The writer is co-head of Asia Pacific Strategy and India Strategist for Credit Suisse.
The surge in cases and deaths might be a result of patient migration from surrounding districts. A revamp of rural healthcare system is urgent.
Tapping foreign savings is one step in the right direction, but more needs to be done to make the economy conducive to post-pandemic recovery.
Despite being acutely aware of the plight of the urban poor, given the lack of efficient channels to provide direct help, the government is relying on boosting economic growth, which can then create opportunities for them.
On February1, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present what could turn out to be India's most consequential Budget in years. What is the status of the post-Covid recovery process, and what are the concerns going forward? What should you look for in the Budget – and what should the Budget be looking at?
One must appreciate the restraint in “spending other people’s money”, a tendency most regimes find hard to resist. But it is equally important that nominal GDP growth picks up strongly.
The economic scars of the last six months are likely to take time to heal, the financial system still needs a major overhaul, and the only permanent solution to the large BoP surplus is stronger domestic demand, which will take time, and is best achieved through a well-designed fiscal stimulus.
The contraction seen in first-quarter GDP data is severe, but not unexpected. What should be done — or not done – at the level of govt policy so that the economy gets a chance to rebound as quickly as possible?
As private investment and consumption settle at far lower levels than earlier anticipated, the government’s role in the economy over the next two years or so would need to be much larger than it has been in the last three decades.
We believe a continued focus on reforms and on sustaining India’s growth potential will be critical in preventing macroeconomic instability.
Some observers are also concerned about what high deficits would do to India’s credit ratings. It remains to be seen how agencies respond to globally large fiscal deficits monetised by central banks; India may not be an outlier here.
With central reforms increasingly announced outside budget speeches, and both revenue and expenditures starting to become predictable, it might be more productive for public attention to move to other areas of government functioning like state and municipal budgets.
The government needs to take a decisive approach on the financial architecture in India: It needs to take an axe to the system, as a scalpel will no longer suffice.
Budget takes a calculated risk to fund part of borrowings through foreign currency bonds
New government should utilise its enormous political capital to introduce economic reforms
The constraints in the financial system have further worsened the monetary tightness. As growth continues to slow and inflation stays below the target, interest rates may keep falling, but likely not fast enough to revive growth quickly.
The income transfer scheme was the highlight of the budget. But its success will need deft manoeuvring.
India needs to bring structural changes, reset targets, influence global policy and choices.
With volatility in global currency markets up again, debate on rupee’s correct value has restarted
We need to build institutional memory, improve decision-making. Let’s start with data
Recent surveys suggest a sharp drop in agricultural employment. What must the government do?
Cards provide better security and don’t face the problem of providing change.
There had been a clamour for radical reforms. Demonetisation shows what real reforms feel like.
GST is a reform long delayed. But there may be good reason not to hurry it through now.
Farm incomes may not revive despite good monsoon. There are new challenges for policymakers.
They ignore the extremely high risk of an attempt at privatisation being effectively stillborn, unacceptable to state governments.