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After 15 months of devastating war between Israel and Hamas, a ceasefire took effect on Sunday — albeit a few hours after the scheduled time —marking a critical moment in a conflict that has reshaped West Asia. The agreement, brokered through months of painstaking diplomacy by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, aims to halt the bloodshed and initiate a release of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
However, questions remain about what the future holds for Gaza as the ceasefire opens a fragile window for negotiations.
At 9.15 GMT (2.45 pm India time) on Sunday, the ceasefire began, with Israeli forces withdrawing from parts of Gaza, according to Hamas-affiliated media outlets. The Gaza ceasefire began after Hamas named the three women hostages it plans to release on Sunday. The militant group’s delay led to the postponement of the ceasefire by more than two hours, with Israel saying earlier that it would keep fighting until the names were handed over in accordance with the agreement.
The initial phase of the ceasefire, which will last six weeks, is structured to allow the release of hostages in stages. The Israeli prime minister’s office said Sunday that the release of three hostages held by Hamas in Gaza would take place after 7.30 PM IST (1400 GMT) on Sunday.
In a statement, it also said four other living women hostages would be freed in seven days.
The exchange of prisoners is a significant element of the ceasefire arrangement, with 33 of the remaining 98 hostages — primarily women, children, the elderly, and the injured — expected to be released over the next several weeks. For each group of hostages released, Israel has agreed to free nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, a gesture aimed at maintaining momentum toward peace.
Yet the ceasefire is fraught with uncertainties, as Israeli military forces have issued a stern warning to Gaza residents, advising them not to approach troops or move through certain parts of the enclave until clear instructions are provided. The complexity of managing such a fragile truce, amidst heightened tensions, underscores the precariousness of the situation on the ground.
Diplomatic pressure and US involvement
The ceasefire agreement follows a series of high-stakes negotiations spearheaded by US President Joe Biden’s administration, working closely with West Asia envoy Brett McGurk. Biden’s team collaborated with outgoing President Donald Trump’s Middle East advisor Steve Witkoff, who had been pressing for a deal in the days leading up to Biden’s inauguration.
Trump had repeatedly insisted on a swift resolution, warning of serious consequences if Hamas failed to release the hostages. His rhetoric, paired with sustained diplomatic pressure from Washington, helped push both sides toward an agreement, though the ceasefire remains fragile and could easily unravel.
The hostage exchange: Step by step
The hostage release will be a key test for both sides. On Sunday, three female hostages will be handed over to the Red Cross in exchange for 90 Palestinian prisoners, marking the beginning of what both sides hope will be a sustained process of de-escalation. Over the following weeks, additional groups of hostages will be released every seven days, with each group exchanged for Palestinian detainees.
Among the prisoners to be freed are hundreds of young Palestinians, including teenage boys, as well as members of militant groups convicted of attacks that claimed the lives of Israelis. The exchange is a contentious issue in Israel, where public opinion has been sharply divided between the desire for the hostages’ safe return and concerns about releasing militants back into Gaza.
Rebuilding Gaza: Uncertain future amid ruins
While the ceasefire is seen as a potential path to ending the war, the future of Gaza remains deeply uncertain. Entire neighbourhoods have been reduced to rubble, with nearly 47,000 Palestinians killed since the fighting began in October 2023, according to Gaza’s health ministry. Israel disputes those numbers, arguing that many of the dead were Hamas fighters, though health officials contend that most were civilians.
What remains clear is that Gaza’s infrastructure has been decimated. Any effort to rebuild the enclave will take years and require billions of dollars in international aid, but such reconstruction efforts depend heavily on the political stability of the region, which is anything but assured.
Hamas, despite suffering heavy losses, retains a foothold in Gaza, and its leadership has vowed to continue resisting Israeli occupation. Israel, meanwhile, has made it clear that it will not tolerate the resurgence of Hamas’ control over Gaza. Israeli forces have cleared significant sections of the territory, a move interpreted by analysts as an attempt to create buffer zones that will allow the military to strike targets inside Gaza with greater ease in the future.
Political fallout in Israel
In Israel, the war has severely undermined public confidence in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government. The conflict was ignited by a surprise Hamas attack on southern Israel in October 2023, which killed over 1,200 people and saw more than 250 others taken hostage — an intelligence and security failure that remains a source of widespread public anger.
As the hostages begin to return home, Netanyahu will likely face pressure from hardliners within his coalition, who have already threatened to abandon his government if the war against Hamas does not resume. The prime minister’s political survival may well hinge on his ability to balance competing demands: the desire of Washington and key allies for an enduring ceasefire, and the domestic pressure to continue military operations against Hamas.
A War that reshaped the Middle East
Beyond Gaza, the war has rippled across the broader Middle East, triggering conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon and drawing Israel into direct confrontation with Iran for the first time. Despite billions spent by Iran in building up a network of militant groups around Israel, its influence in the region has taken a significant hit. Hezbollah’s once formidable missile arsenal has been largely destroyed, and much of its leadership has been killed.
In Syria, the collapse of the Assad regime — an outcome few anticipated when the war began — has further weakened Iran’s position in the region, leaving Israel militarily unchallenged but diplomatically isolated.
International scrutiny and war crimes allegations
Even as Israel emerges from the conflict militarily dominant, its international standing has suffered. Outrage over the humanitarian toll in Gaza has mounted, with Netanyahu now facing allegations of war crimes at the International Criminal Court (ICC) and accusations of genocide at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Israel has vehemently denied the charges, accusing countries like South Africa, which initiated the ICJ case, of anti-Semitism. Still, the legal challenges are a new and serious test for a country that has long struggled to balance its military actions with the demands of international law.
As the ceasefire takes hold, the world watches Gaza anxiously, hoping that the fragile truce might mark the beginning of a lasting peace — though few are willing to bet on it.
With inputs from Agencies
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