Is an Iran-US ceasefire in place, or is another round of bombing around the corner? The Trump administration’s statements on Iran over the last 24 hours have pointed in both directions.
In the past 24 hours, the Trump administration has claimed that a ceasefire was in place and military operations had ended and later said fresh threats of bombing Tehran if it refused US demands.
On Tuesday morning, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US military was escorting stranded commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz and described the mission as “defensive”. He maintained that the ceasefire remained intact even after Iran launched missiles and drones at US forces and after US forces sank Iranian attack boats in response.
Hours later, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the military campaign had achieved its objectives and “concluded”. But in almost the same breath, he went on to say that President Donald Trump still wanted a “path of peace” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route that handles 20% of global oil flows.
Trump shifts course on Hormuz operation
By Tuesday evening, Trump had announced a pause in the US effort to escort ships through the strait while negotiations continued. On Wednesday morning, he flipped and warned Iran of fresh bombing if it rejected US terms.
The Whiplash — Event by Event
Sunday
Trump announces "Project Freedom" — U.S. forces will escort hundreds of stranded commercial vessels safely through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed by firing at ships off its coast.
Tuesday — Morning
Iran fires on U.S. ships. Six Iranian attack boats sunk. Two American-flagged freighters attempt to lead the transit. Iran launches missiles and drones at U.S. forces. Defence Secretary Hegseth, asked about active fire from both sides, says: "No, the ceasefire is not over."
Tuesday — Afternoon
"Operation Epic Fury is concluded. We achieved the objectives of that operation," Secretary of State Rubio tells reporters at the White House — while in the same breath saying Trump still seeks a "path of peace" requiring Iran to agree to a deal.
Tuesday — Evening
Trump announces on social media that the strait escort operation is paused to see if a negotiated agreement can be reached. Saudi Arabia had privately conveyed it did not view the escort plan as a feasible path to reopening the waterway.
Wednesday — Morning
Trump threatens renewed bombing "at a much higher level." "If they don't agree, the bombing starts," he writes on Truth Social. Hours later, the U.S. military shoots and disables an Iranian oil tanker attempting to breach the blockade.
Expert Analysis
"This is not an administration that operates based on a policy process. It operates based on impulse. The president seems now both tired of this war and reluctant to continue investing his political capital into it."
— Ali Vaez, Iran Director, International Crisis Group
Now — Ongoing
Strait remains blocked. No deal reached. Negotiations continue as 20% of the world's oil supply sits bottlenecked. Fuel prices are rising, and Republicans face growing pressure ahead of midterm elections.
What's next
→
Trump travels to Beijing next week — visiting China while the strait remains closed is seen as diplomatically damaging, putting China in a position of strength.
→
A UK-France maritime coalition is forming — but will only deploy once the threat to shipping ends, not before.
→
France's aircraft carrier strike group is moving south of the Suez Canal into the Red Sea in preparation for a potential joint mission.
Source: Associated Press
The administration’s statements over the past week have oscillated between military escalation and diplomatic outreach. Officials tried to keep the ceasefire in place while also pushing to reopen the strait, where disruptions have driven fuel prices higher and increased political pressure on Republicans ahead of the midterm congressional elections.
Trump first announced on Sunday that US forces would guide stranded vessels through the strait after Iran targeted ships near its coast. On Tuesday, Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine said US forces escorted two American-flagged freighters through the waterway and later sank six Iranian attack boats after Tehran opened fire.
Hegseth said the ceasefire still held despite the exchange. Caine also downplayed the attacks, saying they did not amount to a return to large-scale combat operations.
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Allies question US strategy
Administration officials have also struggled to explain shifting policy positions. Elizabeth Dent, a former State Department and Pentagon official, told news agency AP that the Trump administration has struggled with its messaging because the war wasn’t well planned. “Now I think Trump is sort of doing everything he can to prevent a return of hostilities because he saw how unpopular the war was. Throughout the conflict, the president has shifted his priorities and his perspectives on victory. He’s offered a murky definition of a ceasefire. Aides like Rubio and Hegseth must then explain Trump’s statements,” Dent said.
Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group, said the White House now sees few acceptable alternatives to a negotiated settlement and appears reluctant to invest more political capital in the war.
Seeking help from other countries
The administration has been involved in efforts to persuade allies to deploy warships to help reopen Strait of Hormuz, but this has also been the source of confusion.
Trump has been lashing out at countries unwilling to do more, telling them to “get your own oil” and saying it was not America’s job to secure the strait. But administration officials have begun actively soliciting help while toning down their language.
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Rubio said the issue is not a lack of interest, but that many are unable to provide the necessary resources.
“A lot of countries would love to do something about it. But they don’t have a navy, right? Or they can’t get there in time,” he said.
After Trump’s abrupt suspension of the initiative, two US officials told AP that the administration was still deciding whether, and how, to proceed with planning, following the State Department’s formal request for support from countries last week.
The officials, who spoke to AP on condition of anonymity, said Trump’s announcement had not been expected and that they had not been offered detailed guidance on whether to withdraw the requests for support.
(With inputs from AP)
