UPSC Key: Logical discrepancy, El Nino and Consumer Price Index

Key Points to Ponder:

• Special Intensive Revision (SIR) in West Bengal-what is the status as of now?

• What is Special Intensive Revision (SIR)?

• What is the rationality behind Special Intensive Revision in West Bengal?

• Why Special Intensive Revision in West Bengal has been mired in controversy and facing legal challenges ?

• What exactly Supreme Court said in this regard?

• How SIR in West Bengal is different from SIR in Bihar?

• How the SIR impacted the electoral rolls of West Bengal?

• Why Supreme Court cited 2002 notification in this regard?

• What is Logical discrepancy?

• How logical discrepancy category is impacting voters in West Bengal?

• What is ‘under adjudication’ category?

• What Representation of the People Act says in this regard?

• “The right to vote is the biggest expression of nationality and patriotism…in a democratic government”-Analyse

• What Constitution of India says on Voting rights?

• What are the issues flagged by opposition?

Key Takeaways:

• Hearing a petition on the adjudication of appeals against the exclusion of names in the SIR of electoral rolls in the state, the court indicated that it might consider allowing an additional supplementary list.

• “…Suppose margin is 2% and 15% of electorate who are mapped could not vote, then maybe we are not expressing any opinion, but we would definitely have to apply our minds,” Justice Joymalya Bagchi, who was part of a two-judge bench presided by Chief Justice of India Surya Kant, said.

• The bench was considering a plea on the pendency of appeals against exclusion on the ground of logical discrepancy before the Appellate Tribunals set up to decide on them.

• The Indian Express had reported on April 11 that with the electoral rolls for West Bengal’s two-phased Assembly elections finalised, Election Commission (EC) data shows that more electors have been deleted during the Supreme Court-monitored adjudication process in 15% of 293 constituencies than the winning margin in those seats in the 2021 polls.

Do You Know:
Damini Nath Writes-

• When the final electoral roll, after the four-month-long Special Intensive Revision (SIR) in West Bengal, was published on February 28, it clearly showed that the total electorate in the state had decreased by 8% or around 61 lakh names.

• In fact, 60.06 lakh registered electors in the state found themselves on the roll but were stamped “under adjudication”, meaning they were on the rolls, but not quite. They will not be able to exercise their right to vote in the upcoming state Assembly elections till the 500-odd judicial officers appointed on orders of the Supreme Court review their cases and decide to keep them on the rolls in subsequent supplementary lists.

• Those who are found ineligible on the basis of documents submitted during the SIR will be deleted from the rolls, losing the right to vote. This did not happen in the nine states and three Union Territories where the Election Commission has completed the SIR so far.

• On June 24, 2025, the Election Commission announced its plan to conduct a Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls of the country. For the past 20 years, the EC has been updating the electoral rolls in all states annually and before each Lok Sabha and Assembly election by adding newly eligible electors and deleting deceased and other ineligible electors.
The SIR order of June 24, however, laid out an unprecedented new process. All those who were registered as electors would be required to submit enumeration forms in a one-month enumeration phase, either to their local Booth Level Officer (BLO), or online.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍How West Bengal SIR played out differently from other states, what it means for rest of country

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
1) Right to vote and to be elected in India is a (UPSC CSE, 2017)
(a) Fundamental Right
(b) Natural Right
(c) Constitutional Right
(d) Legal Right

The Editorial Page

Rupee is more than a measure of price. It’s also a barometer of credibility

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies III: Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization, of resources, growth, development and employment.

What’s the ongoing story: Sachchidanand Shukla Writes-For many emerging and developed markets alike, the reality of a currency in freefall is not a boom in exports, but often a harsh blow to purchasing power and investor confidence.

Key Points to Ponder:

• What determines the rupee’s demand and supply vis-a-vis other currencies?

• What is Currency depreciation?

• What do you understand by Rupee depreciation?

• Appreciation vs Depreciation of Currency-Compare and Contrast

• What is Devaluation of Currency? Depreciation and Devaluation both are same?

• What are the reasons for Current Depreciation of Indian Rupee?

• How does the rupee’s exchange rate fluctuate?

• What is the RBI’s role in this?

• Is a fall in the exchange rate necessarily a bad thing?

Key Takeaways:

• For some, a certain brand of mercantilist logic has whispered that the currency has to be the only “shock absorber” during an external crisis. And for a few others, a weaker currency is a shortcut to prosperity and competitiveness — a neat trick to boost exports and undercut global rivals.

• But as history and economic theory repeatedly demonstrate, when depreciation shifts from a tactical adjustment to a continuing bout, the much-hoped for pressure valve gives way or the hoped-for “competitive edge” quickly dulls, leaving behind a trail of inflationary wreckage and hollowed-out balance sheets.

• The allure of a depreciating exchange rate lies in its simplicity: It makes ones’ goods cheaper for foreigners. However, this is often a Faustian bargain. For many emerging and developed markets alike, the reality of a currency in freefall is not a boom in exports, but often a harsh blow to purchasing power and investor confidence.

• To understand why currencies often fall farther and faster than fundamentals suggest, Econ 101 refers us to Rudi Dornbusch’s overshooting model. Dornbusch observed that because goods prices are “sticky”, they change slowly, and as financial markets are “fluid”, exchange rates must do the heavy lifting in the short term to reach equilibrium.

• When a central bank pivots to an expansionary stance, the currency doesn’t just settle at its new long-run value; it “overshoots” it, collapsing violently before slowly appreciating back. For a country already facing a crisis of confidence, this overshooting can trigger a self-fulfilling prophecy of capital flight.

• This struggle is encapsulated by the Mundell-Fleming Model, which presents the “Impossible Trinity”. A country cannot simultaneously have a fixed exchange rate, free capital movement, and an independent monetary policy. When authorities try to fight market forces during a depreciation bout such as the current one, they often find themselves cornered. If they raise rates to defend the currency, they choke domestic growth; if they let it slide, they import inflation.

Do You Know:

• India’s economy and the rupee have faced brutal currency storms before, like the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008-09 and the 2013 Taper Tantrum, and bounced back smarter. Following the GFC, the world saw a race to the bottom as nations sought to devalue their way to recovery.

• Cut to 2026. India has reported a BoP deficit for two years in a row and FY26 may well make it the third year in a row. Notably, FPIs inflows were in the positive for only one of the last five years. Moreover, net FDI inflows since Aug-25 have been negative. Thus, even a smaller level of absolute CAD has become a funding challenge, creating headwinds for the rupee.

• Fiscal measures (oil price rejig, subsidy reforms) and broader policy reforms (energy security, distribution reforms, inclusion of energy sector, specifically electricity and petroleum products under GST) will be needed.

• With rising repatriation pressurising net FDI, retaining existing investors, not just attracting new ones, through measures such as ease of doing business norms, policy stability, attractive incentives and building long-term investor confidence will be needed to shore up confidence in the currency, as also seen in the past episodes.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Why the Indian rupee fell 10% against the US dollar in 2022

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
2) Which one of the following is not the most likely measure the Government/RBI takes to stop the slide of the Indian rupee? (UPSC CSE, 2019)
(a) Curbing imports of non-essential goods and promoting exports
(b) Encouraging Indian borrowers to issue rupee-denominated Masala Bonds
(c) Easing conditions relating to external commercial borrowing
(d) Following an expansionary monetary policy

Nation

MeT dept forecasts ‘below-normal’ monsoon rainfall on El Niño concerns

Preliminary Examination: Indian and World Geography

Mains Examination: General Studies I: Important Geophysical phenomena such as earthquakes, Tsunami, Volcanic activity, cyclone etc., geographical features and their location-changes in critical geographical features (including water-bodies and ice-caps) and in flora and fauna and the effects of such changes.

What’s the ongoing story: The country is expected to receive ‘below normal’ rainfall in this year’s monsoon season, with a developing El Nino, a phenomenon in the eastern Pacific Ocean that influences global weather patterns, likely to play spoilsport, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday.

Key Points to Ponder:

• What is El Nino?

• How El Nino impacts monsoon in India?

• El Niño and La Niña-Compare and Contrast

• How is Indian monsoon predicted?

• Which department in India does weather forecasting?

• What is the India Meteorological Department?

• India Meteorological Department-Know its role, responsibilities and function

• What do we mean by long period average (LPA) of rainfall?

• What is large excess, excess, normal, deficient, large deficient rainfall?

• What is below normal, normal and above normal rainfall for the country as a whole?

Key Takeaways:

• India receives more than 70 per cent of its annual rainfall during the four-month monsoon season (June-September), with July and August contributing the most. These rains are not just crucial for irrigation of large parts of India’s cropped land, it is also significant for meeting the demands of drinking water, hydroelectricity generation and groundwater recharge. Bad rainfall can impact agricultural outputs, power generation, rural incomes, and economic demand.

• The early forecast by IMD, a month and a half before the start of the season, helps governments prepare for these contingencies.

• In its first long-range forecast for the coming season, the IMD said monsoon rainfall over India as a whole was likely to be 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA, or the average rainfall over the 50-year period (1971-2020) during the four-month monsoon season between June and September, is 87 cm.

• The expected low rainfall this year would bring an end to two back-to-back years of extremely good rainfall. In both 2024 and 2025, India as a whole received rainfall that was 108 per cent of the LPA.

• There have been occasions when the monsoon rainfall has been good despite prevalence of El Nino. A case in point is 1997 when the country received over 100% in an El Nino year. 2023 also happened to be an El Nino year and it produced 95%rains. In general, however, El Nino does tend to suppress rainfall over India.

• The IMD issues the first seasonal rainfall forecast in the middle of April every year and follows it up with another one in May, during which it also provides predictions for the spatial and monthly distribution of rainfall during the season.

Do You Know:

• The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) refers to the periodic warming or cooling of the eastern Pacific Ocean, off the coast of South America, that influences weather worldwide. In India, its most evident impact happens on the monsoon rainfall. A warmer-than-usual eastern Pacific Ocean, the El Nino phase, is usually correlated with suppressed rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.

• El Nino, as is commonly known, refers to an abnormal warming of surface waters in equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is known to suppress monsoon rainfall. The opposite phase, La Nina, which is the abnormal cooling of sea surface waters in the same region, is known to aid rainfall over India. There is a third, neutral phase, as well in which the sea surface temperatures remain roughly in line with long-term averages. Together, these three phases in the Pacific Ocean are referred to as El Nino Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍What is El Nino and how it impacts the monsoon

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
3) With reference to ‘Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)’ sometimes mentioned in the news while forecasting Indian monsoon, which of the following statements is/are correct? (UPSC CSE, 2017)
1. IOD phenomenon is characterised by a difference in sea surface temperature between tropical Western Indian Ocean and tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean.
2. An IOD phenomenon can influence an EI Nino’s impact on the monsoon.
Select the correct answer using the code given below:
(a) 1 only
(b) 2 only
(c) Both 1 and 2
(d) Neither 1 nor 2

4) La Nina is suspected to have caused recent floods in Australia. How is La Nina different from EI Nino? (UPSC CSE, 2011)
1. La Nina is characterized by un¬usually cold ocean temperature in equatorial Indian ocean whereas EI Nino is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperature in the equatorial pacific ocean.
2. EI Nino has adverse effect on south¬west monsoon of India, but La Nina has no effect on monsoon climate.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 only
(b) 2 only
(c) Both 1 and 2
(d) Neither 1 nor 2

Explained

The many uncertainties in Trump’s blockade plan

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Main Examination: General Studies II: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests

What’s the ongoing story: The United States began a blockade on all traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports starting Monday evening (10 am eastern US time)—a move aimed at choking Iranian trade, after the first direct U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad over the weekend failed.

Key Points to Ponder:

• What a blockade entails?

• How the blockade works?

• Strait of Hormuz Blockade-What’s at Stake?

• How it will impact Iran?

• What is the implication for oil flows?

• Which importers are most affected?

• What is India’s take?

Key Takeaways:

• In response, Iran said that no ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman will be safe if the US were to go ahead with the blockade on Iran’s ports and coastline.

• The US Central Command (CENTCOM) had earlier said that its forces will enforce the blockade impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including those “on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman”, adding that the forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.

Do You Know:

• Former senior naval officers explained that a blockade is an act of war or an International Armed Conflict as it involves an operation by a belligerent state engaged in a conflict to prevent vessels and/or aircraft of all states — enemy as well as neutral — from entering or exiting specified ports, airfields, or coastal areas belonging to, occupied by, or under the control of an enemy belligerent state.

• It is for the same reason that the Kennedy administration during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis called its naval action a quarantine and not a blockade.

• Vice Admiral Pradeep Chauhan (retd) said a blockade typically involves the deployment of surface combatant vessels to stop, inspect and, where appropriate, to seize or capture vessels that are reasonably suspected to be attempting to breach the blockade.

• Vice Admiral Chauhan further explained that for a blockade to be legally compliant, it must fulfil certain criteria, including:
(a) It must be duly established and declared by notification to both, belligerent and neutral states (in other words, it must be instituted under the authority of a belligerent government, and the declaration to this effect must notify the commencement of the blockade. While there is no requirement to provide an end date, whenever it is terminated, the fact of such termination must also be notified.
(b) It must be continuously maintained and impartially enforced against all vessels alike.
(c) It must have a lawful military objective. For instance, it is illegal to impose a blockade whose sole purpose is to starve the civilian population or to deny the civilian population other objects essential for its survival.
(d) It must be ‘effective’, which means that it must be maintained by a force sufficient to truly prevent access to the coasts of the enemy. It is illegal to impose a “paper” blockade, with no intention or possibility of enforcing it.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍After Islamabad, what Iran’s top delegates have signalled so far

📍India calls for ‘unimpeded freedom of navigation’ via Hormuz amid US blockade

The World

Mutually automated destruction: The escalating global AI weapons race

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Main Examination: General Studies II: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests

What’s the ongoing story: At a military parade in Beijing in September, President Xi Jinping and his special guests, President Vladimir Putin of Russia and the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, watched as Chinese forces showed off several models of drones that could autonomously fly alongside fighter jets into battle.

Key Points to Ponder:

• What is AI-driven warfare?

• The emergence of AI-driven warfare-Know in detail

• What are the implications of AI in military strategy?

• What are the risks associated with AI-driven warfare?

• How AI may increase accidental escalation in conflicts?

• Discuss the global AI arms race among major powers.

• What makes AI weapons fundamentally different?

• Why the United States, China and Russia are at the centre?

• What is India’s position in AI-driven warfare?

Key Takeaways:

• The demonstration of technological might immediately set off alarm bells in the United States. Pentagon officials concluded that America’s program for unmanned combat drones was lagging China’s, according to three U.S. defense and intelligence officials. Russia, too, was thought to be ahead in building facilities that could produce advanced drones, said the officials, who were not authorized to speak publicly on military capabilities.

• U.S. officials pushed domestic defense companies to step up. Last month, Anduril, a defense technology startup in California, began manufacturing artificial intelligence-backed, self-flying drones that appeared similar to the ones shown in China. Production at a factory outside Columbus, Ohio, started three months ahead of schedule, part of an effort to close the gap with China, one defense official said.

• China’s military display and the U.S. countermove were part of an escalating global arms race over AI-backed autonomous weapons and defense systems. Designed to operate by themselves using AI, the technology reduces the need for human intervention in decisions like when to hit a moving target or defend against an attack.

Do You Know:

• In recent years, many nations have quietly engaged in a contest of one-upmanship over these arsenals, including drones that identify and strike targets without human command, self-flying fighter jets that coordinate attacks at speeds and altitudes that few human pilots can reach, and central systems run by AI that analyze intelligence to recommend airstrike targets quickly.

• The United States and China, the world’s largest military powers, are at the center of the competition. But the race has widened. Russia and Ukraine, now in their fifth year of war, are looking for every technological advantage. India, Israel, Iran and others are investing in military AI, while France, Germany, Britain and Poland are rearming amid doubts about the Trump administration’s commitment to NATO.

• Each nation is aiming to amass the most advanced technological stockpile in case they need to fight drone against drone and algorithm against algorithm in ways that people cannot match, defense and intelligence officials said.

• The buildup has been compared to the dawn of the nuclear age in the 1940s, when the atomic bomb’s destructive power forced rival nations into an uneasy standoff, leading to more than four decades of nuclear weapons brinkmanship.
But while the implications of nuclear weapons are well understood, AI’s military capabilities are just beginning to be known. The technology — which does not need to pause, eat, drink or sleep — is set to upend warfare by making battles faster and more unpredictable, officials said.

• China and Russia are experimenting with letting AI make battlefield decisions on its own, two U.S. officials said. China is developing systems for dozens of autonomous drones to coordinate attacks without human input, while Russia is building Lancet drones that can circle in the sky and autonomously pick targets, they said.

• In 2016 at an air show in the southern Chinese city of Zhuhai, a Chinese supplier flew 67 drones in unison. An animated film separately showed the drones destroying a missile launcher, a demonstration of their capabilities. Russia, too, was building its drone arsenal. In 2014, its military planners set a goal of making 30% of its combat power autonomous by 2025. By 2018, the Russian military was testing an unmanned armed vehicle in Syria. While the tank failed, losing its signal and missing targets, it underscored Moscow’s ambitions

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍For India, why the AI arms race is far from over

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
5) With the present state of development, Artificial Intelligence can effectively do which of the following? (UPSC CSE, 2020)
1. Bring down electricity consumption in industrial units
2. Create meaningful short stories and songs
3. Disease diagnosis
4. Text-to-Speech Conversion
5. Wireless transmission of electrical energy
Select the correct answer using the code given below:
(a) 1, 2, 3 and 5 only
(b) 1, 3 and 4 only
(c) 2, 4 and 5 only
(d) 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5

Economy

Consumer prices rose 3.4% in March, early signs of war impact

Preliminary Examination: Economic and Social Development

Mains Examination: General Studies III: Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization, of resources, growth, development and employment.

What’s the ongoing story: India’s headline inflation rate rose to 3.4% in March, as the impact of the war in West Asia was only felt in small pockets and to a limited extent, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Monday.

Key Points to Ponder:

• What is CPI inflation?

• How is it calculated?

• What are its components?

• What does the data show?

• What is the significance?

• What is Inflation?

• Know the Types of Inflation like Moderate Inflation, Galloping Inflation, Hyperinflation, Stagflation, Deflation, Core Inflation etc.

• What are the causes of Inflation in the present situation

• How Inflation is Measured in India?

• What is the Long term, Medium Term and Short-term impact of Inflation?

• New Standard for Measuring Inflation in India and Old Standard for Measuring Inflation-Key Differences

• Steps or Measures Taken by GOI to Control Inflation

• What do you understand by Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Consumer Price Index? WPI and CPI is published by whom?

• What’s the RBI assessment on inflation recently?

Key Takeaways:

• At 3.4%, the March inflation rate as per the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is only slightly higher than February’s 3.21%. However, food inflation rose at a faster clip of 3.87%, up from 3.47% in February.

• Inflation measures the change in price in one month compared to the same month last year.

• While the March headline inflation numbers are fairly similar to those of February and along expected lines, there was a sharp rise in a key underlying number, with the inflation print for the ‘electricity, gas and other fuels’ category at 1.65% from 0.14% in February.

• The war in West Asia has pushed up energy prices globally, with the price of India’s crude oil basket surging more than 60% in March compared to February. And while petrol and diesel have not become dearer for consumers at petrol pumps due to the oil marketing companies leaving their prices unchanged, the government increased the price of domestic LPG cylinders by Rs 60 in early March. Kerosene prices have also been raised.

Do You Know:

• The CPI inflation is nothing but the rate of inflation that consumers face. It is different from the major inflation indicator — the wholesale price index-based inflation rate. According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), which releases the data, the consumer price index measures “changes over time in general level of prices of a basket of selected goods and services that households acquire for the purpose of consumption”.

• Apart from an aggregate index, consumer price indices are constructed for both rural and urban consumers as well. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has updated the base year for India’s major economic indices to 2022-23 for GDP and IIP, and 2024 for CPI.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Knowledge Nugget: CPI vs WPI and Inflation basics for UPSC preparation

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
6) Consider the following statements: (UPSC CSE, 2020)
1. The weightage of food in Consumer Price Index (CPI) is higher than that in Wholesale Price Index (WPI).
2. The WPI does not capture changes in the prices of services, which CPI does.
3. The Reserve Bank of India has now adopted WPI as its key measure of inflation and to decide on changing the key policy rates.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 2 only
(c) 3 only
(d) 1, 2 and 3

 

PRELIMS ANSWER KEY

1.(c)  2.(d)  3.(b)  4.(d)  5.(d) 6.(a)

  

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