Israel Hamas peace plan: What’s next for Gaza? 4 endgame scenarios as the war grinds on

This would mean sending troops into the last pockets of Gaza where 2 million displaced Palestinians are sheltering, including areas like Muwasi.

The consequences could be catastrophic: more deaths, mass displacement, and danger to the remaining hostages, around 20 are believed to be alive.

Israeli soldiers are seen near the Gaza Strip border in southern Israel, Wednesday, Aug. 6, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

The move is backed by Netanyahu’s far-right coalition, which advocates for the reconquest of Gaza, expulsion of its population, and the return of Jewish settlements. But it faces domestic resistance and would further isolate Israel diplomatically.

2. A ceasefire based on international demands

Hamas has agreed to release hostages in exchange for a full Israeli withdrawal, a lasting ceasefire, and the release of Palestinian prisoners.

The Biden administration and UN Security Council endorsed this framework over a year ago, and a version of it was briefly realised in the Trump-brokered January ceasefire.

That truce lasted six weeks, freed dozens of hostages, and brought in significant aid but collapsed in March when Israel resumed attacks. Israel insists a full withdrawal could allow Hamas to regroup and repeat another October 7-style assault. Netanyahu also faces political threats at home if he accepts such terms.

3. A ceasefire on Israel’s terms

Netanyahu says the war will end only when all hostages are freed and Hamas is dismantled or exiled. Even then, Israel would push for the “voluntary emigration” of Gazans, a plan the international community largely sees as forced expulsion.

Israel may agree to a short-term truce involving limited hostage releases, aid, and troop pullbacks. But any permanent settlement, Israel insists, must include Hamas’s full disarmament.

Trucks carrying humanitarian aid, line up as they wait to enter Rafah crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, Wednesday, Aug. 6, 2025. (AP Photo/Khaled Elfiqi)

Hamas has offered to hand over power to other Palestinians but refuses to lay down arms as long as Israel occupies territories key to a future Palestinian state.

4. A prolonged war

In the absence of agreement, the war may grind on indefinitely. Daily Israeli strikes continue, with heavy civilian casualties. Hamas maintains a low-grade insurgency, and humanitarian efforts remain constrained.

The hostages may remain in captivity for months or longer. With Israeli elections due by 2026, or possibly earlier, the political calculus could shift. US President Donald Trump, who brokered the June Iran-Israel ceasefire, has significant influence but has publicly backed Israel’s terms.

Asked this week if he would support Israel’s reoccupation of Gaza, Trump said: “It’s going to be pretty much up to Israel.”

(With Inputs from Associated Press)