Though delayed, the Southwest monsoon is most likely to be normal this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.
In its second stage of Long Range Forecast (LRF), the IMD has stated that the rainfall for the country as a whole would be 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) for the four-month monsoon season.
As per IMD records, LPA of the monsoon season over the country is 89 cm, calculated for the 1951-2000 period. This is the average rainfall recorded from June to September during the 50-year period and is kept as a benchmark while forecasting the quantitative rainfall for the monsoon season every year.
While the monsoon is yet to make further advance after May 25 from Andaman and Nicobar, there are indications of its progress to Comorin regions and some parts of Bay of Bengal over the upcoming 72 hours.
As per the earlier forecast, this time the monsoon will hit Kerala on June 6 — normal date for monsoon onset over Kerala is June 1.
The rainfall over all the four homogeneous regions, Northwest, Central India, Northeast and South Peninsula, too, looks promising this time, stated the second stage forecast.
“The rainfall will be well distributed through the season and over all geographical regions. The Northeast region, that normally receives very heavy rainfall, will experience marginally less rainfall for the overall season,” said an IMD official.
With the sowing window for kharif crops opening with the onset of monsoon, IMD officials have stated that rainfall during July and August will be very good and should benefit farmers.