morgan.
Stimulative impact of RBI transfer is lower than presumed. Sustained reforms remain key
All told, the budget has performed an artful balancing act against a difficult macro backdrop. The big themes — financial, external, fiscal — are all well-intentioned. Now, the authorities must walk the talk with equal skill.
Fiscal tightening will accentuate growth slowdown, fiscal stimulus will hurt monetary transmission. There is a third way.
Policymakers have done well in the last few years to ensure macroeconomic stability. They must not now give in to the clamour for fiscal, monetary and regulatory easing.
Global markets are finally reconciling themselves to the fact that the goldilocks story of 2017 was always too good to be true.
Economy could be in a temporary supply shock. Fiscal stimulus will only accentuate external imbalances
Current buoyancy in global markets is misleading. Structural flaws have not been corrected, economic nationalism is surging and we could be heading towards an economic malaise
India has institutionalised its monetary policy framework in two years; this has to be taken to its logical conclusion
A batsman’s mettle is judged more by the deliveries he lets go. FM does well to resist the lure of spending recklessly in the name of growth
Asset sales are the way for government to protect credibility while avoiding procyclical fiscal stance
If there is to be competitive federalism, borrowing costs for states with varying deficits can’t be the same.
GDP deceleration is a statistical quirk. Inability of numbers to capture growth will have consequences.