UPSC Key: LPG Shortage hits, Anavaran-Deforestation Alert System, and Early summer

Key Points to Ponder:

— What are the reasons for the rise in crude oil prices?

— Know about India’s oil import through strait of hormuz

— How does the conflict in West Asia impact the energy security in India?

— What is the significance of strategic oil reserves in such conflicts?

— What is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Programme?

— What is the Essential Commodities Act?

— What is India’s stand in this ongoing war? How is India walking a diplomatic tightrope here?

— What are the constituents of the LPG?

Key Takeaways:

— Refiners and fuel retailers have been asked by the government to prioritise domestic LPG supply to households over commercial users, which has led to some tightness in certain pockets. Further, the Petroleum and Natural Gas Ministry said supplies from imported LPG are being prioritised to essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions.

— The government has also raised the minimum waiting period for booking a LPG cylinder to 25 days from 21 days to avoid hoarding and black marketing. Further, to review the representations for LPG supply to restaurants, hotels and other industries, it has set up a committee of three executive directors of oil marketing companies.

— The government also invoked emergency powers derived from the Essential Commodities Act to direct refiners to maximise LPG production and ensure all supplies to domestic LPG consumers.

— The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, reiterated that there are sufficient stocks of crude oil, petrol, and diesel in the country for the time being, and there is no cause for panic. 

From the Front page: Jaishankar: India wants dialogue, diaspora safety, energy security

— Stating that the unfolding conflict in West Asia has led to “numerous casualties, including at the leadership level in Iran”, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on Monday outlined in the Rajya Sabha three broad messages of the Government: it favours a return to dialogue, views the security of the Indian diaspora as a priority, and considers energy security paramount.

— He said about 10 million Indians live in the region and around 60 per cent of India’s energy imports come from West Asia.

— Highlighting economic ties, he said: “The Gulf is also a major trade partner, accounting for almost USD 200 billion annually. The House is aware that in the last decade there have been significant investments from the region into the Indian economy. Therefore, the serious supply chain disruptions and climate of instability that we perceive are serious issues.”

— Referring to Indian seafarers caught in the conflict, Jaishankar said: “These include attacks on merchant shipping, where Indian nationals often constitute a large proportion of the crews. We have sadly already lost two Indian mariners and one remains missing in such incidents.”

From the Nation page: As LPG shortage hits, Mumbai restaurants rethink menus

— Restaurateurs across Mumbai, from Nariman Point to Dahisar to Mulund, are beginning to tweak menus, shorten cooking processes and consider dropping slow-cooked items as a shortage of commercial LPG cylinders disrupts kitchens. Suppliers have linked the disruption to the conflict in the Middle East.

— India is the world’s second-biggest importer of LPG. It consumed 33.15 million metric tonnes of cooking gas last year. The bulk of India’s LPG demand is met through imports, and over 80 per cent of these volumes come via the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, where vessel movements have effectively come to a halt due to the West Asia conflict.

From the Nation page: A fourth of ceramic units in Gujarat’s Morbi shut down amid fuel shortage

— AS THE Iran conflict entered its 10th day on Monday, a fuel shortage caused by the shutting down of the Strait of Hormuz led to nearly a quarter of the tile industry units halting production.

— There has been a 50 per cent curtailment in the supply of natural gas to the ceramics industry in Gujarat’s Morbi — the epicentre of the sector in India — due to fuel shortages caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz enforced by Iran amid the ongoing war with the United States and Israel.

— This comes in light of the already diminished propane supplies that are said to have caused a shutdown of a number of ceramic units dependent on the fuel, which mainly comes from Qatar and other Gulf nations. The Indian Express first reported on the looming crisis on March 3.

— The Morbi ceramics industry runs on two types of fuel: propane and natural gas. An average of 55 lakh cubic metres of propane per day is consumed in the industry and is used by about 500 units. 

— Propane-LPG is delivered to these units in tankers by road through Indian Oil Corporation Limited, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited, via local traders.

— Morbi is the second-largest tile manufacturing cluster in the world and accounts for about 90 per cent of India’s ceramic manufacturing business. A 2024 report by the Industrial Extension Bureau (iNDEXTb), a Gujarat government arm, pegged exports of ceramic tiles from India at $2.5 billion.

From the Explained page: India puts supply security first amid oil price surge

— The conflict, which began on February 28 and currently doesn’t seem to have an end in sight, has led to growing concerns of an extended supply disruption due to the effective suspension of tanker movements through the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, and major Gulf oil producers cutting oil production as they run out of storage.

— Moreover, intensifying attacks of oil infrastructure in the region over the weekend, and Iran’s appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei—son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—as Iran’s new supreme leader have also contributed to the surge in prices. Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment has signaled continuity in Iran’s leadership; regime change was a key objective of the US-Israel attack on Iran.

— India’s economy is vulnerable to oil price volatility as the country has an oil import dependency level of over 88%. India’s heavy reliance on imported crude oil has a bearing on the country’s current account deficit, foreign exchange reserves, the rupee’s exchange rate, and inflation rate, among others. Notwithstanding all that, the immediate priority is to ensure crude oil and fuel availability on a continuous basis.

— Seen as the most important oil transit chokepoint globally, the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea—handles approximately one-fifth of global liquid petroleum consumption and global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade.

— Given that India imports 1.8-2 billion barrels of crude oil a year, every $1-per-barrel increase in oil prices would bump up the country’s oil import bill by up to $2 billion on an annualised basis. 

— According to a report by Nomura, India is among the three most vulnerable Asian economies to high oil prices in terms of import bill and current account balances, the other two being Thailand and South Korea. It said that every 10% oil price increase typically widens India’s current account deficit by 0.4% of the GDP.

— The ongoing US-Israel strikes on Iran have heightened geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices upward. Considering India’s heavy reliance on imported crude, this could feed through into higher imported inflation by raising fuel costs and weakening the rupee, complicating the inflation outlook for India, the Ministry said.

— While higher oil prices are sure to create a headache for the Indian economy, the current priority is to ensure continued availability of crude oil and fuels in the country. According to sources in the government, Indian refiners are ramping up oil purchases from non-Hormuz regions, which account for 60% of the country’s oil imports.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Why India’s reliance on imported oil may hit fresh full-year high in FY26

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:

(1) In the context of global oil prices, “Brent crude oil” is frequently referred to in the news. What does this term imply? (UPSC CSE 2011)

1. It is a major classification of crude oil.

2. It is sourced from the North Sea.

3. It does not contain sulfur.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

(a) 2 only

(b) 1 and 2 only

(c) 1 and 3 only

(d) 1, 2 and 3 

Previous year UPSC Mains Question Covering similar theme:

“Access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy is the sine qua non to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)”.Comment on the progress made in India in this regard. (UPSC CSE 2018)

Forest Survey of India stops its AI-based fortnightly alerts to states on deforestation

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national importance, Climate Change Environmental Pollution & Degradation. 

Mains Examination: General Studies-II, III: Government policies and interventions, Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation, environmental impact assessment.

What’s the ongoing story: The Forest Survey of India (FSI), the central government organisation that is responsible for the assessment and monitoring of India’s forest wealth, has stopped issuing the fortnightly alerts through which it has kept a watch on deforestation activities in near-real time for more than two years.

Key Points to Ponder:

— What is the Anavaran-Deforestation Alert System?

— Know about the FSI in detail. 

— How are forests defined in India?

— What are Google Earth Engine and Synthetic Aperture Radar?

— What is the role of the FSI in monitoring India’s forest resources?

— How are digital technology and machine learning contributing to the monitoring of deforestation in India?

— What are the advantages and challenges of technology-based forest monitoring systems in India?

— Why forests demand more effective monitoring?

Key Takeaways:

— The data on the FSI’s Anavaran-Deforestation Alert System have not been updated since November 2025.

— The portal, which has been operational since January 2024, has been using satellite data and machine learning to enable FSI to issue location alerts on the loss of forest cover to states every 15 days so that targeted field inspections can be carried out.

— According to multiple sources, active monitoring through the portal was halted this January, and states stopped receiving the fortnightly deforestation alerts.

— Asked why the portal had stalled, FSI joint director Shivani Dogra said Anavaran had been running only as a pilot project, and its utility was currently being assessed. 

— Sources in the Rajasthan Forest Department said the state had not received any deforestation alert after December 2025. 

— While publicly available Anavaran data do not quantify the area of deforestation, records show that Punjab (637), Andhra Pradesh (617) and Arunachal Pradesh (611) accounted for the highest number of deforestation alerts, followed by Nagaland (579), Manipur (577), Uttarakhand (543), Assam (533), Tripura (516), Maharashtra (504), Mizoram (499), Gujarat (498), and Karnataka (450).

— The Anavaran alert system is based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, and uses Sentinel-2 satellite images as input data. For continuous monitoring during cloudy and monsoon seasons, this is further integrated with Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data.

— “We conducted trials in 2023 before starting the portal. Historical data are used to determine the average reference values for any season and any deviation is flagged by the algorithm by comparisons within the same month. That is how unique patches of deforestation are identified from before-and-after images, and then alerts are sent to states with precise coordinates,” a FSI scientist who worked on the portal explained.

— A former FSI official described the portal as “India’s answer” to the early warning system used by Latin American countries.

— Terra-I, which is a remote sensing-based deforestation monitoring system funded by Global Forest Watch, feeds unique 250-metre spatial resolution deforestation alerts. The FSI, by comparison, uses satellite imagery at 10-20-metre spatial resolution — Sentinel 2B (optical), Sentinel 1 (SAR 5m), Sentinel 2 (visible and NIR 10m), RedEdge and SWIR 20m.

— The FSI has been playing a key role in fire monitoring since 2004 when satellite data-based alerts on near-real-time detection of active forest fires started. 

Do you Know:

— Forest Survey of India defines ‘Forest cover’ as all lands, more than or equal to one hectare in area, with a tree canopy of more than or equal to 10 per cent, irrespective of ownership and legal status. The FSI, which publishes the biennial India State of Forests Report (ISFR), primarily uses IRS-R2 (ResourceSat-2) LISS-III (Linear Imaging Self-Scanning Sensor-III) satellite data for mapping. The satellite has a spatial resolution of 23.5 m and cannot capture very fine details. 

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍What are the major challenges faced by India’s forest and vegetation cover?

📍Why forests demand more effective monitoring

 

THE EDITORIAL PAGE

Social media ban may make children less safe online

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies-I, II, III: Effects of globalisation on Indian society, Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors and issues arising out of their design and implementation, Awareness in the fields of IT.

What’s the ongoing story: Meghna Bal and Aaquib Qayoom write- “The Karnataka government’s proposal to ban minors from social media is driven by a familiar concern: Protecting children from excessive screen time and the perceived harms of online platforms. The proposal rests on a flawed assumption — that restricting access will meaningfully reduce children’s engagement with the digital world. However, a survey of 1,000 children across the country aged 10-15 carried out by us indicates that a ban is unlikely to work and may inadvertently make children less safe online.”

Key Points to Ponder:

— What are social media sites?

— Why is social media called a double-edged sword?

— What is the regulatory framework for social media in India?

— How is social media impacting different sections of the society?

— How does it impact the children?

— What are the criticisms related to the social media ban for children?

— What measures should be taken for better regulation of social media?

Key Takeaways:

— “First, children today are more digitally adept than policymakers assume. Around 69 per cent of the children we surveyed had been using digital devices for more than a year, and nearly half reported being comfortable changing settings on their devices and social media accounts. When users possess this level of familiarity with technology, blanket prohibitions rarely work. Instead, they prompt workarounds — from creating alternative accounts to shifting to platforms that are harder to monitor.”

— “Second, children’s social media use in India frequently operates through a “double-proxy” dynamic. Nearly 71 per cent of the children we surveyed reported using a family member’s social media account. Age-gating mechanisms are, therefore, inherently undermined. Even when children create their own profiles, evidence shows that they circumvent age-based restrictions.”

— “Third, the digital world is not only a space of risk for young people — it is also a space of opportunity. Close to 55 per cent of children surveyed reported positive interactions with strangers online. For many young people, digital platforms may provide communities, learning networks, and sources of emotional support. For instance, a study on LGBTQ+ youth in Australia showed that online communities often serve as safe spaces for children.”

— “Of course, openness to interacting with strangers online also increases the risk of exploitation. But banning social media is unlikely to address these threats. If anything, it may drive children to more private, encrypted or poorly moderated platforms. This would reduce the visibility that parents, educators and regulators have over children’s online activity.”

— “In this sense, a social media ban is an abdication of responsibility towards children. The online world is woven into how children, learn, socialise and express themselves. If policymakers are serious about safeguarding children, they must invest in awareness and sensitisation programs such as integrating digital safety education into curricula. Equally important is equipping parents with the knowledge and tools to guide their children’s online behaviour. The task before policymakers is not prohibition, but preparation.”

Do You Know:

— In today’s world, social media has emerged as a powerful force, connecting people on local, national, and international levels like never before due to previous technological advancements. However, it is often referred to as a double-edged sword due to the negative impact it has on multiple fronts

— A report by cybersecurity firm McAfee Corp informs that as many as 85 per cent of children in India have been victims of cyberbullying. Given the lasting emotional harm caused by cyberbullying, coupled with the tender age of its victims, the world of social media becomes an exceptionally challenging turf for parents.

— On the one hand, these platforms offer opportunities to connect with others who share similar identities or who support them. On the other hand, social media platforms also remain active sites of brazen transphobic and homophobic cyberbullying.

— The government of India has taken various initiatives for the effective regulation of social media platforms. Such as,  Information Technology (Intermediary Guidelines and Digital Media Ethics Code) Rules, 2021 (“IT Rules”).

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍UPSC Issue at a Glance | Social Media, the double-edged sword: 4 Key Questions You Must Know for Prelims and Mains

📍Karnataka and Andhra move to ban social media use by children

📍Why social media governance demands balancing free speech with accountability

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:

(2) In India, it is legally mandatory for which of the following to report on cyber security incidents? (UPSC CSE 2017)

1. Service providers

2. Data centres

3. Body corporate

Select the correct answer using the code given below:

(a) 1 only

(b) 1 and 2 only

(c) 3 only

(d) 1, 2 and 3

Previous year UPSC Mains Question Covering similar theme:

What are social networking sites and what security implications do these sites present? (UPSC CSE 2013)

Social media is triggering ‘Fear of Missing Out’ amongst the youth, precipitating depression and loneliness. (UPSC CSE 2024)

 

EXPLAINED 

Behind an early summer is a lack of winter rains

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Geography and General issues on Environmental Ecology, and Climate Change – that do not require subject specialisation.

Mains Examination: General Studies-I, III: Important Geophysical Phenomena, Climate Change Environmental Pollution & Degradation. 

What’s the ongoing story: In several regions of India, particularly in the north and west, the cool winter days of February were suddenly replaced by unusually warm days this month. Temperatures were 8 to 13 degrees Celsius above normal, which can be classified as heat-wave conditions. While a similar situation was witnessed in February three years ago, such an early arrival of heat is rare.

Key Points to Ponder:

— What are heatwaves?

— What is western disturbance?

— What is the role of western disturbances in influencing India’s winter weather?

— What are the impacts of rising temperatures and heatwaves on agriculture in India?

— What are the impacts of changing temperature patterns on the Himalayan regions?

— How can weather forecasting help farmers reduce the impact of climate change?

— What measures should be taken to mitigate the impacts of rising temperatures and heatwaves?

Key Takeaways:

— In its March forecast, the IMD said that day temperatures over western Himalayan regions and peninsular and central India would remain ‘above’ normal. It also warned of ‘above’ normal heatwave days in Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Both scenarios were realised within the very first week of March.

— A state like Himachal Pradesh has already experienced temperatures above 25 degrees Celsius. “The probability of the maximum temperatures over Shimla rising above 25 degrees Celsius is negligible, and definitely not in March. Summer over Shimla peaks in May and early June, but heatwaves are uncommon,” said an IMD official.

— A similar situation prevailed in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh last week. “The temperatures are quite high and will remain for another 2 to 3 days. The incoming western disturbance will bring down these temperatures,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD. 

— Western Disturbances are east-moving rain-bearing wind systems that originate beyond Iran, and pick up moisture from the Mediterranean Sea and other water bodies. They are common in winter months.

— The unusual weather can be partially attributed to a relatively dry winter. February was the third driest since 1901 — a direct effect of the lack of favourable weather systems. All-India rainfall in January and February was just 16 mm, or 60% below normal. Both snowfall and rainfall were subdued.

— This was due to a lack of adequate Western disturbances from November 2025. The wind system had caused the bulk of the winter rains. Additionally, meteorologists observed no wind convergence in the westerly and easterly winds, which bring moisture from the seas to central and north India.

— Dry winters are generally associated with an early onset of hot summer days because a lack of rain hastily heats up the soil. When soil is moist, the onset of summer sees some moisture evaporate first, but with little or no rain, the dry land heats faster, raising overall temperatures.

— The immediate impact of the sudden spike in temperatures would be on the standing rabi crops. Mustard, wheat, gram, groundnut, sesame, sorghum, safflower, in addition to vegetables like potato and fruits like apples, will need additional care. Farmers have been advised to deploy frequent irrigation to maintain soil moisture levels. However, this could further stress local water resources.

Do You Know:

— According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)- A heatwave is a period of abnormally high temperatures, more than the normal maximum temperature that occurs during the summer season in the North-Western parts of India. 

— Heatwaves typically occur between March and June, and in some rare cases even extend till July. The extreme temperatures and resultant atmospheric conditions adversely affect people living in these regions as they cause physiological stress, sometimes resulting in death.

—  A heatwave is declared when the maximum temperature of a station reaches at least 40°C or more for plains, 37°C or more for coastal stations, and at least 30°C or more for hilly regions.

— Based on departure from normal temperatures, the following criteria are used to declare a heatwave:

(i) Heatwave: Departure from normal is 4.5°C to 6.4°C.

(ii) Severe Heatwave: Departure from normal is 6.4°C.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍UPSC Issue at a Glance | Heatwaves: 5 Key Questions You Must Know for Prelims and Mains

Previous year UPSC Mains Question Covering similar theme:

Bring out the causes for the formation of heat islands in the urban habitat of the world. (UPSC CSE 2013)

 

THE IDEAS PAGE

For women farmers, AI is an opportunity

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance

Mains Examination: General Studies-III: Science and Technology- developments and their applications and effects in everyday life; e-technology in the aid of farmers.

What’s the ongoing story: Purvi Mehta and Soumya Swaminathan wrote: Maharashtra has announced a dedicated AI strategy for agriculture, and several public-private partnerships are already piloting AI-driven crop advisories, pest diagnostics, and climate-risk prediction models.

Key Points to Ponder:

— What is the contribution of the agriculture sector in the GDP of the economy?

— What are the reasons for agriculture being the single largest employer of working women in India?

— What are the problems faced by women in the agriculture sector?

— How is AI being used in the agriculture sector?

— What are the government schemes related to use of AI in agriculture?

Key Takeaways:

— For India’s women farmers, this moment represents a historic opportunity. Women constitute nearly 43 per cent of India’s agricultural labour force. They contribute close to half of crop production and over 70 per cent of livestock-related work. 

— Agriculture remains the single largest employer of working women in India, accounting for nearly 55-60 per cent of female employment in rural areas.

— Yet, women own only about 13-14 per cent of operational landholdings. Their access to institutional credit remains low. Women are also around 15-20 per cent less likely than men to own a smartphone and significantly less likely to use mobile internet. Bridging this digital divide is not just a social goal, it is an economic multiplier.

— AI is already reshaping agriculture. Satellite-based remote sensing and computer vision systems now detect crop stress, pest incidence, and nutrient deficiencies with accuracy. Machine-learning models integrating IMD weather data, soil health cards, and cropping histories are improving yield forecasts. 

— These technologies address three chronic constraints: Knowledge management asymmetry, input inefficiency, and climate variability. For women farmers, these efficiencies translate into time savings, reduced drudgery, and improved productivity.

— Diversified agriculture including millets, pulses, horticulture, small livestock, and backyard enterprises — where women play a larger role — remains understudied, under-digitised and under-modelled. 

— This can cause AI algorithms to be biased towards limited sections of agriculture practices. This imbalance can affect model training. If the datasets disproportionately reflect male-centric commodities, advisory tools may inadvertently privilege those value chains.

— Investing in digitisation of diversified commodities, integrating FPO-level data, and leveraging women’s self-help groups as data partners can help correct this asymmetry. 

— Key technical and institutional steps include: Optimising low-bandwidth systems; multilingual and dialect-trained models; participatory data pipelines; gender-disaggregated performance metrics; digital access investments.

— Agriculture contributes roughly 15-18 per cent to India’s GDP but employs over 40 per cent of the workforce. Productivity gains of even 5-10 per cent through AI-enabled optimisation could significantly raise rural incomes. If women are systematically included, the multiplier effects on household nutrition, education, and local enterprise could be transformative.

— If AI strategies integrate gender-smart design, correct data asymmetries, and close digital access gaps, the technology can accelerate not just productivity but equity. In the International Year of the Woman Farmer, we should endeavour to make India’s AI revolution synonymous with inclusive agricultural transformation — one that recognises and multiplies the contribution of the women who feed the nation.

Do You Know:

— Bharat-VISTAAR is an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-powered multilingual tool that provides information to farmers in their native language through mobile or a simple phone call. The tool offers guidance on crop planning, agricultural practices, pests, weather forecasts, markets, scheme information, eligibility, applications, and grievances. It serves as a single “digital doorway” for farmers to access required information.

— Kisan e-Mitra is an AI-powered chatbot to help farmers in their queries on the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi scheme. It aims to enhance the efficiency and reach of the PM-KISAN scheme, while providing the farmers with “prompt, clear and accurate” responses to their queries. It supports 11 regional languages and is evolving to assist with other government programs.

— AgriStack was launched in 2024 as part of the Centre’s Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) Mission in the agriculture sector to consolidate data on a single platform. 

— The AgriStack comprises three foundational registries or databases in the agriculture sector: the Farmer Registry, Geo-referenced village maps and the Crop Sown Registry, all created and maintained by the State Governments or Union Territories. 

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍How women farmers anchor India’s greying agriculture

📍Knowledge Nugget | Bharat-VISTAAR and beyond: How are AI and digital technologies being integrated into agriculture in India?

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:

(3) In the context of India’s preparation for Climate -Smart Agriculture, consider the following statements: (UPSC CSE 2021)

1. The ‘Climate-Smart Village’ approach in India is a part of a project led by the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), an international research programme.

2. The project of CCAFS is carried out under Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) headquartered in France.

3. The International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) in India is one of the CGIAR’s research centres.

Which of the statements given above are correct? 

(a) 1 and 2 only 

(b) 2 and 3 only 

(c) 1 and 3 only 

(d) 1, 2 and 3

Previous year UPSC Mains Question Covering similar theme:

Explain various types of revolutions, took place in Agriculture after Independence in India. How have these revolutions helped in poverty alleviation and food security in India? (UPSC CSE 2017)

When the state pays for babies: Some lessons from Sikkim

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies-II: Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors and issues arising out of their design and implementation.

What’s the ongoing story: S Y Quraishi writes: When Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu recently proposed a cash incentive of Rs 25,000 for couples having a second or third child, it revived an important question about India’s demographic future: Can governments reverse falling birth rates through financial incentives?

Key Points to Ponder:

— What is the total fertility rate (TFR)?

— What are the reasons for the declining fertility rate in India?

— What is the impact of declining TFR on the economy?

— Concerns about population shifts are driving demographic anxiety that is undermining the reproductive autonomy of women globally, including in India. Elaborate.

— What are the reasons for the disparity in TFR among Indian states?

Key Takeaways:

— Andhra Pradesh today records a total fertility rate of roughly 1.4 children per woman, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1. Concerned about the long-term economic fallouts of an ageing population, the state is exploring ways to encourage larger families.

— The idea of paying couples to have more children may appear bold. Yet India has already seen a similar experiment, one that has been underway for several years in Sikkim.

— Around 2022, Sikkim rolled out a series of incentives designed to encourage couples to have more children. These amounted to perhaps the most comprehensive pro-natalist policy attempted by any Indian state. 

— The idea was straightforward: If raising children became financially less burdensome, families might feel encouraged to expand. But the policy went much further. Women government employees were offered state-funded childcare attendants to assist them after childbirth. This was intended to reduce the conflict many working women face between professional responsibilities and parenting.

— The incentives were not limited to government employees. Mothers working in the private sector were also included… Perhaps the most innovative aspect of Sikkim’s policy addressed a factor often ignored in demographic debates: Infertility. Interestingly, the state chose to tackle it directly.

— Under the Vatsalya scheme, the government offered financial assistance for in vitro fertilisation (IVF) treatment to couples unable to conceive naturally.

— Together, these policies formed a comprehensive approach: Financial incentives, childcare support for working mothers, expanded parental leave and even government-backed fertility treatment. Despite these incentives, Sikkim’s fertility rate remains extremely low and the anticipated baby boom has not materialised. 

— Governments across the world have tried to encourage childbirth through financial incentives and social benefits. Yet the results have rarely matched expectations.

— Take Singapore, TFR about 1.0. For decades, the city-state has offered generous baby bonuses, tax rebates, subsidised childcare and housing incentives for families with children. Despite these measures, its fertility rate has continued to decline and remains among the lowest in the world.

— Across modern societies, fertility decline is driven by deeper structural changes. Women marry later and pursue longer careers. Urban lifestyles raise the cost of housing, education and, increasingly, childcare. 

— Many couples prefer to invest more resources in fewer children rather than raise larger families. In such circumstances, a one-time payment or monthly subsidy, even a generous one, may not significantly alter the fundamental calculus of family life.

— This does not mean governments should do nothing. International experience suggests that fertility responds less to one-time incentives than to long-term confidence in family life. Countries that have managed to stabilise birth rates, such as France and the Nordic states, did so by making parenthood compatible with modern life through affordable childcare, predictable parental leave, flexible workplaces and housing support.

— Seen in this context, Andhra Pradesh’s proposal should perhaps be viewed less as a definitive solution and more as a policy experiment. Sikkim’s experience offers a useful lesson. Demography moves slowly but powerfully. 

— Governments may attempt to encourage childbirth through incentives and subsidies, but the decision to bring a child into the world ultimately reflects a family’s confidence in its economic future and social stability. That confidence cannot simply be purchased.

Do You Know:

— India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) – the average number of children per woman – has dropped to 2.0, according to the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) State of World Population Report 2025. The same was also reported in the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) of 2019-21. 

— A TFR of 2 is considered the replacement level as two kids will replace their parents. But since some kids die, the replacement level is considered as 2.1. Hence, India’s TFR has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1. 

— There are notable regional variations in fertility rates across India. According to the NFHS-5, only five states – Bihar (2.98), Uttar Pradesh (2.35), Jharkhand (2.26), Meghalaya (2.91), and Manipur (2.17) – still exceed the replacement rate of 2.1. In comparison, southern and western states such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Gujarat report fertility levels below replacement levels – ranging from 1.6 to 1.9. The TFR has also declined in both urban (1.6) and rural (2.2) areas.

— High fertility rates are often associated with pressure on public infrastructure and lower levels of women’s education and agency, while low fertility rates raise concerns about better economic and social security.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍What gender gap lens reveals about declining fertility rate

📍India’s real fertility crisis is about choice, not numbers

Previous year UPSC Mains Question Covering similar theme:

“Empowering women is the key to control the population growth.’’ Discuss. (UPSC CSE 2019)

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PRELIMS ANSWER KEY

1. (b)  2. (d)  3. (d)

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