With 80 Lok Sabha seats, Uttar Pradesh plays a crucial role in determining who forms the government at the Centre. In the 2014 general election, the BJP-led alliance won 73 out of the 80 seats in the state. While most exit polls project that the NDA will comfortably cross the magic mark of 272 seats to form the government, the projections widely vary with regard to the BJP’s performance in three key states — Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Odisha — which account for 143 seats.
The projections for the performance of the alliance of SP, BSP and the RLD by different agencies vary considerably.
Exit Poll Results 2019: Check state-wise Lok Sabha election exit poll results
According to the Republic TV-Cvoter survey, the Mahagathbandhan will win 40 seats in UP, the BJP will bag 38 seats and the Congress will win two. But most of the other pollsters appear to have given BJP a strong edge in the state.
The Times Now-VMR poll predicts a tally of 58 for the BJP and its allies and 20 for the Mahagathbandhan. The exit poll by Today’s Chanakya for News 24 gives Mahagathbandhan 13 seats and predicts that the BJP will sweep UP, winning as many as 65 seats. Projections by Aaj Tak-Axis My India data predict that the NDA will win 62-68 seats in UP. None of the pollsters predict more than two seats for the Congress in the state.
In this election, West Bengal is witnessing a fierce fight between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP. Exit poll projections predict that the BJP is set to make significant gains in the state that has 42 seats. Aaj Tak’s poll has given both Trinamool and the BJP equal number of seats — 19-22 to Trinamool and 19-23 to BJP.
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However, other pollsters don’t predict such a close contest. Today’s Chankaya has given 18 seats to BJP and 23 to Trinamool, still a major gain for the former. But Times Now-VMR projects a tally of 11 for the BJP and 29 for the TMC — Cvoter has the same projections. In 2014, the TMC won 34 seats and the BJP won 2 seats in West Bengal.
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In Odisha too, exit poll projections by different agencies vary widely. Most pollsters predict that the BJP, which won 1 seat in the state in 2014, will surpass the BJD’s tally this time. The BJD won 20 out of the 21 seats in the state in 2014. The Aaj Tak survey gives the BJD zero seats and BJP 15-19 seats in the coastal state.
Times Now-VMR and Republic TV-Cvoter are giving the BJP 12 and 10 seats, respectively, and News 24-Today’s Chanakya projects a tally of 14 for the BJP. The three pollsters give BJD 8, 11 and 7 seats, respectively.
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In Bihar, the BJP-led NDA alliance is up against a coalition of opposition parties. Most pollsters think the coalition of BJP, Janata Dal (United) and the Lok Janshakti Party will win 30 or more seats out of the 40 seats in the state.