Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has been privately urging US President Donald Trump to press ahead with the ongoing US-Israel military campaign against Iran, not as a mere tactical manoeuvre, but as a defining strategic moment to fundamentally reshape the region’s balance of power.
Officials familiar with the discussions told The New York Times that the Crown Prince has championed a decisive, sustained campaign aimed at dismantling Iran’s hardline government. He contends that Tehran represents an enduring existential threat to Gulf stability, one that cannot be neutralised through containment alone, but only through regime change.
These views align partially with those of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has consistently viewed Iran as a strategic threat. However, according to the analysts, while Israel may tolerate a weakened or internally unstable Iran, Saudi Arabia fears that a failed Iranian state could trigger regional chaos, empowering militias and posing direct security risks to Gulf nations, the report added.
Diverging positions
Despite reports of private pressure for escalation, Saudi officials have publicly maintained a more cautious stance. In an official statement, the kingdom reiterated its support for a peaceful resolution, stressing that its priority remains defending civilian infrastructure and halting ongoing attacks.
Iran’s retaliatory strikes, which were primarily drone and missile attacks, have already disrupted critical oil infrastructure across the region. The situation has been worse by instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy supplies through which most Gulf oil exports pass.
Military options and war risks
The report, citing unnamed sources, added that Mohammed bin Salman has encouraged more aggressive measures, including potential US ground operations targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure. One option reportedly under consideration involves seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub a move that would mark a major escalation and carry risks, NYT reported.
While Trump has at times hinted at de-escalation, including claims of “productive conversations” with Iran, his messaging has remained inconsistent. Tehran has denied that any meaningful negotiations are underway.
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Economy and oil shock
The conflict’s economic fallout is already being felt. Iranian attacks have disrupted oil flows and driven volatility in global energy markets. Although Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies have developed alternative pipelines, these routes have also come under threat.
For Riyadh, the stakes extend beyond immediate security concerns. Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious Vision 2030 reform agenda aimed at transforming Saudi Arabia into a global investment and tourism hub is highly dependent on regional stability. A prolonged conflict risks derailing these plans, especially as the kingdom already faces mounting fiscal pressures.
Calculations
Analysts suggest the Saudi leadership is balancing two competing fears, ending the war prematurely could leave an emboldened Iran, while prolonging it could expose the kingdom to sustained attacks and economic strain.
The legacy of the 2019 Iran-linked strikes on Saudi oil facilities which temporarily halved the kingdom’s production, continues to shape Riyadh’s thinking. Although Saudi Arabia had moved toward diplomatic rapprochement with Iran in recent years, the current conflict has effectively erased those gains.
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Regional officials warn that trust between Gulf states and Iran has “completely shattered,” raising concerns about long-term instability regardless of how the conflict ends, NYT reported.
Even as Israeli strikes have eliminated several Iranian military leaders, Tehran’s ruling establishment remains intact. US officials remain skeptical that military force alone can bring about regime change, showcasing the risk of a prolonged and potentially unwinnable conflict.
