In a keenly-awaited announcement, China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has said it plans to cut its emissions by 7 to 10 per cent from its peak levels by the year 2035.
This is the first time China has unveiled a plan to make direct emission reductions. Till now, China was focusing on reducing its emissions intensity, or emissions per unit of GDP. Its absolute emissions have been on the rise.
China accounts for almost a third of the world’s annual greenhouse gas emissions. Its emissions in 2024 were estimated at about 15.8 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by Climate Action Tracker, an independent climate-focused platform. The United States, the second largest emitter, is far behind with estimated emissions of about 6 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent a year, while India’s emissions are around 3 billion tonnes.
In a video message at a special meeting on climate change convened by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session in New York, Chinese President Xi Jinping also said that China planned to increase its solar and wind energy capacity to over six times of its 2020 levels. China had about 530 GW of installed capacity of solar and wind energy in 2020. That means, it is aiming to have well over 3,000 GW of solar and wind by the year 2035. It has already reached about 1,600 GW of solar and wind installed capacity.
In contrast, India’s entire electricity installed capacity, from all sources, is currently less than 500 GW.
China’s decision to begin reducing its emissions could be the most important event for global climate action. Between 1995, when the world began to take action against climate change, and now, China’s annual emissions have increased by four times. It has been the main driver of continued rise of global greenhouse gas emissions which have still not peaked.
In his announcement, President Xi Jinping pegged the targeted 7-10 per cent emissions reductions by 2035 to its peak levels. It is not yet clear when China’s emissions would peak. Some analysis suggest that China’s emissions may already have peaked last year, considering the massive deployment of renewable energy that has been going on in the last few years. China has installed more than 300 GW of renewable energy capacity in each of the last two years.
But other estimates, including that by Climate Action Tracker, suggest that China’s emissions were still growing, though not very rapidly. Its 2024 emissions, for example, marked a marginal increase over 2023, according to Climate Action Tracker.
China has previously said it would let its CO2 emissions (not all greenhouse gases) peak around 2030, while making efforts to let that happen earlier. In fact, this is one of the commitments it has made in its climate action plan for the year 2030.
Every country is required to prepare and submit a climate action plan, detailing the actions it was taking to fight climate change. In Paris Agreement language, this is called Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs. The NDCs are supposed to be updated every five years, with every successive NDC marking a progression in action over the existing one. The previous updating happened around 2020, and countries defined their climate targets for the year 2030.
This year, countries have to update their NDCs again, and submit their plans for the 2035 timeframe. About 50 countries have already submitted their updated NDCs.
Xi’s announcements at the special climate meeting on Wednesday would be formalised in China’s updated NDC which is yet to be submitted.
ExplainedWhy the move is crucial
China’s absolute emissions have been on the rise. Between 1995, when the world began to take action against climate change, and now, China’s annual emissions have gone up by four times. While the announcements are yet to be formalised, some climate observers were of the opinion China could have promised to do much more.
The announcement was expectedly met with a lot of excitement, though some climate observers were of the view that China could have promised to do much more.
Simon Stiell, executive secretary of UN Climate Change, said China’s announcement marked an acceleration of climate action.
“China is delivering clean, reliable, and affordable energy at an unprecedented scale. Its updated NDC shows this acceleration of climate action, manufacturing, and deployment will continue, and increase. The scale of investment implied by these energy targets is unprecedented. It will lower costs and drive innovation in China and around the world, which is essential if we are to see the further step changes in clean energy deployment we need. We know China has a long and impressive record of meeting and surpassing its targets for climate change and clean energy,” Stiell said.
“Today’s news is a clear signal that the future global economy will run on clean energy. And that for every country, stronger and faster climate action means more economic growth, jobs, affordable and secure energy, cleaner air, and better health, for all of us, everywhere,” he said.
China accounts for almost a third of the world’s annual greenhouse gas emissions. (File) 
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