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UPSC Key: West Asia crisis reminder for self-reliance, Black rain in Tehran, and Passive euthanasia

How is knowing the framework behind SC’s euthanasia verdict relevant to the UPSC exam? What significance do topics such as the unemployment data, Iran-Arab ties, and Creamy layer hold for both the Preliminary and Mains examinations? You can learn more by reading the Indian Express UPSC Key for March 12, 2026.

UPSC Key: West Asia crisis reminder for self-reliance, Black rain in Tehran, and Passive euthanasiaPrime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the gathering during the Golden Jubilee Sammelan, in Kochi. Know more in our UPSC Key. (PTI Photo)

Important topics and their relevance in UPSC CSE exam for March 12, 2026. If you missed the March 11, 2026, UPSC CSE exam key from the Indian Express, read it here.

FRONT

West Asia crisis a reminder for self-reliance, energy growth: PM

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies-I, II, III: Geography, Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilisation of resources, growth, development.

What’s the ongoing story: Calling the war in West Asia “a matter of concern for all”, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Wednesday that “the expansion of the petroleum sector is essential” and “the current crisis has once again established” how important it is “for us to become atmanirbhar (self-reliant)”.

Key Points to Ponder:

— US-Israel attack on Iran: Know about it in detail.

— Read about the status of India’s relations with the US, Israel and Iran.

— How do tensions in West Asia affect global energy security?

— What is the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz?

— How is it affecting India?

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— Know the portfolio of India’s crude oil, LPG and LNG imports.

— What diplomatic challenges can India face in balancing its ties with Israel, the US and Iran?

— What are the efforts taken by the government for energy security amidst conflict in west Asia?

— What role does the Essential Commodities Act play in ensuring the availability of essential fuels in India?

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— Map work: Locate Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Israel, and other places in the news related to the US-Israel attack on Iran on the map.

Key Takeaways:

— Speaking on the crisis in West Asia and recalling the rescue of nurses trapped in Iraq, and priests Tom Uzhunnalil in Yemen and Alexis Premkumar in Afghanistan, Modi said, “Millions of our brothers and sisters work there. You must remember that today there is a BJP-NDA government in the country. Whenever Indian citizens have been in trouble, we have used all our strength to rescue them safely.”

— He said governments of all friendly countries are also taking care of Indians. “Our embassies and missions are working round the clock to help our people. Whether someone needs food, medical help, a place to stay, or legal assistance – all these needs are being ensured,’’ he said.

— The war, he said, has once again sent a reminder on the importance of self-reliance. He said India is striving to become self-reliant in every field including energy. On the energy sector, Modi said India has increased its solar power capacity, and given emphasis to electric vehicles to reduce dependence on fuel. 

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From the Front Page- Strait of Hormuz shut, India’s Russian oil imports surge by 50%

— With crude oil supplies from West Asia halted due to the severe disruption in vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, India’s Russian oil imports have surged in the first 11 days of March, according to trade sources and tanker data.

— Before the West Asia conflict began on February 28, Delhi’s oil imports from Moscow were expected to be around 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1 million bpd. With the conflict, now in its twelfth day, effectively suspending maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, India’s Russian oil imports have jumped to 1.5 million bpd in the first 11 days of the month, according to ship tracking data from commodity market analytics firm Kpler.

These volumes could rise further if regular West Asian oil volumes through the Strait are not reinstated soon. Around 2.5-2.7 million bpd of India’s crude imports, accounting for around half of the country’s total oil imports, have transited the Strait of Hormuz in recent months; the longer-term average is around 40%. This oil is mainly from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait.

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— Vessel tracking data also indicates that a substantial number of Russian crude cargoes are currently on the waters, particularly moving across the Indian Ocean region toward Indian ports. Around 130 million barrels of Russian crude was estimated to be on ships on water as of early March. This stockpile included significant volumes across the Indian Ocean, Red Sea and Suez Canal routes, and around Singapore, which could potentially be redirected towards Indian ports.

— In recent months, India had cut down significantly on its oil imports from Russia amid trade negotiations with the US, as Washington made it a pre-requisite for scrapping its 25% additional penal tariff on Delhi. India is the world’s third-largest consumer of crude oil and depends on imports to meet over 88% of its oil requirement.

— But with the Strait of Hormuz closed, Washington is now more than happy with India consuming more Russian crude, even from sanctioned entities and tankers. Last week, the US issued a temporary 30-day “waiver” to allow Indian refiners to buy Russian crude that is already sitting in tankers on water. 

— Last week, government sources had indicated that India had six-eight weeks of crude and fuel stocks, which would be replenished on an ongoing basis with supplies from other regions being increased. As refineries continue to process crude, produce fuels, and get more oil from regions other than West Asia, these stocks will keep shifting, and the effective coverage would be extended, they had said.

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From the Nation Page- Deplorable: India after ship bound for Kandla attacked

— With an India-bound ship coming under attack from suspected Iranian fighters, New Delhi issued the first direct criticism of Tehran on Wednesday as it “deplored” that commercial shipping is being made a target of military attacks.

— While Prime Minister Narendra Modi had earlier condemned the strikes by Iran on Arab countries in West Asia during his conversations with leaders of those countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, this is the first time that the Indian government has slammed the Iranians for targeting Indian seafarers who are on board the commercial ship.

— The Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree dry bulk vessel was struck by “two projectiles of unknown origin” while sailing through the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman on Wednesday, causing a fire and damaging the engine room, the ship’s Thai-listed operator Precious Shipping said in a statement.

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— India has about one crore citizens living in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and their safety remains a priority, he said.

— About 9,000 Indian nationals are currently in Iran, with the Indian mission maintaining close contact with the community. Indian students and pilgrims have been relocated to safer cities outside Tehran, and assistance is being provided for land border crossings into Armenia and Azerbaijan so that they can take commercial flights back to India.

Do You Know:

— The Strait of Hormuz—the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea—handles approximately one-fifth of global liquid petroleum consumption and global liquefied natural gas trade.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Ripple effects across sectors: From textiles to mining and steel making

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📍Knowledge Nugget | US-Israel war on Iran: 10 must-know tidbits for UPSC Exam

📍UPSC Issue at a Glance | How did the Israel-Iran conflict escalate? A look from history to its impact

UPSC Prelims Practice Question Covering similar theme:

(1) Which of the statements about the Strait of Hormuz is not correct?

(a) It is a critical region for international oil and gas supplies.

(b) It is a narrow waterway between Bahrain and Qatar.

(c) It connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

(d) Disruption of shipping in this strait can significantly affect global energy prices.

In a first, SC allows passive euthanasia for man in vegetative state for 13 years

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies-II: Issues relating to development and management of Social Sector/Services relating to Health, Education, Human Resources.

What’s the ongoing story: In a historic first in India, the Supreme Court on Wednesday permitted the withdrawal of artificial life support to Harish Rana, a 32-year-old who has been in a vegetative state for almost 13 years now. The court also urged the Centre to bring a comprehensive law to address passive euthanasia.

Key Points to Ponder:

— What is euthanasia?

— How euthanasia is different from assisted dying?

— What is living will?

— What is passive euthanasia?

— What’s the difference between active and passive euthanasia?

— Is the right to die with dignity, a fundamental right?

— What is the procedure for passive euthanasia in India?

— What are the ethical issues concerning euthanasia?

Key Takeaways:

— In two concurring judgments, a bench of Justices J B Pardiwala and K V Viswanathan said: “In the facts and circumstances of the present case, we record our satisfaction that the twin legal requirements for the withdrawal and withholding of medical treatment have been unequivocally met. First, it is established that the Clinically Assisted Nutrition and Hydration (CANH) currently being administered to the applicant … constitutes medical treatment. Secondly, it has been conclusively determined that the continued administration of the same is no longer in the best interests of the applicant.”

— “In light of the unanimous consensus arrived at by the parents/ next of kin and the constituted medical boards respectively, we are of the opinion that the medical treatment ought not to be prolonged any further,” it said, directing that “the medical treatment, including CANH being administered to the applicant, shall be withdrawn and/ or withheld.”

— Citing the “peculiar facts and circumstances of the present matter”, the court “waived the reconsideration period of 30 days… as all stakeholders are unanimous in their opinion that the medical treatment… should be withdrawn and/ or withheld”.

— Reconsideration period refers to the period between the date of decision by medical experts to withdraw life support and date of implementing it, so as to enable a person aggrieved by the decision to approach a court of law.

— The bench asked AIIMS Delhi to admit Rana to its palliative care department “so that the withdrawal and/ or withholding of” his “medical treatment, including CANH, can be given effect to. For this purpose… AIIMS shall provide all necessary facilities for shifting him from his residence to the said palliative care department.”

— “AIIMS shall ensure that such withdrawal and or withholding is carried out through a robust, palliative, and end-of-life care plan which is specifically tailored to manage symptoms without causing any discomfort to the applicant and ensuring that his dignity is preserved to the highest degree,” the bench said.

— Noting the absence of a comprehensive legislation to address end-of-life care, the bench urged the Centre to enact a law in this regard. Due to absence of such a law, “end-of-life decisions stand imperilled by the possibility that considerations wholly extraneous to medical science or the patient’s autonomy, most notably financial distress, lack of insurance coverage, or socio-economic vulnerability, may imperceptibly shape outcomes,” said Justice Pardiwala.

— The judgement came on a plea by Rana’s family, seeking permission to withdraw medical support in terms of the SC’s five-judge bench ruling in 2018 (Common Cause vs Union of India), recognising the legality of “passive euthanasia” for terminally-ill patients.

— The 2018 ruling laid down detailed guidelines for passive euthanasia, both in cases where the patient left an “advance directive” or “living will” stating that life support should be withdrawn if they slipped into terminal illness, and where no such directive was left behind.

— In January 2023, another five-judge bench modified the 2018 order to make the process of withdrawal of treatment for terminally ill patients less stringent and more workable. The changes included introducing timelines for each board to make its decision and limiting the role of the judicial magistrate in the process.

From the Explained page- The framework behind SC’s euthanasia verdict

— Assisted dying involves intentionally causing death through the administration of a lethal injection.

— In India, this directly attracts criminal liability and may amount to culpable homicide under the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita. When a doctor assists the patient in performing the act, criminal liability arises for abetment to suicide. Attempted suicide continues to be an offence, even though the Supreme Court has repeatedly observed that a person attempting suicide requires care, not punishment.

— Withdrawing or withholding life-sustaining treatment is treated differently because it involves stopping or not initiating medical intervention and allowing the underlying illness or injury to take its course. This distinction flows from Article 21, the “right to life”, which the Supreme Court has interpreted to include the right to live with dignity.

— For terminally ill or persistently vegetative patients whose life is “ebbing out”, the court has held that the Constitution protects the choice not to be kept alive through invasive or futile medical intervention.

— The Supreme Court’s order allowing the withdrawal of Rana’s treatment is the first application of its passive euthanasia framework, shaped largely by rulings on end-of-life decisions rather than law.

— The judicial position was set out in Aruna Ramchandra Shanbaug v. Union of India (2011). The court reaffirmed its earlier decision in Gian Kaur v. State of Punjab (1996) that Article 21 does not include a general “right to die”. Assisted dying remained outside constitutional protection.

— At the same time, the Bench recognised that the right to live with dignity may, in limited circumstances, include a dignified death.

— The court observed that a premature end to life for a patient in a terminal condition or persistent vegetative state “may fall within the ambit of the ‘right to die’ with dignity as a part of right to live with dignity, when death due to termination of natural life is certain and imminent and the process of natural death has commenced”.

— It drew a distinction. Assisted dying — actively causing death — remained illegal. But withdrawing or withholding life-sustaining treatment could be permitted. 

From the Explained Page- With drawing life-supporting care: The procedure and the hurdles

— Active euthanasia is a process in which a physician may prescribe a lethal drug or injection to relieve the suffering of a person with no hope of recovery. It is legal in countries such as the US, Canada, Australia, and parts of Europe — but not in India.

— Passive euthanasia means allowing a person to die naturally by withholding life-sustaining treatment. Patients or their families can refuse treatments such as cardio-pulmonary resuscitation, ventilator support, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, dialysis or specialised nutrition.

— What has made the process easier is knowing the patient’s wishes through a living will. These directives allow terminal patients to create a legal document choosing the measures that they would like or would not like to have done to them when they no longer have the capacity to decide.

— It allows them to choose the type of care they would like to receive, the gender they would like to be addressed as, and it allows a patient to nominate a person to take their medical decisions, which could be someone other than their family.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Knowledge Nugget of the day: Euthanasia

UPSC Prelims Practice Question Covering similar theme:

(2) Consider the following statements:

1. In India, active euthanasia was legalised in India in 2018.

2. The Supreme Court provided for the living wills in case of euthanasia for a person of age 21 years or older.

Which of the above-mentioned statements is/are correct?

(a) 1 only

(b) 2 only

(c) Both 1 and 2

(d) Neither 1 nor 2

 

POLITICS

Can’t decide creamy layer solely on basis of income: SC

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Indian Polity and Governance-Constitution, Political System, Panchayati Raj, Public Policy, Rights Issues, etc.

Mains Examination: General Studies-II: Constitution, Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors and issues arising out of their design and implementation.

What’s the ongoing story: Creamy layer status of Other Backward Classes (OBCs) cannot be decided solely based on parental income and treating similarly placed employees of private entities and Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) differently from government employees, for deciding whether their wards are entitled to reservation, would amount to hostile discrimination, the Supreme Court ruled on Wednesday.

Key Points to Ponder:

— Who are the Other Backward Classes (OBCs)?

— What are the constitutional provisions related to the OBCs?

— Know the article 14, 15 and 16 of Constitution of India.

— Read about the Mandal Commission, its recommendations and landmark verdict in Indra Sawhney vs Union of India (1992).

— What is the concept of ‘creamy layer’?

— Why is there a need to ensure “equivalence” in the application of the ‘creamy layer’ condition in reservations for OBCs across a range of jobs?

— Read about the National Commission for Backward Classes.

Key Takeaways:

— A bench of Justices P S Narasimha and R Mahadevan said this while affirming the judgments of High Courts of Madras, Kerala, and Delhi which were dealing with the eligibility of candidates claiming OBC (Non-Creamy Layer) benefit for Civil Services Examinations.

— Some of the HC orders allowed the claims of candidates who contended they were wrongly categorised as falling in the creamy layer on account of the income of their parents who were employed in PSUs, banks or the private sector.

— The dispute centred around the September 8, 1993 Office Memorandum (OM) issued by the Government of India, specifying who shall be creamy layer among OBCs and the clarificatory letter issued in this regard on October 14, 2004.

— The court noted that while the OM excluded income from salary and agricultural income from the Income/ wealth test for determination of creamy layer status, the letter dated October 14, 2004 directed inclusion of salary income of PSU and private sector employees and this resulted in hostile discrimination between the wards of government servants and those of PSU/private sector employees.

— The SC said, “It is… evident from a comprehensive reading of the 1993 OM along with the clarificatory letter dated 14.10.2004 that income from salaries alone cannot be the sole criterion to decide whether a candidate falls within the creamy layer. The status as well as the category of post to which a candidate’s parent or parents belong is essential… Mere determination of the status of a candidate as to whether he/she falls within the creamy or the non-creamy layer of the OBCs cannot be decided solely on the basis of the income.”

—- It said, “Thus, determination of creamy layer status solely on the basis of income brackets, without reference to the categories of posts and status parameters enunciated in the 1993 OM is clearly unsustainable in law.”

— The bench said, “Treating the children of those employed in PSUs or private employment etc., as being excluded from the benefit of reservation only on the basis of their income derived from salaries, and without reference to their posts (whether Groups A, B, C or D) would certainly lead to hostile discrimination between parties who are similarly placed and would amount to equals being treated unequally, thereby attracting the rigour of the equality doctrine under Articles 14, 15 and 16, of which reservation is a facet.”

— It said that “the object of excluding the creamy layer is to ensure that socially advanced sections within the OBCs do not appropriate benefits meant for the genuinely backward; it is not to create artificial distinctions between equally placed members of the same social class.”

Do You Know:

— National Commission for Backward Classes (NCBC) was initially constituted by the Central Govt by the National Commission for Backward Classes Act, of 1993. The act has been repealed through the National Commission for Backward Classes (Repeal) Act, 2018.

— The NCBC has been accorded Constitutional Status through “The Constitution (One Hundred and Second Amendment) Act, 2018, whereby Article 338-B has been inserted, forming a Commission for the socially and educationally backward classes to be known as National Commission for Backward Classes. 

— The Commission consists of a Chairperson, Vice-Chairperson and three other Members in the rank and pay of Secretary to the Govt of India and their condition of service and tenure of office has been notified vide Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment.

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:

(3) Consider the following organizations/bodies in India: (UPSC CSE 2023)

1. The National Commission for Backward Classes

2. The National Human Rights Commission

3. The National Law Commission

4. The National Consumer Disputes Redressal Commission

How many of the above constitutional bodies?

(a) Only one

(b) Only two

(c) Only three

(d) All four

 

EXPLAINED 

How airstrikes triggered black rain in Tehran

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of international importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies-II, III: Environmental pollution and degradation, Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.

What’s the ongoing story: When Tehran residents stepped outside on Sunday morning, something was very wrong with the rain. It wasn’t the usual grey drizzle. It was black — oily, soot-laden droplets coating cars, clothes, and skin, falling dozens of miles from the source of the disaster. This was “black rain” in Iran and it has become one of the war’s most alarming consequences.

Key Points to Ponder:

— What is ‘black rain’? What led to its formation in Iran?

— What is acid rain?

— What are the health and environmental impacts of black rain?

— How can armed conflicts trigger environmental disasters? 

— What are ‘forever chemicals’?

— How can geography influence the severity of air pollution?

— What measures can be taken to protect public health during severe air pollution events triggered by conflicts?

Key Takeaways:

— On the night of March 7-8, Israeli strikes hit four oil storage facilities and an oil production transfer centre in Tehran and the province of Alborz, igniting large fires that burned for hours.

The targeted sites included the Aghdasieh oil warehouse in northeast Tehran, the Shahran oil depot, and the Tehran refinery in the south.

— The Iranian Red Crescent was quoted by The Times of Israel as saying that the explosions released significant quantities of toxic hydrocarbon compounds, sulfur, and nitrogen oxides into the air. As rain moved through the pollutant-saturated skies over the city, it absorbed these chemicals — and fell back down as oily, blackened precipitation.

— Scientists explained that the black rain resulted from a weather pattern bringing rain into the area, which combined with particles already suspended in the atmosphere.

— On Tuesday, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned that black rain and acidic rain falling over Tehran pose a real danger to the population, primarily to respiratory health, and backed Iran’s advisory urging people to remain indoors.

— The strikes, WHO spokesperson Christian Lindmeier stated, caused a massive release of toxic hydrocarbons, sulfur oxides, and nitrogen compounds into the air. Scientists said inhaling or touching the smoke or particles could cause headaches, skin and eye irritation, and difficulty breathing — and that longer-term exposure to some compounds increases cancer risk. Lindmeier stated that the “black rain” and “acidic rain” in Tehran “is indeed a danger” for Iranians.

— The Iranian Red Crescent warned that the rain could cause serious lung damage and chemical burns to the skin, reported CBC News.  Tehran was already vulnerable before the first strike landed. Doug Weir, director of the UK-based Conflict and Environment Observatory, told CBC News that the city is surrounded by mountains, meaning pollutants are pushed downward and inward. Combined with its dense urban layout, air doesn’t circulate as it ideally should.

— The ‘black rain’ crisis may outlast the fires. Scientists warned that “forever chemicals” — likely present in flame retardants built into the facilities — could contaminate groundwater and become airborne, ending up back in the rain. Acid rain, depending on concentration, could also accelerate corrosion of buildings already weakened by Tehran’s chronic air quality problems.

— The Conflict and Environment Observatory in its latest report has tracked over 232 incidents with environmental risk since the conflict began, and warned of contamination of vegetation that could expose humans and animals to toxic compounds through the food chain.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Black rain over Iran: Amid bombing by US forces, a public health crisis may be looming

UPSC Prelims Practice Question Covering similar theme:

(4) Consider the following statements regarding the ‘black rain’ phenomenon:

1. It is primarily caused by volcanic eruptions.

2. It occurs when rainwater absorbs pollutants and particles present in the atmosphere.

3. It may contain toxic compounds such as hydrocarbons, sulfur oxides, and nitrogen oxides.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

(a) 1 only

(b) 1 and 2 only

(c) 2 and 3 only

(d) 1, 2 and 3

Iran-Arab ties: Tehran’s survival could lead to a new geopolitical contract

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies-II: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.

What’s the ongoing story: The US-Israeli war on Iran has entered its 11th day. Tehran has continued its barrage of drones and missiles aimed at US bases across all Gulf states which are being used for continued US-Israeli strikes on Iran. 

Key Points to Ponder:

— What was the Yom Kippur War?

— How could the US–Israel–Iran conflict affect relations between Iran and the Arab Gulf states?

— What is the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz?

— How is US military presence in the Gulf region impacting regional geopolitics?

— Read about Hezbollah. 

— What is the strategic importance of West Asia for India’s imports of energy, fertilisers and critical industrial raw materials?

— What is India’s Middle East policy?

Map work: Locate Arab countries on map.

Key Takeaways:

— On Saturday (March 7), Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologised to Arab states for the damage incurred and reiterated that Tehran had “no intention of aggression against them”, as Iran has consistently maintained. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) reiterated this, with a commitment to respecting Arab sovereignty.

— Both messages were meant to reinforce two objectives: that Iran would continue targeting these bases if they sustained attacks against Iran, and that Tehran would stop these retaliatory attacks (which are “regretfully” hurting Arab states) if the US ceased their use in this war.

— Iran retaliated by reciprocally hitting a desalination plant in Bahrain (from where the US Fifth Fleet continues operations against Iran). Considering these developments, what effects have they had on Iran-Arab relations? 

— First-order effects: All Arab states continue to seek conflict termination. A major indicator is that Gulf states, except Bahrain, have not joined the US-Israeli action against Iran so far, despite unprecedented and historic political and economic costs.

— Iran’s attacks have forced Gulf energy giants such as QatarEnergy, Bahrain’s BAPCO, and Kuwait Petroleum Company to declare force majeure (a serious, unexpected event exempting fulfilment of contract), while Saudi Aramco has partially halted operations. This now risks oil being potentially set at $150 per barrel (according to official Qatari estimates) and makes it an exponentially worse crisis than even the 1973 OPEC embargo; even in 1973, the Gulf choice to drive up prices was deliberate due to the Yom Kippur War against Israel.

— Insurance rates have skyrocketed owing to Iran’s threat to attack US-Israeli shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, grounding Gulf energy shipping to an unprecedented halt.

— Broadly, the war has ruptured Arab trust in Washington; a microcosm of which the Israeli attack on Doha in 2025 represented. Washington ordering an unprecedented mass evacuation of Americans from the Gulf, and partially or completely shuttering most regional embassies has reinforced this.

— Second-order effects: Militarily, Arab states now face a Tehran that can establish regional dominance through punishment despite American security presence, even as Tehran says it attacks because of US presence. Saudi Arabia, for instance, has long been acutely cognisant of overreliance of US equipment, weak indigenous capabilities, and lack of combat experience, which has spurred Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to focus on building a new domestic military industry ecosystem.

— Regionally, the US’s war has disrupted stability in several states. For instance, while Iraq (which engages both Washington and Tehran) made significant progress towards political cohesion in 2025, the US’ war has triggered pro-Iran demonstrations and worsened Iraqi outlook towards Washington.

— Iran’s potential regional dominance: Iran continues to prioritise friendly ties with “brotherly” Arab states. Tehran’s 2026 reassurances — that its attacks are strictly responses to attacks from US bases in Gulf states — are similar to its apologetic reassertions of fraternal ties to Qatar in 2025. So, Iran also seeks to prevent drawing other Arab security arrangements, such as the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement.

— But for Arab states, the concerns are larger. Ideally, they prefer continuing their post-2019 rationale of prioritising reconciliation, which led to agreements such as the Riyadh-Tehran rapprochement of 2023. Arab states had bet that this would help preserve regional stability, especially following the unprecedented 2019 Houthi drone strikes on the Abqaiq and Khurais oil installations. Now, this war has featured such strikes on a larger scale. Iran has also successfully highlighted both the cost of Gulf states hosting American bases and relying on Washington for security — and reinforced the Arab need for stronger domestic military capabilities.

— Even if Arab states join in the war drawing wider Iranian retaliation, Tehran’s survival (under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei) and its now-proven ability to absorb military and economic pain and upend Arab economic stability will be the most enduring influence on long-term Iran-Arab relations. Arab states and Tehran will then search for a new geopolitical contract.

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:

(5) What is the importance of developing Chabahar Port by India? (UPSC CSE 2017)

(a) India’s trade with African countries will increase enormously.

(b) India’s relations with oil-producing Arab countries will be strengthened.

(c) India will not depend on Pakistan for access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

(d) Pakistan will facilitate and protect the installation of a gas pipeline between Iraq and India.

 

THE IDEAS PAGE

We need better unemployment data, policy must pivot to jobs

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Economic & Social Development.

Mains Examination: General Studies-III: Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization, of resources, growth, development and employment.

What’s the ongoing story: Pulapre Balakrishnan, Sharad Sule writes- “Seldom does the release of official statistics on the economy receive such attention as did the announcement of a new GDP series on February 27. The data have been interpreted as encouraging for the government. The growth rate for the last full year for which data are available, i.e., 2024-25, has been revised upwards a notch, while the growth rate for the previous year, i.e., 2023-24, has been revised downwards substantially. However, for those promoting the “India growth story” this downward revision changes nothing as India remains the “fastest-growing major economy” in the world.”

Key Points to Ponder:

— Who is ‘employed’ and ‘unemployed’ in economic terms?

— What is the working-age population?

— Know the Terms: Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR), Unemployment Rate (UER), The Employment Rate (ER)

— What are the trends in unemployment in India?

— What are the limitations of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as an indicator of economic well-being?

— What is the ‘double-deflation’ method used in GDP estimation? 

— What is the issue of unemployment in India?

— How is unemployment measured in India?

— What are the various initiatives taken by the government to curb unemployment?

— What are the challenges of these initiatives?

Key Takeaways:

— “As one of us showed in a 1994 article with Kesavan Pushpangadan, the “double-deflation” method of estimating GDP — the principal innovation in the latest estimates — is a powerful approach. Yet, as economists we find the focus on production, which is what GDP captures, out of all proportion. Unemployment should be given as much importance as GDP or inflation in an assessment of the state of the economy.”

— “If we choose to look at the unemployment data, the picture looks far less rosy than that for either of these indicators. For the 10 months before January 2026, the unemployment rate (current weekly status) has averaged 5.2 per cent. In the first year prior to 2014 for which National Sample Survey (NSS) estimates are available, i.e., 2011-12, it was 3.7 per cent. 2011 would be an appropriate benchmark year as the effects of both the global financial crisis of 2008 and the Mukherjee Stimulus, named for the then finance minister, may be expected to have subsided.”

— “What is notable is that the unemployment rate has been higher every year since 2011, even if it has been falling of late. These figures are for the population as a whole. When we focus on youth unemployment, i.e., the unemployed in the cohort 15 to 29 years, the pattern is the same. The youth unemployment rate (usual status) in 2011-12 was 7.7 per cent and in 2023-24 it was 10.2 per cent. The economic policies of the Narendra Modi-led governments have thus far not succeeded in lowering the unemployment rate to the level it had inherited.”

—- “The unemployment rate does not figure commensurately in the official pronouncements on the economy made from time to time. The latest Economic Survey speaks of policies “pushing the growth frontier” and having “tamed and anchored” inflation. The statement on inflation is contestable. While it is true that inflation right now is at its lowest in a decade and a half, what lowered it is open to question.”

— “Econometric investigation reveals no role in this outcome for monetary policy, the RBI’s raison d’être. On the other hand, it reveals a definite role for agricultural prices, notably food, in determining the path of inflation…But what can be asserted is that the Economic Survey does not treat inflation and unemployment equally.”

— “It has presented data on inflation from 2011 onward, serving to draw attention to its decline since but does not afford similar treatment to the data on unemployment. Had the data on the unemployment rate been presented for the same period, the fact that unemployment today is high by historic standards would have become apparent.”

— “Economic policy must now pivot towards jobs. However, even as employment generation is given more attention, a scrutiny of the methodology of measuring unemployment needs to be done. A puzzle presents itself when viewing the time series on the unemployment rate according to the Periodic Labour Force Survey. India’s experience comes across as unique in that the unemployment rate declined during the Covid year of 2020-21 when output contracted by close to 7 per cent. In the United States, for instance, unemployment had surged during the pandemic, though the economy contracted far less. An explanation of the Indian case by the NSSO would help create greater confidence in the unemployment data.”

Do You Know:

The spectrum of unemployment encompasses various types, each offering insights into different facets of the labor market.

Structural Unemployment: Rooted in mismatches between the skills possessed by the workforce and the requirements of available positions, this form of unemployment highlights systemic issues within the labour market.

Cyclical Unemployment: Tied to economic cycles, this type escalates during economic downturns and diminishes during periods of expansion, showcasing the sensitivity of job availability to macroeconomic conditions.

Seasonal Unemployment: Occurring due to predictable fluctuations in demand based on seasons, this type affects various sectors of the economy such as agriculture and tourism, where employment needs vary with the time of year.

Technological Unemployment: Driven by advancements in technology, this form results from automation and innovation leading to a reduced demand for certain manual or routine tasks, potentially displacing workers. It also occurs when people are not able to match up with the technology.

Frictional Unemployment: Arising from the natural transition between jobs, this type reflects the temporary period individuals spend searching for new employment opportunities.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍UPSC Essentials | Society and Social Justice : Unemployment and associated issues (Part 1)

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:

(6) “A category of unemployment arising from the mismatch between the jobs available in the market and the skills of the available workers in the market.” Which type of unemployment is being discussed here? (UPSC CSE 2021)

(a) Cyclical Unemployment

(b) Frictional Unemployment

(c) Structural Unemployment

(d) Disguised Unemployment

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PRELIMS ANSWER KEY
1. (b)  2. (d)  3. (a)   4. (c)    5. (c)  6. (c)

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🚨 Click Here to read the UPSC Essentials magazine for February 2026. Share your views and suggestions in the comment box or at manas.srivastava@indianexpress.com🚨

Roshni Yadav is a Deputy Copy Editor with The Indian Express. She is an alumna of the University of Delhi and Jawaharlal Nehru University, where she pursued her graduation and post-graduation in Political Science. She has over five years of work experience in ed-tech and media. At The Indian Express, she writes for the UPSC section. Her interests lie in national and international affairs, governance, the economy, and social issues. You can contact her via email: roshni.yadav@indianexpress.com. ... Read More

 

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