US student enrolment projected to fall 9.5%: What it means for Indians

US international student enrollment is projected to fall 9.5% in Fall 2026 amid tighter visa rules and shifting US immigration policies. (Photo: NAFSA website)

International students’ economic contribution to shrink

NAFSA and JB International estimated that international students contributed about $41.8 billion to the US economy in the 2025-26 academic year.

India among countries facing impact

India, the largest source of foreign students in the United States, is among the list of countries that will be affected by the shifting landscape. Close to 3.63 lakh Indian students enrolled in different courses in American colleges and universities in the academic year 2024-25, PTI reported.

Key factors driving the decline

• Reduced demand
• Visa ban
• FIFA World Cup 2026
• Limited appointment availability
• Policy and regulatory uncertainty

Visa priority shift adds to student enrollment concerns

Apart from stricter travel policies, the US State Department’s priority shift to issuing visas for the FIFA World Cup 2026 ticket holders over students also affected international enrollments at universities. Traditionally, the State Department has prioritised scholar and student visa applications during peak season, which helped ensure timely campus arrival of students.

According to Fanta Aw, CEO of NAFSA, the Association of International Educators, “The projections underscore what we’ve long warned: US policy and regulations affect where international students plan to invest their future, and their decisions carry significant short- and long-term consequences for US society and economy.”

“All Americans lose when international students and scholars are driven to more welcoming countries. Forfeiting the US position as the top destination for global talent hurts students, hospitals, research laboratories, the economies – and carries the real risk that the next big invention will not happen on US soil,” the NAFSA CEO added.