The writer is former chief economic advisor to the government of India.
🔴 Abhishek Anand, Arvind Subramanian write: On the key child stunting metric, it suggests not a catch-up, but a great switch between some of the BIMARU states and the mid-peninsular/western states
Devesh Kapur, Arvind Subramanian write: Global political leaders convening next week must open up selection of heads of these institutions to the best candidates, regardless of nationality.
Arvind Subramanian, Josh Felman write: States should give up their demand for an extension of GST compensation mechanism, while the Centre should offer resources during an economic downturn.
Abhishek Anand, Justin Sandefur, Arvind Subramanian write: Confronting the scale of the tragedy will help India draw lessons and etch them deep into the nation’s collective consciousness to foster a ‘never again’ resolve
Decision-making on vaccines should be imbued by a spirit of cooperative federalism rather than partisanship and guided by scientists rather than thrust upon judges through political abdication.
Government should plan to gradually improve its primary balance. This would protect against the risk of the growth-interest differential turning unfavourable.
India continues to be successful in preventing child deaths, but the health and nutrition of the surviving, living child has deteriorated, somewhat worryingly.
Traditional redistribution, which aims to deliver on intangibles like health and education, has ceded to a distinctive ‘New Welfarism’, where Centre is demonstrably providing tangible essentials to citizens
Indian capitalism has long been stigmatised because of the murky two-way relationship between the state and industrial capital. If the line between industrial and financial capital is erased, this stigma will only become worse.
India does not have the luxury of abandoning export orientation, the alternatives are limited. Resisting the misleading allure of the domestic market, India should zealously boost export performance and deploy all means to achieve that.
Arvind Subramanian, Shoumitro Chatterjee write: Our growth model has been export-led and should not be abandoned. Export opportunities in general and in specific sectors could be significant even in a post-COVID world.
India has faced more challenges than anyone imagined to its health, institutions, federal relations, and national security; and, as a result, we have missed Jaitley’s presence even more than we feared.
Exceptional situation calls for creative solutions — new set of procedures that utilise much of existing IBC framework, reformed IBC, bad banks for stressed assets in power and real estate sectors.
Aravind Subramanian writes: Now, following the Covid-19 shock, red ink will be blotting balance sheets across the economy.
A common thread to many of these actions — indeed prerequisites for their success — is cooperation between the Centre and states.
It is bad enough that our higher education system has routinely been failing our youth. It is bad enough too that their prospects of getting decent, well-paying jobs are becoming more grim. To heap violence and physical and psychological insecurity only adds more hopelessness to their educational years
Indicators of exports, imports, and real government revenues are in negative territory, or close to it. Clearly, this is not an ordinary slowdown. It is India’s Great Slowdown.
Running an economy, especially one that is in a predicament such as India’s today, is infinitely more complicated and the data demands are hence commensurately greater. A Data Big Bang effort along the lines proposed here would make that difficult task less challenging.
Methodological changes have led to overestimating GDP growth by 2.5 percentage points per year between 2011-12 and 2016-17. Actual growth is around 4.5 per cent.
The Office of the Chief Economic Adviser is a unique public institution — not just another cog, albeit technocratic, in the vast machinery of the government of the day.
Aggregate revenues have done well, despite headwinds, especially for less developed, consuming states
The Survey strives to combine rigor with readability, a challenge that increases in the same proportion as attention spans shrink (from absorbing op-eds to scrolling down tweets).
It must be brought within the ambit of the new tax regime. This will reduce costs, eliminate cross-subsidisation and restore the neutrality of incentives which is essential to good tax policy.
Excerpts from Arvind Subramanian's lecture delivered at the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences on June 5.
In the determination of the rate structure, the guiding principle should be: What will make for a GST that will facilitate compliance, minimise inflationary pressures, be a buoyant source of revenue, command support from the public?