Is Trump losing the Gulf? Why Saudi Arabia and US allies are rethinking ties with Washington

The reason being Trump unable to manage diplomacy required to seek peace with Iran, his contrary statements during the last five months, and Gulf nations paying the price for the conflict. The mood of the West Asian nations were confirmed to The Post by three officials and a former US diplomat.

‘We are paying the price’

One Gulf official told the Post that anger towards the US has reached its highest point since Washington and Israel first struck Iran in February, saying: “Trump started this war, and we are paying the price.”

Analyst Firas Maksad of the Eurasia Group told the paper that allies feel dragged into a war they never wanted, and that Trump’s Iran policy is widely seen in the region as “erratic” and “unpredictable.” Gulf nations like Saudi and Qatar are some of the biggest energy suppliers and the exports have significantly hit over the last five months over the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis, the Iranian proxy in Yemen, have also threatened to choke Bab al-Mandab Strait linking Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.

Why are Gulf States losing trust in Washington?

For decades, US forces in the Gulf were tolerated more than welcomed. A Western diplomat familiar with the region says that before the war, the American presence was seen as an unwanted but useful arrangement. Now, even that usefulness is being questioned.

Anna Jacobs of the Arab Gulf States Institute says trust has eroded steadily since the war started, with allies feeling that US actions in the region are making them less safe rather than more.

Despite the anger, these countries still depend heavily on the US for weapons, training and intelligence. Douglas Silliman, a former US ambassador to Kuwait and Iraq, describes it as a strange bind: Gulf states are furious that America started the war, yet they still need America to fight it.

Even so, the frustration is pushing some governments to look elsewhere. Last week, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a mutual defence pact. A senior European official called it a clear message to Washington, saying the three Sunni-majority powers are spreading their security bets because they no longer see the US as sufficient on its own.

Saudi Arabia bears the brunt

Saudi Arabia has come under the heaviest pressure. Beyond direct Iranian strikes, the kingdom is also being targeted by Iran-backed Houthi fighters in Yemen, who have repeatedly hit Saudi energy sites and tried to block the Bab al-Mandab strait near the Red Sea.

With the Strait of Hormuz shut since early in the war, Saudi Arabia has had to reroute its oil exports through Red Sea ports instead.

The numbers show why the strain is so severe. Saudi Arabia alone shipped over 5 million barrels of oil a day through the Strait of Hormuz before the closure, and the waterway as a whole carried close to a fifth of the world’s oil supply, according to the International Energy Agency. Tanker traffic through the strait has fallen by nearly 90% since the war began, and oil prices have climbed above $100 a barrel as a result.

Attitudes across the Gulf have shifted as the conflict has dragged on. Oman opposed the war from day one, while Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain were initially more open to it. The UAE has since carried out repeated strikes on targets inside Iran, while Saudi forces have hit Iran-backed groups in Iraq.

A senior European official says that early on, Gulf states were not exactly supportive of the war, but they were not firmly against it either. Leaders in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi reportedly believed a fast, decisive win could work in their favour. That hope faded before the first round of US-Iran talks in April, once it became clear Iran’s government was not about to fall and the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed.

Bader Al-Saif, a historian at Kuwait University, says Trump’s shifting positions have unsettled governments across the Gulf, arguing there was little coherent planning behind the US approach even before recent tensions.

He is especially critical of the memorandum of understanding signed between the US and Iran in June, saying it ignored the Gulf’s core worries namely Iran’s missile programme and its backing of armed proxy groups. Because those terms did not suit the region, he says, the agreement collapsed quickly.

A prolonged war is also starting to bite economically. Summer typically slows things down in the Gulf anyway, as tourism dips and residents stay indoors to avoid the heat.

In Kuwait, Iranian drones and missiles are still a regular occurrence, though daily life has largely returned to normal, according to Al-Saif. He points to the country’s experience during Iraq’s 1990 invasion as proof that Kuwaitis can endure hardship and come out the other side.

The White House rejects the idea that ties with the Gulf are fraying. An official there insists Trump maintains exceptional relationships with regional partners and says the US has kept up regular contact with its allies throughout the conflict, arguing that Iran is now more isolated than ever because of what the official called its own aggressive actions.

Saudi, Emirati, Qatari, Kuwaiti and Bahraini governments have not commented publicly on the reported tensions.