3 min readJun 26, 2026 09:20 PM IST
First published on: Jun 26, 2026 at 09:09 PM IST
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, sources cited by the Guardian have said that Moscow may now be preparing a possible “provocation” involving the Baltic states or Poland to test the cohesion of the NATO alliance. According to the report, the potential move comes amid Ukraine’s long-range strikes on targets closer to Moscow and St Petersburg, adding pressure.
A Guardian report, quoting Latvian intelligence, said that there are indications of the Russian military preparing provocations against Baltic states or Poland.
“We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland,” Latvian intelligence said.
NATO sources claims
Supporting the information, The Guardian reported that a senior political source from a second NATO member had earlier said, “We are picking up intelligence,” suggesting that Vladimir Putin was “planning something against the Baltic state.” The source also said that any potential Russian move against the Baltic states or Poland will be a “desperate effort to throw the dice” as Moscow continues to face challenges in its invasion of Ukraine and seeks to test US support for NATO’s smaller member states.
Previously, Donald Trump said he felt “let down” after several European countries declined to allow US Air Force operations against Iran to be launched from their airfields. The NATO annual summit is set to be held in Ankara, Turkey, in July. Trump’s remarks come ahead of the annual summit.
NATO is set to hold its annual summit in Ankara, Turkey, in July amid uncertainty about the US commitment to the alliance.
The Baltic states comprise Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all of which are NATO members located along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea.
Poland’s Prime Minister’s record of concern
Meanwhile, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that the regional security situation remains highly uncertain. Speaking at a press conference, Tusk said, “We also share, without exception, the opinion that the situation is very unstable and various types of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months.”
Tusk said that countries on NATO’s eastern flank “need to be prepared as a group of countries directly exposed to this risk.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin (AP Photo) 
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