One year of Russia Ukraine war: Resilience of forces, aid from allies keeps Kyiv afloat; food, gas prices on path to recovery

Tensions between the countries had sweltered since 2014 when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula and separatists tried to break away from Kyiv’s control by establishing self-declared eastern states in the Donbas region. About 14,000 people have died in the conflict in the region since then, according to Al Jazeera.

What Russia said was a “special military operation” aimed at the “demilitarization” and “denazification” of the country to protect ethnic Russians, Ukraine said was “an illegal act of aggression against a country with a democratically elected government”.

The beginning of the invasion saw a scramble among various countries to get their citizens back home safely. Long queues were seen amid heavy snow and rain as civilians, foreigners, and tourists waited to cross into bordering countries. India launched ‘Operation Ganga’ to bring back Indians stranded in Ukraine, amid many videos of pleas by medical students stranded in various cities where heavy firing and bombing were being reported.

What surprised the world was the stiff resistance put up by Ukrainian forces as Russia’s troops attempted to capture the capital and other cities in the northeast. By mid-March, Russia captured the Kherson region and a large chunk of the Zaporizhzhia region, which houses Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.

The siege of Mariupol

In the month of March, as Moscow withdrew forces from Kyiv, revealing horrifying images of mass graves in Bucha, an attack on a theater in the port city of Mariupol killed hundreds. The attack marked the beginning of the siege of Mariupol, whose strategic location on the Sea of Azov made it a prime target, where soldiers and civilians holed up inside a steel mill in the city to resist the occupation.  Mariupol is also of importance as it is situated between Crimea and Donbas, providing a route for the Russian forces to move by land into Ukrainian territory.

By the end of May, the last 250 fighters holed up in the Azovstal mill surrendered to Russian forces, ending what could be the war’s most devastating siege, one the United Nations and Red Cross said is certain to be Europe’s worst since the 1990s wars in Chechnya and the Balkans. Tens of thousands were killed.

As of February 2023, Reuters reported that Russia announced a major long-term reconstruction plan for Mariupol, introduced the rouble currency, and schools have switched to the Russian curriculum.

The Crimean fault

As China, Turkey, and other countries worked towards brokering a ceasefire deal between Ukraine and Russia, hopes of peace were dashed when a truck laden with explosives exploded on a road and rail bridge connecting Crimea with the Russian mainland. President Vladimir Putin branded the blast a “terrorist attack” by Ukrainian security services and ordered a wave of retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian cities including the capital Kyiv, hitting Ukraine’s key infrastructure.

At the time of the filing of this report on Friday, AFP reported the full reopening of the Kerch bridge to car traffic.

Advance into Donbas

As the war stretched longer than experts could have estimated, Putin in September last year held “referendums” in Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions and later signed documents to annex the four regions. By the end of November, Moscow retreated from the only regional centre it captured – Kherson. This was touted as a big loss as Kherson region shares its borders with Donetsk, Crimea, and the Black Sea. With Crimea already under its control since 2014, the capture of Kherson city and the eastern industrial heartland Donbas was expected to help Russia move its troops and artillery from Crimea into Ukraine.

After capturing the salt-mining town of Soledar, Russia moved its gaze to Bakhmut in recent months, reported Al Jazeera. Moscow has portrayed the battle for the town as key to capturing all of Ukraine’s Donbas region – comprising Donetsk and Luhansk.

As of January this year, Russia claims to have seized most of Luhansk, but about half of Donetsk remains under Ukraine’s control.

Why does this region matter to Russia? In the Donbas region, Russia-backed separatists have fought Ukrainian troops for almost nine years. A particularly large proportion of the population here is ethnically Russian. Moreover, Putin has often accused Ukraine of carrying out a genocide in the east, and the fighting in the Donbas region for Russia is not a war for territory, but for “liberation”.

Nord Stream compromised

In September last year, Nord Stream 1, Russia’s largest gas pipeline to Europe, was closed indefinitely after a number of leaks were found in it and a parallel pipeline, Nord Stream 2. EU leaders said the leaks were deliberate, a claim Moscow denied. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline supplied the European Union states with about 35 percent of all the gas they import from Russia.

“The large-scale ‘gas leak’ from Nord Stream 1 is nothing more than a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards the EU,” Kyiv’s Presidential advisor Mikhaylo Podolyak said on Twitter. Russia later blamed the British navy for the sabotage.

A veteran American investigative journalist claimed the bombing was carried out by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in a covert operation, a claim the White House termed as “complete fiction”.

As of February, Russia has called a Security Council meeting to discuss the matter after circulating a resolution calling for an urgent UN investigation, according to Al Jazeera.

Aid helps Ukraine resist Russia offensive

A win for Russia in Mariupol was marred by its forces’ retreat from areas near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city. Ukraine continued to put up a tough front as western weapons, including U.S.-supplied HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, reached the country.

The US, United Kingdom, European Union, Japan, France, Poland, and Australia, among others, aided Ukraine with military and humanitarian aid and slapped sanctions on Russia. On the other hand, Russia was backed by close ally Belarus, which allowed Moscow to use its territory as a launchpad for attacks.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the United States on December 21 and addressed the Congress. On his first trip abroad since the war began, Zelenskyy met his US counterpart Joe Biden and secured Patriot air defense missile systems and other weapons.

With over €70 billion in funds, the US tops the list of donor countries, followed by the European Union and its member states, which have mobilised over €50 billion. Military support valued at around €2.2 billion is planned for 2023, DW reported.

Food, gas prices soar

A global impact of the war became visible in the early months of the war when a threat to food security loomed as supplies of grain remained stuck in “the bread basket of the world” Ukraine, leading to soaring food prices and pushing many countries to the brink of famine.

The United Nations and Turkey then brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative, under which Ukraine and Russia agreed to provide ships with grains safe passage to and from Ukrainian ports. Months later, Russia halted its role in the Black Sea deal for an “indefinite term” because it said it could not “guarantee the safety of civilian ships”. As of February, the price of wheat, which peaked at over €430 per ton by May 2022, has fallen back under €300, just a notch above the price it fetched before the invasion.

In this photo provided by Azov Special Forces Regiment of the Ukrainian National Guard Press Office, a Ukrainian soldier stands inside the ruined Azovstal steel plant prior to surrender to the Russian forces in Mariupol, Ukraine, May 16, 2022. (AP)

Russia, a major exporter of oil and gas, also slashed supplies following Western sanctions, fuelling a cost-of-living crisis, especially in Europe. Later, the Nord Stream 1 and 2 sabotage led to a further cut in supplies. However, Russia’s income from energy exports is now back to the pre-war level, according to DW.

Looking ahead

In September, Putin had warned that “in the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us.” In a step further, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov warned that the war anniversary “will not turn out to be the only events that will gain the world’s attention”.

Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his government’s goal is not just to fend off offensives, but also to retake all Ukrainian territory captured by Russia, including Crimea. Kyiv has urged its Western allies for more military support, with its most recent requests focused on F16 fighter jets.

However, senior US, British and Ukrainian officials told CNN they are skeptical Russia has amassed the manpower and resources to make significant gains.

In other developments, Bloomberg News reported that the Biden administration is planning new export controls and sanctions targeting Russia’s defence and energy sectors, financial institutions and several individuals.

US secretary of state Antony Blinken, on the other hand, was quoted as saying by The Guardian that China may be on the brink of supplying arms to Russia.

With inputs from agencies