The rainfall associated with the upcoming Northeast monsoon will be below normal over parts of Tamil Nadu, Sri Lanka and Maldives, a consensus statement issued by South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) – 17 stated.
This forum comprises experts from Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Myanmar, who collaborate and share their expertise in weather and climate predictions, along with climate data and seasonal forecasts.
The below normal rain in the upcoming months will be associated with the conditions created by La Nina. La Nina refers to the cooler-than-usual Sea Surface Temperatures recorded along the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
“Prevalence of La Nina is not favourable for good rainfall activity during the northeast monsoon season,” D S Pai, head, Climate Research and Services, India Meteorological Department (IMD). “This year, less than normal rain will be realised from October to December along the extreme southern regions of South Asia.”
As per latest observations, weak La Nina conditions emerged late last month. These conditions will prevail till the end of December, experts noted.
Subdued normal rainfall activity has been forecast over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep, regions along the Himalayan foothills in India – along with northern Pakistan – and Afghanistan, the statement read.
The Northeast monsoon officially commences by mid-October. It remains largely confined to Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Mahe, coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining sub-divisions, and is a key water source for agriculture over Tamil Nadu in particular.
The SASCOF-17 statement also said that for regions along east and northeast India, normal to above normal rainfall will be realised during the October-December season. The winter could be warmer than usual this year.
“During the season, normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely over most parts of the region,” experts said.
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