UPSC Key: Women’s representation in Parliament, Minimum wages, and Indian economy slips to sixth largest

Key Points to Ponder:

— What were the main points of the Constitution (One Hundred and Thirty-First Amendment) Bill, 2026?

— What is the constitutional amendment?

— What is the process of constitutional amendment in the constitution?

— What is the purpose of the delimitation commission?

— WHo constitutes the Delimitation commission?

— What are the different types of amendment provided in Article 368?

— What is the Nari Shakti Vandan Act?

— What is the rationale for increasing the seats in the Parliament?

— What is the constitutional process of getting it done?

— How do Articles 82 and 170 shape the process of redrawing parliamentary and assembly constituencies?

Key Takeaways:

From the Front page: 298-230 voting score in House well short of required two-thirds majority

— In the first major legislative loss for the Modi government since it came to power in 2014, the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, 2026, seeking to advance reservation of 33% seats for women in an expanded Lok Sabha and state Assemblies and facilitate delimitation of constituencies, was defeated in Lok Sabha Friday evening.

— Of the 528 members present in the House, 298 voted in favour of the Bill and 230 opposed it, the result well short of the two-thirds majority needed for a Constitutional amendment Bill to clear the House.

— The amended women’s quota Bill — the 2023 women’s reservation law still stands – was put to vote after a marathon two-day debate during which Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah urged members to support the proposed legislation, and cautioned the Opposition that women of the country were watching their intent and would not forgive them if they were denied reservation.

— The Opposition, in turn, accused the government of using the women’s reservation issue to push for a delimitation exercise to help the BJP by redrawing the country’s electoral map and adversely impacting the representation of southern states in Lok Sabha.

From the Editorial Page: A political setback for the government, a democratic opening for the opposition 

— Pratap Bhanu Mehta writes: The defeat of the Constitution (One Hundred and Thirty-First Amendment) Bill, 2026, is an embarrassment for the government, a reminder of the potential of a united Opposition, and most importantly, a reprieve for a proper conversation over the Constitution.

— The introduction of the Bill had all the hallmarks of the BJP’s governing style. This was yet another attempt to further a sense of what this column had described as a permanent revolution. The governing style of permanent revolution is to destroy the power of all countervailing institutions, break all restraints, and consolidate executive power.

— The second feature of the permanent revolution is wresting personal ownership and credit for issues on which there is a wider political consensus. The one constant feature of Narendra Modi’s career as Prime Minister is that he has politically weaponised the issues of gender and sought to claim the moral and political high ground on those issues.

— The third hallmark of the permanent revolution is the constant need for mobilisation, in victory or defeat. In this case, as in so many others, a combination of hubris and unpreparedness led to defeat. But we also know in the past, for instance, in the moment of demonetisation, they can even turn hubris and incompetence into a rallying cry for mobilisation.

— The Opposition has won an opening. But if it is to continue the momentum on behalf of democracy, it will have to go into constant mobilisation and convince citizens that it stands for genuine democratic empowerment and institutional integrity.

Do You Know:

— Delimitation literally means the act or process of fixing limits or boundaries of territorial constituencies in a country or a province having a legislative body. The job of delimitation is assigned to a high power body. Such a body is known as Delimitation Commission or a Boundary Commission.

—  In India, such Delimitation Commissions have been constituted 4 times – in 1952 under the Delimitation Commission Act, 1952, in 1963 under Delimitation Commission Act, 1962, in 1973 under Delimitation Act, 1972 and in 2002 under Delimitation Act, 2002.

— The Delimitation Commission in India is a high power body whose orders have the force of law and cannot be called in question before any court. These orders come into force on a date to be specified by the President of India on this behalf.

— Article 82 of the Constitution provides for ‘readjustment’ of constituencies of Lok Sabha and the state Assemblies after every Census. The readjustment can lead to a change in the number of seats or a change in boundaries of constituencies. This is done to account for the changes in population over time, the main idea being that the value of the vote cast by every voter across the country has a similar value or weight.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Explained: How government’s delimitation push will reshape states’ representation in Lok Sabha 

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:

(1) With reference to the Delimitation Commission consider the following statements: (UPSC CSE 2012)

1. The orders of the Delimitation Commission cannot be challenged in a Court of Law.

2. When the orders of the Delimitation Commission are laid before the Lok Sabha or State Legislative Assembly, they cannot effect any modification in the orders.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

(a) 1 only

(b) 2 only

(c) Both 1 and 2

(d) Neither 1 nor 2

(2) Consider the following statements: (UPSC CSE, 2013)

1. An amendment to the Constitution of India can be initiated by an introduction of a bill in the Lok Sabha only.

2. If such an amendment seeks to make changes in the federal character of the Constitution, the amendment also requires to be ratified by the legislature of all the States of India.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

(a) 1 only

(b) 2 only

(c) Both 1 and 2

(d) Neither 1 nor 2

 

EXPLAINED

Women’s share in Houses rarely crosses half of 33%

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Indian Polity and Governance – Constitution, Political System, Panchayati Raj, Public Policy, Rights Issues

Mains Examination: General Studies-II: Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors and issues arising out of their design and implementation

What’s the ongoing story: On Friday, Lok Sabha defeated a constitutional amendment Bill to raise the share of women in India’s elected legislatures — both Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabhas — to 33% of their respective total seats. An analysis of past numbers shows that in terms of representation, the share of women has rarely breached the 15% mark across legislatures.

Key Points to Ponder:

— What is the status of women’s representation in the Parliament?

— What is the significance of women’s political representations?

— What are the various measures taken by the government to increase women’s political participation?

— What are the reasons for low representation of women in the Parliament?

— What is the women reservation Act, 2023?

— What is the status of women’s reservation in panchayats and ULBs?

Key Takeaways:

— In Lok Sabha, the Lower House of India’s Parliament, the figure has never exceeded even that. From the first Lok Sabha (1951-52), when there were 24 women MPs out of a total 489 (4.9%), the figure for the incumbent House — the 18th Lok Sabha (2024-29) — stands at 75 out of a total 543 (13.6%).

— The highest figure in this regard was in the previous Lok Sabha (2019-24), when women comprised 14.36% — 78 out of 543 — of the House’s membership.

— On the other hand, India’s lowest figure of 3.5% came during the 6th Lok Sabha (1977-79): the 1977 general election was held right after the Emergency (1975-77) imposed by then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. Gandhi, India’s first woman PM (and the only one to date), lost that election after 11 years at the helm.

The share of women in Lok Sabha has seen a gradual upward trend over time.

— As Chart 1 indicates, the percentage share of women in Lok Sabha has seen a gradual upward trend over time. But it took India 15 general elections to reach a double-digit percentage figure (10.9% in 2009), which underlines the fact that women still have some way to go to reach the 33% mark if reservation is not implemented.

— Rajya Sabha, or the Upper House, while not a legislative body whose members are directly elected by the people, presently has 39 women MPs out of a total of 245: about 16%.

A look at party-wise numbers in Lok Sabha shows that of all parties with a minimum of 10 MPs in the Lower House, only the Trinamool Congress’s share of women MPs exceeds the 33% mark.

— A look at party-wise numbers in Lok Sabha (Chart 2) shows that of all parties with a minimum of 10 MPs in the Lower House, only the Trinamool Congress’s share of women MPs exceeds the 33% mark: 11 of its 28 Lok Sabha MPs (39.3%).

— The BJP, which leads the ruling National Democratic Alliance and is the single largest party in Lok Sabha, has only 31 women MPs out of a total of 240 (12.9%). The Congress, which is the primary Opposition party and has the second most number of MPs, isn’t much better off: 14 of its 98 MPs are women (14.3%).

As things stand, as many as 19 Assemblies have less than 10% women.

— Data from India’s legislatures in 31 states and Union Territories (UTs) indicates that barring one state (Chhattisgarh at 21.1%), no other incumbent Legislative Assembly has more than 15% share of women MLAs (Chart 3).

— In terms of women’s representation in Assemblies, Tripura comes second with 15%, followed by Jharkhand (14.8%), Haryana (14.4%), and West Bengal (13.6%). The lowest share of women MLAs are in Nagaland and Puducherry (both 3.3%).

— On why the share of women has struggled to cross 15% in India’s elected legislatures, Deshpande said: “Politics is about power, and power is not very hospitable to any kind of weaker groups. So, women being in a patriarchal society (and) being the less privileged group, they would not get their due share in this field as well.”

— Out of some 190 countries, India ranks 147 in terms of women’s representation in Lower Houses of Parliament according to April 2026 data by Parline, a tracker on national parliaments maintained by the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU).

According to an IPU report released last year, the percentage of parliament seats held by women worldwide rose from 11.3% in 1995 to 27.2% in 2025.

— Parline data shows that there are eight countries that have achieved parity or more number of women compared with men (at least 50%): Rwanda, Cuba, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Bolivia, Mexico, Andorra, and the United Arab Emirates. Some 56 countries have over 33% women in their national legislatures.

Do You Know:

— Research on women’s involvement in political representation often highlights how women in politics can lead to effective policy outcomes, reduced corruption, less conflict, and greater inclusion of women in the labour force. The 73rd and the 74th Constitutional Amendment Acts, hence, will remain a landmark in Indian political history.

— The amendments, which came into effect in 1993, mandate the reservation of one-third of all elected positions in local governance structures in rural areas (also known as Panchayati Raj Institutions or PRIs) for women. The move aimed at ensuring equitable representation of women in decision-making bodies at the grassroots level.

— India has over 1.45 million or 46% women in local governance across the country. The 2023 Global Gender Gap report added the inclusion of women’s participation in local governance as a new indicator of gender equality.

— With women constituting 46.6% of total elected representatives in local governance bodies, India is one of the highest ranked countries in terms of women’s participation in local governance.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Gender Mainstreaming | How Manju Devi in Panchayat reflects a widespread reality in India

📍Where are the women in India’s political parties? 

Previous year UPSC Mains Question Covering similar theme:

The reservation of seats for women in the institutions of local self-government has had a limited impact on the patriarchal character of the Indian Political Process.” Comment. (UPSC CSE 2019)

How India’s economy slipped to sixth largest, behind Japan, UK

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance

Mains Examination: General Studies-III: Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilisation, of resources, growth, development and employment.

What’s the ongoing story:  According to the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India is no longer the 4th largest economy in the world.

Key Points to Ponder:

— What is the status of India’s GDP?

— What is the exchange rate? How is it determined?

— How does the disruption in the global economy impact India’s GDP?

— How is the GDP calculated?

— What are the recent revisions in the GDP calculation?

— What is the base year? Why was it changed for the GDP calculation?

Key Takeaways:

— According to the latest WEO, in 2026 India’s gross domestic product — the total value of all goods and services produced inside the country — will be around $4.15 trillion (up from $3.92 trillion in 2025) while the UK’s GDP will be $4.27 trillion (up from $4 trillion in 2025) and Japan’s GDP would actually fall from $4.48 trillion in 2025 to $4.38 trillion in 2026.

— In September 2022, when India overtook the UK to become the 5th-largest economy, the shift was celebrated with distinct joy given the past of British colonial rule in India.

— In May last year, Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam declared that India had overtaken Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in the world. But far from becoming the 3rd-largest, India has slid down to the 6th rank.

— When the IMF calculates its rankings in US dollar terms, it uses two data points: One, a country’s GDP in the local currency and two, the exchange rate with dollar to arrive at a dollar figure. On both these counts, India has suffered significant setbacks in the last twelve months.

— Firstly, India updated its GDP estimates with a new base in February-end. The new GDP estimates essentially showed that the previous GDP series was overestimating India’s GDP. In rupee terms, India’s GDP for 2025-26 was rolled back from Rs 357 trillion (or lakh crore) to Rs 345 trillion.

— The second thing that changed is the rupee-dollar exchange rate. The Indian rupee has rapidly lost its value relative to the US dollar over the past year. What’s worse, this fall in the exchange rate has happened when the dollar itself has lost value against other currencies such as the British pound and the Japanese yen.

— India’s GDP for 2025, for instance, fell from being $4.1 trillion (according to the earlier GDP estimates) to $3.9 trillion according to the new ones. That in itself allowed Japan to overtake India; and this has happened despite the fact that Japan’s GDP in 2026 ($4.38 trillion) is lower than what it was in 2022 ($4.45 trillion).

— As such, according to the IMF’s projections, notwithstanding the setback in 2026, India will retake the position of the 4th-largest economy in 2027 although overtaking Germany to become the third-largest economy is expected to happen in 2031.

Do You Know:

— In February, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released a new series of national income accounts, shifting the base from 2011-12 to 2022-23. The last time the GDP series was revised was in early 2015.

— The GDP is the central metric to assess the annual economic growth or the overall size of an economy and the so-called “base year” refers to the year that works as a starting point for calculations. The base year for GDP calculation is now 2022-23.

— In other words, the GDP in 2022-23 is used as a “base” over which the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of any following year is calculated. This is the eighth such revision.

— In a major move, the new GDP series does not use the single-deflator method at all and instead uses double-deflation, adjusting input and outputs by their respective inflation rates – with deflators also being used at a more granular level. This allows for more accurate measurement of real GDP growth.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍GDP: Why India is now further away from becoming a $5 trillion economy

📍Knowledge Nugget: New series of GDP estimates with base year 2022-23 released. What you need to know for UPSC exam

UPSC Prelims Practice Question Covering similar theme:

(3) Consider the following statements:

1. The new base year for the GDP series is 2023-24.

2. The GDP series is released by the RBI.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

(a) 1 only

(b) 2 only

(c) Both 1 and 2

(d) Neither 1 nor 2

Previous year UPSC Mains Question Covering similar theme:

Define potential GDP and explain its determinants. What are the factors that have been inhibiting India from realizing its potential GDP? (UPSC CSE 2020)

How political goals, tussles led to 1969 bank nationalisation

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies-II: Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilisation, of resources, growth, development and employment.

What’s the ongoing story: The nationalisation of banks in India is widely regarded as the single most consequential economic decision taken by any government since Independence in 1947. Its impact —political, social and economic — was so far-reaching that even the sweeping economic reforms of 1991 are often considered less transformative in comparison.

Key Points to Ponder:

— What do you understand by nationalisation of banks?

— How are banks governed in India?

— What are the different types of banks in India?

— What are the Constitutional articles embracing the socialist framework?

— How is the Indian concept of socialism different from the Western concept?

— Know about the history of the RBI

— What are the role and responsibilities of the RBI?

Key Takeaways:

— This landmark decision was spearheaded by Indira Gandhi, who, while serving as both Prime Minister and Finance Minister, nationalised 14 of the country’s largest private banks on July 19, 1969.

— The decision was rooted in the government’s commitment to a socialist framework, aiming to align the financial system with broader developmental and social goals. Notably, the process of state intervention in banking had begun earlier, with the nationalisation of the State Bank of India in 1955.

— Until the 1960s, the expansion of branches was largely limited to urban areas, and rural and semi-urban areas continued to go unserved, the History of the RBI notes. As a result, several economic activities in agriculture, as well as small-scale industrial units and the self-employed, did not have proper access to banking facilities.

— This led to the widespread political perception that, left to itself, the private sector was not sufficiently aware of its larger responsibilities towards society. The political class became convinced that privately owned banks needed to be made aware of the credit needs of society.

— Private banks were seen as being excessively concerned with profit alone, making them unwilling to diversify their loan portfolios across different scales of economic operation, as this would raise transaction costs and reduce profits, the volume says.

— The idea of ‘social control’ of banks, as it first emerged in 1967, was the result of a compromise between two extreme viewpoints on banking held by the political class, then mainly represented by the Congress party.

— At the Congress Working Committee meetings in May 1967, economic policy — especially the meaning of “democratic socialism” — was intensely debated. Bank nationalisation emerged as the central issue. The Committee ultimately endorsed increased state participation in banking, insurance, foreign trade, and food distribution.

— According to the History of the RBI, a day before the announcement on July 19, she informed IG Patel, Secretary for Economic Affairs, that she had taken the decision to nationalise banks on “political” considerations and that he should prepare a speech within the next 72 hours. Patel is said to have offered two suggestions to Gandhi: first, that foreign banks should not be nationalised; and second, that there was no need to nationalise all banks, and it would be better if only the major banks, which accounted for 85–90 per cent of the total banking business, were nationalised, the RBI history says.

— Initially, banks with deposits of Rs 100 crore were listed for nationalisation. It then emerged that some important banks, like Dena Bank, with deposits of Rs 98 crore, would be left out. The limit was thus lowered to Rs 50 crore.

— On July 19, 1969, an Ordinance was promulgated to nationalise 14 major banks with deposits exceeding Rs 50 crore with immediate effect. The Ordinance was signed by the Vice President, VV Giri, who was then also the acting President, with President Zakir Hussain having died a few months earlier.

— On July 27, the Sarvodaya Leader Jayaprakash Narayan described the takeover of banks as “wrong and unwarranted”, while addressing a public meeting in Rajkot. He said the step would not solve the economic ills of the country but would only enhance the power of those in power and the bureaucracy, the book says.

Do You Know:

— The RBI was set up on the basis of the recommendations of the Royal Commission on Indian Currency (Hilton Young Commission) which was set up in 1926. It recommended establishing a central bank to be called the ‘Reserve Bank of India’.

— RBI is tasked with regulating the issue of banknotes, maintaining reserves with a view to securing monetary stability and to operate the credit and currency system of the country to its advantage.

— The first Governor of the RBI was the Australian Sir Osborne Arkell Smith, one of the two managing governors of the Imperial Bank of India. Sir C D Deshmukh was the first Indian to become Governor.

— The Central Office of the Reserve Bank was initially established in Kolkata but was permanently moved to Mumbai in 1937. The Central Office is where the Governor sits and where policies are formulated.

— RBI was nationalised from 1st January, 1949 on the basis of the Reserve Bank of India (Transfer to Public Ownership) Act, 1948. All shares in the capital of the Bank were deemed transferred to the Central Government on payment of a suitable compensation.

— The affairs of the RBI is governed by the Central Board of Directors consisting of the Governor and not more than four Deputy Governors. Non-official directors nominated by the government consist of ten Directors from various fields and two government officials along with four Directors – one each from four local boards.

— RBI performs several functions from maintaining price stability, issuing currency to banker to the government and banks. One of the significant functions which becomes important in the current times is the management of the forex reserve. It manages the Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999 to facilitate external trade and payment and promote orderly development and maintenance of the foreign exchange market in India.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Knowledge Nugget | RBI Foundation Day Special: History, new initiatives, and rupee stabilisation

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:

(4) Which of the following are the sources of income for the Reserve Bank of India? (UPSC CSE 2025)

I. Buying and selling Government bonds

II. Buying and selling foreign currency

III. Pension fund management

IV. Lending to private companies

V. Printing and distributing currency notes

Select the correct answer using the code given below.

(a) I and II only

(b) II, III and IV

(c) I, III, IV and V

(d) I , II and V

 

THE IDEAS PAGE

Worker discontent calls for a rethink on fair pay

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance

Mains Examination: General Studies-II: Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors and issues arising out of their design and implementation.

What’s the ongoing story: Anamitra Roychowdhury writes: ON APRIL13, thousands of workers spontaneously took to the streets at different places in Noida and continued their protest the following day. This, unfortunately, descended into violence, leading to multiple arrests.

Key Points to Ponder:

— What is minimum wage?

— What are the four new labour codes?

— What were the reasons for the recent protest?

— What are the constitutional provisions for decent wages?

— What are the provisions of Article 43 of the Directive Principles of State Policy (DPSP)?

— What is the difference between minimum wage and living wage?

— Is labour a State List or Concurrent List?

— How is inflation calculated in the economy?

— Why is it necessary to adjust the wages as per the inflation?

— What is the National Floor wage?

Key Takeaways:

— The immediate trigger appears to be the hike in minimum wages (MW) in Haryana on April 9, along with strong inflationary pressure due to the war in West Asia (particularly the sharp rise in LPG cylinder prices, an essential component of the subsistence basket, in the black market). Nonetheless, there may be structural reasons behind such unrest.

— In this context, it is instructive to focus on the key demand of workers, namely, inadequacy in MW revision. Now, MW comprises two components: Basic pay and dearness allowance (normally revised twice a year based on CPI-IW to adjust for price rise).

— While inflation updates happened regularly before the current round of increase, the basic component was last revised in Haryana in 2015 and in 2014 in UP. Even though it is stipulated to raise the basic component every five years, this was not done.

— Additionally, CPI measuring average inflation often falls short of capturing price rise in certain essential segments like housing, healthcare and education. Indeed, calculations show falling real wages between 2021 and 2026, in Noida and Faridabad — the epicentres of protest.

— The shortcomings in setting MW are evident from the accounts of various workers, many of whom complain about rent frequently consuming one-third to half of their monthly income.

— However, for MW calculation, the house rent component is arrived at by considering only 10 per cent of expenditure on food and clothing. Therefore, estimation of MW suffers from a fundamental lacuna — severely underestimating the cost of shelter, particularly in the vicinity of metro cities.

— It also shows the necessity of arriving at National Floor Wage (NFW) based on objective criteria — which is currently missing — since state governments are bound to set their MWs above NFW.

— Interestingly, state governments have implicitly accepted this fact and the wages of unskilled workers in Haryana were raised by 35 per cent, immediately after the protest, followed by a 21 per cent hike in UP.

— The question that arises is what steps are needed to avoid such incidents in future. First and foremost, the Noida protests should not be seen in isolation. Before Noida, there was labour unrest in Barauni (Bihar), Surat (Gujarat), and Manesar, Panipat (Haryana). In all these places, workers were demanding higher wages, improved overtime pay and better working conditions.

— Second, it is crucial to understand that there is no substitute to sustained tripartite dialogue between the government, employers and workers to maintain industrial peace. Otherwise, discontent is likely to spill over to the streets.

— Finally, stable industrial relations are beneficial from the point of view of business as well, since industrial growth and investments flourish in such an environment rather than under industrial unrest.

Do You Know:

— Effective November 21, 2025, the four labour codes — Code on Wages, Code on Social Security, Industrial Relations Code, and Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions (OSH) Code — seek to ease regulations and compliance norms for employers, and ensure uniformity in wage structure and social security protection for workers.

— However, the draft rules were issued by the Centre in December 2025 and final rules are yet to be notified. Unlike the earlier Factories Act, 1948, which specifically provided for the daily and weekly working hours, and ‘spread-over’ hours — the total working hours of an employee inclusive of rest breaks — the new Labour Codes define a workday of eight hours and a weekly working limit of 48 hours, which is in line with International Labour Organization norms.

— In its draft rules issued in December, the Union government had stated that it would separately notify the period of work in each day, with intervals and spread overs, from time to time.

— This was intended to provide flexibility to employers who, for instance, may want to give a three-day weekly holiday to their employees with a 12-hour shift for four working days.

— But this has resulted in confusion among employers as well as employees, often resulting in more work in the name of flexibility, experts said.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Rising costs, stagnating wages: Why workers are protesting in India

📍Why did workers hit the streets, others joined them? Wages big trigger, but not only one

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:

(5) In India, which one of the following compiles information on industrial disputes, closures, retrenchments and lay-offs in factories employing workers? (UPSC CSE 2022)

(a) Central Statistics Office

(b) Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade

(c) Labour Bureau

(d) National Technical Manpower Information System

Previous year UPSC Mains Question Covering similar theme:

Discuss the merits and demerits of the four ‘Labour Codes’ in the context of labour market reforms in India. What has been the progress so far in this regard? (UPSC CSE 2024)

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China is the real winner in the Iran conflict	Manoj Pant writes: What ended the war was not diplomacy, but economics. Two decisions mattered: The cessation of US bombardment and, above all, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The markets delivered their verdict instantly. Oil prices fell to around $96 per barrel by April 10. Global equities rebounded. The apocalypse was postponed — not by statesmen, but by price signals. So who won? Not Donald Trump. His brinkmanship has likely backfired, leaving him and the Republican Party staring at a potential electoral drubbing in November. Democrats can barely believe their luck. As domestic inflation breaches 3 per cent, dissatisfaction is at its peak in terms of electoral disapproval. Not Iran. Its defiance may earn it rhetorical glory but the reality is harsher. Its military is battered, its infrastructure degraded, and the reconstruction bill will run into billions. No — the real winner is China.

 

PRELIMS ANSWER KEY

1. (c)  2. (d)  3. (d)   4. (d)  5. (c)

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