Trade gap may widen to $150 bn in FY’12

In April-May,the trade gap was USD 23.9 billion.

India may be heading towards a large trade deficit of USD 125-150 billion in the current fiscal,mainly due to the consumption-led demand,as per the initial estimates.

The trend of the first two months of the financial year 2011-12 shows that the negative balance of trade is averaging USD 12 billion a month.

“If you average it to USD 12 billion,you are straight away looking at USD 125-150 billion,” according to Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar.

In April-May,the trade gap was USD 23.9 billion.

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In 2009-10,the monthly trade deficit ranged between USD 7.5 billion and USD 11 billion with the annual aggregate of USD 108.2 billion.

While in April this fiscal the deficit was USD 8.9 billion,the big surge came last month with USD 15 billion,which was the highest in the last few years.

Khullar said that thanks to easing of crude oil prices in the last few months,the bill for oil imports has grown about 12.9 per cent to USD 20.3 billion during April-May.

“It (increasing import) is a consumption demand and not investment (led),” he said.

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In May,imports were up 54.1 per cent to USD 40.9. Cumulatively,they were up 33.3 per cent to USD 73.7 billion.

Exports surged 56.9 per cent to USD 25.9 billion. In April-May,they grew 45.3 per cent to USD 49.8 billion.

During the two-months,petroleum imports increased 12.9 per cent to USD 20.3 billion,pearls and precious stones by 24.6 per cent to 5.2 billion and machinery by 46.7 per cent to USD 5.9 billion.

Imports of electronic goods increased by 61 per cent,chemicals (9.6 per cent),coal (19 per cent),transport equipment (32.7 per cent),ores and scraps (22 per cent) and vegetable oil (35 per cent).