Opinion It happened in 1971

What if Bangladesh had not been born? Would that have stanched conspiracy theories in Pakistan?

May 25, 2011 01:50 AM IST First published on: May 25, 2011 at 01:50 AM IST

The liberation of Bangladesh has been presented as a significant moment in the history of free India,in fact in the history of the entire subcontinent. Indian triumphalists felt good because 1971 represented an antidote to the whipping received by the Indian army from the Chinese in 1962. Politicians of the Secular Persuasion were thrilled that the two-nation theory had been proved wrong. Politicians of the Hindutvic Persuasion were happy simply because India finally had a victory over Pakistan. Politicians of the Leftist Persuasion were ecstatic because the great socialist Soviet Union emerged as a supporter of India in checkmating Pakistan,the ally of dirty American imperialists. Indira Gandhi emerged as the only leader who in a long time had given Indians the taste of a military victory. Even some political opponents hailed her as a goddess. To this day,the Nehru-Gandhi family derives sustenance from what they see as Indiras personal achievement. Speaking at the orthodox Deoband Islamic seminary,her grandson Rahul appropriated the credit for breaking up Pakistan to his familys determination.

Forty years later,there is a case for historical revisionism: a hard look at counterfactual possibilities. What if India had not helped East Pakistani secessionism? What if Pakistan had remained one country? One can make the case that India would have been better off in multiple ways. As long as West Pakistani Muslims were continuing to persecute East Pakistani Muslims,secessionist leaders in our lovely Kashmir vale would have been on the back foot. How can you make a case to join a country that persecutes fellow-believers?

On a tactical level,whenever the Pakistani establishment (whatever that means) sent in infiltrators and gun-toting,bomb-throwing loonies from the Lashkar-e-Toiba,HuJI or the Jaish-e-Mohammad,we could have reciprocated by activating Mukti Bahini cells to do a tit for tat in the lovely delta lands of eastern Bengal! Unwieldy Pakistan would not have had much time and energy to devote to the Afghan frontier or to inciting saffron-growing Sufi farmers in Srinagar and Kupwara! In a realpolitik sense,we might have been better off if its eastern wing had remained a permanent bleeding ulcer. One of my whiskey-drinking Westernised Pakistani friends (who therefore represents no one but other whiskey-drinking westernised Pakistanis),actually said to me many years ago that we had done them a favour by ridding them of troublesome Bengalis.

One can argue that West Pakistani persecution would have resulted in millions of refugees from the eastern half coming into India. The fact of the matter is that there are millions coming in from Bangladesh into India today anyway. They are called economic refugees. These economic refugee Bangladeshis are well-ensconced in Assam and in the slums and shanties of Delhi and Mumbai. In any event,given the differentials in wage rates,remorseless economic logic is bound to prevail; it is and it always will be impossible to keep out such entrants. If the US cannot prevent Mexicans from coming into the land protected by their awesome Homeland Security Department,the thought that the soft,inefficient Indian state can keep out refugees of any kind is laughable.

I believe that there would have been a far greater positive in terms of the psychological responses of the elites and the masses in Pakistan. The fact that India successfully dismembered Pakistan means that their elites are simply unable and unwilling to believe that India does not have any designs to do more of it. India must be up to some mischief in Baluchistan. Stands to reason. Didnt India foment problems in East Pakistan? So goes their refrain. In fact,conspiracy theorists in Pakistan are even prepared to believe that India funds the Pakistani Taliban. These fantastic theories proceed from their foundation in the adaptive expectations of Pakistanis. Quite simply speaking,what has happened before,may happen again thats the underlying fear. For the Pakistani masses,the Bangladesh conflict has remained a puzzle. Till the end,the Pakistani media kept reporting non-existent Indian defeats and Pakistani victories. Then one fine day,the people of Pakistan were informed that the Indian army had taken Dhaka. This level of media manipulation inevitably leads to beliefs in the stab-in-the-back theories. The soldiers of Islam could not have lost,it must have been a plot became new self-evident truths. This has created a situation where several million people (hopefully not the majority) in Pakistan seriously believe that the attack on the World Trade Center in New York was a Jewish/ Hindu conspiracy! For the Pakistani military,especially its younger officers,1971 represents a humiliation caused by corrupt leadership and this humiliation needs to be wiped out. A revenge match is called for. These sentiments are not different from those expressed by many German ex-servicemen in the twenties. All these ailments of the soul which afflict the elite,the masses and the military of Pakistan would have been avoided if East Bengal had remained a part of that country,implying without doubt that our relationship with them would not have deteriorated as much as it has.

What about China? If there had been no Bangladesh would China have acquired a naval base in Chittagong like the one they have in Gwadar? Would the Chinese encircle India strategy been more purposeful? While there is some basis for this fear,it can equally be argued that it was Indias decisive blow to Pakistan in 1971 that made China such a strong ally of that country in order to prevent Indian dominance in the subcontinent.

The impartial historian would argue that the Bangladesh war actually did a disservice to Indira Gandhi. She may not have become arrogant and imposed the Emergency of 1975. To this day,she is remembered as a controversial leader who was not a democrat at heart. She might have avoided this hubris.

Forty years on,as Bangladesh becomes the big turnaround success story in our region,the what-if narrative would,of course,look quite different when seen from the point of view of the erstwhile East Pakistan. It is nonetheless appropriate to indulge in speculation lest we look for easy short-term triumphs again which may come back to bite us later!

jerry.rao@expressindia.com