Brazil’s president and senior lawmakers redoubled their support for a major pension reform on Wednesday despite nationwide protests against the proposal and the expansion of a graft probe threatening the ruling coalition. The government’s agenda received a vote of confidence from Moody’s Investors Service, which cited progress on fiscal reforms as a reason for revising its outlook for Brazil’s sovereign credit rating to stable from negative.
Brushing aside the protests, Brazil’s currency and benchmark stock index both rose around 2.0 per cent on Wednesday, leading a rally in Latin American assets after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled a gradual pace for interest rate rises.
Wednesday’s developments underscored that the political momentum is still in President Michel Temer’s favor as he pushes ahead with an unpopular austerity agenda that has drawn opposition into the streets but retained the support of congressional leaders.
The public backing from legislative allies was particularly important after Brazil’s top public prosecutor moved on Tuesday to target dozens of senior politicians as part of a corruption probe centered on kickbacks at state oil company Petrobras.
Brazilian media reported on Tuesday that investigations have been requested into five of Temer’s ministers, including his chief of staff Eliseu Padilha, as well as the speakers of both chambers of Congress and two former presidents.
Globo TV reported on Wednesday that a sixth minister was being targeted in the probe, Trade Minister Marcos Pereira, as well as the governors of five states, including Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais.
Pereira, an Evangelical bishop, said in a statement that his Brazilian Republican Party had received no illegal funds and he was ready to help prosecutors dismiss “this unjust conjecture.”
Despite the snowballing investigation and well-organized union resistance, Thomaz Favaro, a political analyst with global consultancy Control Risks, said Temer has built a more robust coalition than his predecessor, Dilma Rousseff, who was impeached last year as the Petrobras scandal gained steam.
“The coalition behind Temer has proven to be more stable than Dilma’s and will continue to be so despite corruption investigations, due to the degree of ideological affinity that unites it on business initiatives and concern for Brazil’s fiscal position,” he said.
Temer’s most senior congressional allies are reportedly among the politicians in the sights of public prosecutor Rodrigo Janot, but those same lawmakers said on Wednesday they were pressing on with reforms.
“Everyone knew there would be a Janot’s list. It was already priced in here in Congress,” a leading lawmaker told Reuters, requesting he not be named.
Asked if the scandal would interfere with the legislative calendar, Senate President Eunicio Oliveira and House Speaker Rodrigo Maia said nothing had changed. Both said investigations would give a chance to clarify allegations in the press.
Their steadfast support contrasted with rowdy demonstrations that occupied the finance ministry in the capital Brasilia and snarled traffic in the business hub of Sao Paulo to protest Temer’s proposed reforms.
The impact of a strike by public transportation workers was lighter than anticipated in Rio de Janeiro and other smaller cities.
Still, an afternoon march drew tens of thousands to a midtown thoroughfare in Sao Paulo, highlighting well organized union resistance to limiting pension benefits and raising the retirement age as the government has proposed. A smaller demonstration in Rio was marked by clashes between masked protesters and police, who used tear gas to control the crowd.
In Brasilia, Temer aides said the unions exaggerated the scale of the demonstrations and insisted such opposition would not hold up the pension reform bill or limit its scope.
Temer told small business owners in Brasilia on Wednesday that pension reform was essential to lifting the economy from its worst slump on record and closing a huge fiscal deficit before it triggered an even deeper crisis.
“We can’t do something too modest now or in four or five years we’ll have to follow the example of Portugal, Spain, Greece and other countries that had to make a much bigger cut because they didn’t take preventative measures,” he said.
Moody’s said it expected Temer’s pension reform to pass Congress in the second half of 2017.