Ultimate authority in Iran sits with its Supreme Leader, a position created after the 1979 revolution. After Khamenei’s death, his son, Mojtaba Khamenei was named successor by the Assembly of Experts.
Although, he has issued multiple statements on the escalating crisis, he has not appeared in public since the strike that killed his father. He has never held elected or formal government office, but maintains close ties with the country’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. As Supreme Leader, he holds formal control over the armed forces and the nuclear programme.
However, his physical absence has fed uncertainty over how much authority he can exercise.
‘I’m not sure who’s running Iran’
Israel has pushed the narrative that Iran’s leadership stands fractured. “I’m not sure who’s running Iran right now,” Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said earlier this week. He added that Mojtaba Khamenei “has not shown his face” and that Israel “cannot vouch for what exactly is happening there.”
Officials from the United States and Israel have said that Mojtaba Khamenei may have been wounded in the same strike. His wife, Zahra Haddad Adel, was killed.
Netanyahu described Iran’s command structure as “utter chaos,” news agency AP reported.
Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute said the removal of key figures across politics, intelligence and the military will reshape the system. “Leadership matters, and the loss of key decision-makers … will have transformative consequences,” Ozcelik said, as reported by AP.
She added that focus on the idea of “regime collapse” misses what is already underway. “The regime is already changing,” she said, warning that the full impact may take years, not months.
The Revolutionary Guard steps forward
Several analysts now place real power with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.
“The Revolutionary Guard is the state now,” Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said to AP. Before the war, civilian leadership operated under the Supreme Leader, while the Guard held the second position in the hierarchy.
But now with the senior Khamenei gone and his successor yet to establish authority, the Guard has moved to the centre.
Formed after the 1979 revolution, the force runs parallel to the regular military. Its Quds Force has shaped Iran’s regional network, backing groups and governments aligned against Israel and the United States.
“Our military units are now in fact independent and somehow isolated,” Israeli Foregn Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said earlier this month. He said units act on “general instructions” issued in advance.
He indicated that some actions, including strikes beyond Iran’s borders, did not follow direct political direction. “What happened in Oman was not our choice,” he said, adding that the armed forces had been asked to exercise caution in selecting targets.
A system built to absorb shocks
Iran’s structure does not rely on a single chain of command. “It has multiple layers of leadership,” Vaez said, according to AP. He argued that removing senior figures does not halt decision-making. Lower ranks can step in and continue operations.
He warned against assuming collapse. “The expectation that this regime will … implode by removing a few dozen senior leaders is nothing but an illusion,” he said.
A mourner holds a poster depicting Mojtaba Khamenei, right, the successor to his late father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, during the funeral procession for senior Iranian military officials and civilians killed during the US-Israel strikes. (AP Photo) 
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