Nobel Peace Prize 2026: Trump wants it, Carney eyeing it, but could International Space Station win?
The Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce the winner in Oslo on October 9. It received 287 candidates this year - 208 individuals and 79 organisations.
A close-up view of a Nobel Prize medal at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in Bethesda. (Photo: AP)
The International Space Station could be a surprise choice for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, according to forecasters quoted by the Associated Press. Other names being discussed include US President Donald Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, emergency teams in Sudan, children’s advocates in Ukraine and two international courts.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce the winner in Oslo on October 9. It received 287 candidates this year – 208 individuals and 79 organisations. Predicting the winner is inherently speculative, with the committee having made surprising and controversial choices in the past.
Express InfoGenIE · Nobel Peace Prize
Nobel Peace Prize 2026: From the ISS to Trump, who is in the conversation?
Tap through five sections on the names being discussed before the October 9 announcement.
The ISS shows how “geopolitical rivals can cooperate around a shared, peaceful endeavor” — American and Russian partners have kept working together even after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), led by acting director Haakon Gjerløw, added the ISS to its shortlist this year, calling it “a rare symbol of global cooperation”. The station has been continuously crewed since November 2000.
Source: AP, PRIO via News in English
03 · The political names
Discussed — not confirmed
These are names discussed by experts and prediction markets. The Nobel Committee keeps nominations secret for 50 years and does not confirm nominees.
IN THE CONVERSATIONAP Photo/Rod Lamkey, Jr.
Donald Trump
US President
Why discussedHas made no secret of wanting the prize; features in prediction markets.
The caveatFaces controversy over the US-Israel war on Iran that began in February.
IN THE CONVERSATIONREUTERS/Todd Korol
Mark Carney
Canadian Prime Minister
Why discussedStood out for standing up to Trump on issues such as US tariffs; features in prediction markets.
The caveatExperts expect a “non-controversial” pick this year.
Source: AP, News in English
04 · Institutions & groups
Tap a card to see why it is in the frame
Emergency Response RoomsSudan’s grassroots, volunteer-run relief network, delivering food and aid in the war.
Save the Children + Mykola KulebaDiscussed as a joint pairing: the children’s charity and Ukrainian advocate Mykola Kuleba, who leads Save Ukraine.
Committee to Protect JournalistsFlagged after the deadliest two years for reporters in 45 years.
ICJ + ICCThe International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court, discussed together as guardians of international law.
Source: AP, PRIO shortlist via News in English
05 · What to watch on October 9
Six things that will shape the pick
International cooperation
Peace-building
Humanitarian work
International law
Women’s representation
Individual or organisation?
20 of 112 individual laureates in the prize’s 125-year history have been women. In the past 15 years, eight women have won individually, against six men.
Sources: Norwegian Nobel Institute, AP, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). Names in sections 2–4 are discussed by experts and are not confirmed nominees.
Haakon Gjerløw, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, is considered a prominent Nobel Peace Prize forecaster. He told AP that the organisation behind the space station is a rare symbol of countries working together at a time when many are turning towards narrower national interests. His institute’s annual watch list is closely followed by Nobel analysts and prediction-market participants.
AP reported that experts believe the committee usually looks at whether peace lasts, whether the work builds links between nations, and whether it strengthens the quiet work of institutions.
Trump, Carney and other names in Nobel conversation
Trump has made no secret of his desire to win the prize. Several political leaders have said they nominated him, although the Nobel Committee does not confirm individual nominations. AP said his candidacy could prove controversial given the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran. Shawn Davies, a senior analyst at the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, said he doubted even Trump’s own supporters would expect him to win, given what he described as a “forever war” in Iran.
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Carney has gained attention abroad this year, mainly by standing up to Trump on issues such as US tariffs. A win for him would make ties with the US worse, said Nelson Wiseman, a professor emeritus at the University of Toronto, who added that Trump will be unhappy whoever gets the prize.
Gjerløw’s list also has Ukrainian children’s advocate Mykola Kuleba, Save the Children, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, which is a local relief network, and the Committee to Protect Journalists. The group is on the list after two years in which more reporters died than in any two years since records began almost 45 years ago.
The International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court were also named together. AP reported that the ICC has drawn both criticism and support over its arrest warrants for leaders including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump has long criticised the court. In July, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a campaign against the ICC, saying it threatened US sovereignty. Later that month, the ICC’s chief prosecutor was removed from office amid sexual misconduct allegations.
Gjerløw said the committee’s task is harder after last year’s winner, Venezuela’s María Corina Machado, presented her Nobel medal to Trump in a symbolic gesture. This came days after US forces removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power.
The report added that this year’s prize comes at a time of more war and conflict than in decades, including in Sudan, Ukraine, Yemen, Iran and the wider West Asia. Davies linked this to changes in the global security order and to a fall in US readiness to enforce international rules. He said Washington has gone from guarantor of the post-war order to a violator of it in some cases.
Jody Williams, who shared the 1997 prize with the International Campaign to Ban Landmines, hopes more women will win. Only 20 of the 112 individual winners in the prize’s 125-year history have been women. In the past 15 years, eight women have won on their own, against six men. Names of women in betting markets this year include Gaza surgeon Sara al-Saqqa and Yulia Navalnaya, the Russian opposition figure and widow of Alexei Navalny.
Nobel week starts on Monday with the medicine prize, followed by physics Tuesday, chemistry on Wednesday and literature on Thursday. The peace prize is on Friday, and the economics prize follows on October 12. The prize money is 12 million Swedish kronor, about $1.2 million, whether it goes to one person, a small group or an organisation.
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A close-up view of a Nobel Prize medal at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in Bethesda. (Photo: AP) 
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