Updated: April 29, 2021 10:24:14 pm
With nearly a month-long election schedule across four states and one Union Territory coming to an end Thursday, pollsters have predicted incumbent parties holding on to their fort in three states while expecting a close fight in the hotly contested West Bengal Assembly.
The result for the Assembly elections in West Bengal, Assam, Kerala and Tamil Nadu and Union Territory Puducherry will be announced by the Election Commission on May 2.
Following the Election Commission’s guidelines, the exit polls were telecast only after polling for the eighth and final round concluded in West Bengal on Thursday.
In West Bengal, the Times Now-C Voter predicted a clear majority for the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress by projecting 162 seats for the party and 115 for the BJP. ABP-C Voter predicted 152-164 seats for the TMC and 109-121 for the BJP, whereas CNN News18 projected the TMC winning 162 seats as against the BJP’s 115. Jan Ki Baat exit polls predicted a majority for the BJP, giving it 162-185 seats, against 104-121 to the TMC.
However, the Republic-CNX polls pegged the BJP winning 138-148 seats and 128-138 to the TMC.
The halfway mark in the 294-seat Bengal Assembly is 148.
Even if the saffron party fails to win a majority in the Bengal Assembly, going by the exit polls, it seems set for a major improvement in performance, rising from a single-digit presence in the Assembly in 2016 to a triple-digit seat share this time around.
In 2016, the TMC had won 211 seats while the BJP could only manage three seats.
None of the polls have predicted a significant tally for the Left-Congress alliance.
In Assam, nearly all pollsters projected a clear majority for the ruling BJP. India Today-Axis My India predicted 75-85 seats for the BJP in the 126-member assembly and 40-50 to the Congress-led Opposition. Today’s Chanakya predicted 70 seats for the BJP and 56 for Congress and allies, ABP-C Voter predicted 58-71 seats for BJP and 53-66 seats for Congress and allies, and Republic TV-CNX predicted 74-84 seats for the BJP and 40-50 seats for the Congress.
In Kerala, pollsters predict a return to power for the Pinarayi Vijayan’s LDF government, which would be a break from the trend of a revolving-door Assembly in the state. Axis My India predicted a big win for the CPM-led LDF by projecting 104 seats for it in the 140-member Assembly and predicting only 20-36 seats to the Congress-led UDF. Today’s Chanakya forecast 93-111 seats for the LDF and 26-44 for the UDF, while CNX predicted a closer fight by giving 72-80 seats for the LDF against 54-64 for the UDF.
In Tamil Nadu, Axis My India and CNX forecast a big win for the DMK-Congress alliance. They gave 175-195 and 160-170 respectively for the DMK-Congress-led alliance in the 234-member assembly. The ruling AIADMK-led alliance, which includes the BJP, was projected to get 38-54 and 58-68 respectively. Today’s Chanakya predicted 164-186 seats for the DMK combine and 46-68 for the AIADMK alliance while Republic TV-CNX survey predicted 160-179 seats for DMK and 58-69 seats for the AIADMK combine.
Exit polls also predicted the Congress-led alliance SDA losing Puducherry to the BJP combine.
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