UPSC Key: New Governors in states and UT, Legal framework governing maritime conflict, and India’s rice production

Key Points to Ponder:

— How is the Governor appointed in the state?

— What are the constitutional provisions related to the Governor?

— What are the roles and responsibilities of the Governor?

— What are the reasons for the tussle between the governor and the state government?

— What are the concerns related to governors not completing their tenures?

— What are the important committees formed for the reform in the position of governor?

Key Takeaways:

— As part of major gubernatorial appointments announced by President Droupadi Murmu Thursday night, Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (retd) was named the new Bihar Governor, taking over from Arif Mohammed Khan.

— Taranjit Singh Sandhu, retired diplomat and a former Ambassador to the US, will be the new Lt Governor of Delhi, replacing Vinai Kumar Saxena who was posted to Ladakh as Lt Governor.

— Ladakh Lt Governor Kavinder Gupta, a former Deputy Chief Minister in the BJP-PDP government in the erstwhile state of J&K, will be the new Governor of Himachal Pradesh.

— Governor Shiv Pratap Shukla will move from Himachal Pradesh to Telangana. He will take over from Jishnu Dev Varma who was appointed Governor of Maharashtra, according to a communique from Rashtrapati Bhavan.

— Nand Kishore Yadav, former Speaker of Bihar Assembly, was appointed Governor of Nagaland which had so far been functioning under the additional charge of Manipur Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla.

— With Ravi being sent to West Bengal, Kerala Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar will administer Tamil Nadu for the time being.

— Bose, who succeeded Jagdeep Dhankhar, who was in constant conflict with the TMC government, had earned the ire of local BJP leaders for his less confrontational approach towards the elected government. Senior party leaders, including Leader of Opposition Suvendu Adhikari, had publicly criticised Bose for being close to the Chief Minister.

— According to sources, Bose is likely to take part in official proceedings related to the visit of President Droupadi Murmu, who reaches the state for a two-day visit Friday, since Ravi would need to be sworn in and complete additional formalities.

— According to party insiders, the reshuffle in gubernatorial ranks was part of a national exercise that also includes a possible Union Cabinet reshuffle, putting in place a fresh team for newly appointed BJP national president Nitin Nabin and an evaluation of all BJP-run state governments in the country.

Do You Know:

— Article 153 of the Constitution says “There shall be a Governor for each State.” A few years after the commencement of the Constitution, an amendment in 1956 laid down that “nothing in this article shall prevent the appointment of the same person as Governor for two or more States”.

— Article 155 says that the “Governor of a State shall be appointed by the President by warrant under his hand and seal”. Under Article 156, “the Governor shall hold office during the pleasure of the President”, but his normal term of office will be five years.

— If the President withdraws her pleasure before the completion of five years, the Governor has to step down. Since the President acts on the aid and advice of the Prime Minister and the Union Council of Ministers, in effect, the Governor is appointed and removed by the central government.

— Articles 157 and 158 lay down the qualifications of the Governor and the conditions of his office. The Governor must be a citizen of India and should have completed the age of 35 years. The Governor should not be a member of Parliament or a state legislature, and must not hold any other office of profit.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍How are Governors appointed, and why is their role often controversial?

📍Knowledge Nugget: SC Verdict on TN Governor — Why it matters for UPSC

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:

(1) Which one of the following suggested that the Governor should be an eminent person from outside the State and should be a detached figure without intense political links or should not have taken part in politics in the recent past? (UPSC CSE 2019)

(a) First Administrative Reforms Commission (1966)

(b) Rajamannar Committee (1969)

(c) Sarkaria Commission (1983)

(d) National Commission to Review the Working of the Constitution (2000)

Previous year UPSC Mains Question Covering similar theme:

Discuss the essential conditions for exercise of the legislative powers by the Governor. Discuss the legality of re-promulgation of ordinances by the Governor without placing them before the Legislature. (UPSC CSE 2022)

India is for rule of law & dialogue, military conflict no solution: PM

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance

Mains Examination: General Studies-II: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

What’s the ongoing story: Underlining that India believes in the “rule of law, dialogue, and diplomacy”, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Thursday that “no issue can be resolved solely through military conflict” and Delhi will continue to support every effort to end conflict and restore peace, be it in West Asia or Ukraine.

Key Points to Ponder:

— What is the rule of law?

— Know about India-Finland cooperation

— What is the significance of Finland for India?

— What are India’s concerns related to conflict in West Asia?

— What do you understand by elevating the relationship to Strategic Partnership? What is its significance?

— Which are the countries in the Nordic region?

— Is Finland member of the European Union?

Key Takeaways:

— His remarks came a day after Iranian warship IRIS Dena, which had earlier taken part in a military exercise in India, was torpedoed by a US submarine in international waters in the Indian Ocean.

— External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar too had a phone conversation with Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister – this was their second conversation since the start of the conflict on February 28.

— “India and Finland both believe in the rule of law, dialogue, and diplomacy. We are in agreement that no issue can be resolved solely through military conflict. Whether in Ukraine or in West Asia, we will continue to support every effort aimed at the early end of conflict and the restoration of peace,” he said.

— This was the first time that the Prime Minister had used the formulation “rule of law” and “military conflict” in the context of the US-Israel attacks on Iran and Tehran’s counter-attacks on Israel and US military bases and personnel in the region.

From the Nation page: India and Finland elevate bilateral ties to strategic partnership

— India and Finland elevated their ties to “Strategic Partnership in Digitalization and Sustainability”, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and visiting Finnish President Alexander Stubb held bilateral talks in New Delhi on Thursday.

— Following the talks, the two sides signed three pacts on mobility, environment and statistics, and set the aim to double bilateral trade by ߮ establish a joint working group on digitalisation, a joint task force on 6G and greater connectivity of startup ecosystems; co-host World Circular Economy Forum in India; and put in place a consular dialogue.

— After the talks, PM Modi said, “At the beginning of 2026, the historic India-European Union Free Trade Agreement was concluded. This agreement (with Stubb) will further strengthen trade, investment, and technology cooperation between India and Finland. In areas such as digital technology, infrastructure, and sustainability, India and Finland are important partners.”

— Citing examples of India-Finland cooperation, Modi, in a joint press statement at Hyderabad House, said that Nokia mobile phones and telecom networks have connected millions of people across India. With the cooperation of Finnish architects, India has built the world’s highest railway bridge over the Chenab River, he said. With Finland’s partnership, India has also established the world’s largest bamboo-to-bioethanol refinery in Numaligarh (Assam), Modi added.

— Stubb said, “You (India) have shown the rest of the world that strategic caution and safeguarding autonomy means a lot, all the while championing multilateralism and global corporation, and I believe, personally, that we should all become a little bit more Indian.”

— Stating that Finland is increasingly becoming a preferred destination for Indian students and talent, and to connect the innovation ecosystems of two countries, Modi said, “Today, we have concluded a comprehensive Migration and Mobility Agreement with Finland.”

— Underlining that Finland is an important partner for India in the Nordic region, Modi said, “Together with Finland, we are also enhancing our cooperation in Arctic and Polar research. A healthy planet is our shared priority. We are pleased that this year, together with Finland, we will host the World Circular Economy Forum in India. This will impart new momentum and fresh ideas to our efforts towards sustainability.”

Do You Know:

— Even as India and the European Union (EU) have agreed to ‘most favoured nation’ (MFN) treatment on the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) in an effort to get a concession on the EU’s most controversial regulation, the trade deal stops short of recognising independent Indian accreditation bodies that could have given immediate relief to Indian exporters.

— As per the trade deal’s text released late Friday, India and the EU can engage in a technical dialogue covering, the possibility of and, if relevant, conditions for “mutual recognition of accreditation bodies for the accreditation of verifiers, for the purpose of checking compliance with carbon border adjustment measures”.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍India-EU trade deal text falls short on recognising local CBAM accreditors

UPSC Prelims Practice Question Covering similar theme:

(2) Which of the following countries are part of Nordic countries, but not of Scandinavian countries?

(a) Denmark

(b) Finland

(c) Sweden

(d) Norway

 

EXPLAINED

The legal framework that governs maritime conflict

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance

Mains Examination: General Studies-II: Important International institutions, agencies and fora- their structure, mandate

What’s the ongoing story: A US submarine on Wednesday (March 4) torpedoed the Iranian warship IRIS Dena off the coast of Sri Lanka, outside its nautical boundary.

Key Points to Ponder:

— What is the International Fleet Review?

— What is the boundary of international water?

— What maritime laws and conventions protect the international waters?

— What is the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)?

— What is Article 51 of the UN Charter?

— What are Exclusive Economic Zones?

Key Takeaways:

— The ship was returning after participating in the International Fleet Review and MILAN-2026, a multilateral naval exercise organised by the Indian Navy off Visakhapatnam last month.

— The sinking of the frigate, in which at least 80 sailors were killed, has widened the theatre of the war between US-Israel and Iran — beyond West Asia and the Gulf to India’s immediate neighbourhood.

— It also ignited a debate in India about maritime security in the Indian Ocean, a region where New Delhi maintains a significant naval presence.

— International maritime law falls under the purview of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The US is not a signatory to it.

— But it does not contain explicit provisions regulating the conduct of belligerent parties during armed conflict, as its primary focus is on peacetime governance.

— Instead, the law of naval warfare operates in parallel with UNCLOS during conflicts. So, it doesn’t matter if the Dena was directly participating in the conflict. It was a warship of the Iranian navy and, therefore, a legitimate target.

— The UN Charter, too, addresses the use of force in international waters. Article 51 of the Charter, concerning the Right of individual or collective self-defence, provides an exception to the prohibition of the use of force as stipulated in Article 2 (4) of the Charter. Article 51 allows UN members to exercise their right to self-defence in the event of an “armed attack”.

— Alternatively, the Casebook of the International Committee of the Red Cross cites authorisation by the UN Security Council as grounds for a strike. While this measure dates back to the 1990 Gulf War, it may not be feasible.

— The Iranian warship was sanctioned by the US Treasury Department in February 2023, along with executives of an Iranian drone company called Paravar Pars… However, sanctions don’t mean that the ship cannot participate in a peacetime multilateral maritime exercise, but largely remains restricted to business or transactional activities.

— Vice Admiral G Ashok Kumar (Retd), former vice-chief of the Indian Navy and the country’s first national maritime security coordinator, pointed out that there is no restriction on a war zone in the maritime domain.

— The former Navy officer added that the incident took place in the exclusive economic zone of Sri Lanka, and hence, they could quickly get into the search and rescue operation.

— A senior Navy official said that the US submarine attack to down the Iranian warship in international waters while it was on a peaceful passage is a “big escalation” in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war.

From the Editorial Page: In sinking of the dena, a Catch-22 for India

— C. Uday Bhaskar writes: Akin to the ashwamedha yagna of old, international fleet reviews conducted by major maritime powers are a demonstration of professional naval credibility and an acknowledgement by the regional and global peer group of the host nation’s sovereignty and primacy in the proximate maritime domain.

— Given that the Dena was sunk 40 nautical miles from Sri Lanka, the politico-diplomatic optics are embarrassing for India, to say the least. Egg on the face comes to mind.

— Delhi will be in a catch-22 situation over this issue, which raises two questions: One, was India unaware of such submarine activity in its proximate waters? If yes, this raises further questions on the competence index of India’s underwater domain awareness.

— Two, if India was aware of such activity, was Delhi informed/apprised of the proposed US action when the Dena departed Visakhapatnam for Iranian waters? An affirmative answer to both these questions could lead to potentially discordant consequences for India, both in the domestic and regional context

— The more critical and adverse fallout of the Dena sinking is that a regional war, which was geographically limited and confined to air power and missile strikes, has now been expanded to the global maritime domain.

— The Indian Ocean region has critical global shipping lanes, including ones for hydrocarbon/energy imports used by all the major Asian economies. India relies on almost 88 per cent of the imported crude oil that transits these sea lines and is vulnerable to escalation.

— Wider conflict spillover could disrupt sea lines of communication, raise insurance costs, and trigger rerouting, thereby impacting India’s economy and energy security.

— India has always been wary of major power conflicts spreading into the South Asian neighbourhood. There is a sense of uneasy deja vu about Iran. In 1979, the Iranian Revolution and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan roiled the region for decades.

Do You Know:

— The Indian Navy last month hosted three major maritime events, including the IFR, the MILAN-2026, and the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) Conclave of Chiefs in Visakhapatnam between February 15 and 25.

— MILAN 2026 was aimed at bringing together navies from across the globe to strengthen interoperability, maritime domain awareness, and collective response capabilities.

— The Harbour and Sea Phases of the exercise focused on complex maritime operations including anti-submarine warfare, air defence, search and rescue, and cooperative security missions, reinforcing a shared commitment to free, open, inclusive, and rules-based seas.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Iran warship sunk near Sri Lanka: The naval drills it came to India to participate in

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:

(3) With reference to the United Nations Convention on the Law of Sea, consider the following statements: (UPSC CSE 2022)

1. A coastal state has the right to establish the breadth of its territorial sea up to a limit not exceeding 12 nautical miles, measured from baseline determined in accordance with the convention.

2. Ships of all states, whether coastal or land-locked, enjoy the right of innocent passage through the territorial sea.

3. The Exclusive Economic Zone shall not extend beyond 200 nautical miles from the baseline from which the breadth of the territorial sea is measured.

Which of the statements given above are correct?

(a) 1 and 2 only

(b) 2 and 3 only

(c) 1 and 3 only

(d) 1, 2 and 3

Previous year UPSC Mains Question Covering similar theme:

Discuss the strategic significance of the Indian Ocean for India’s security and economic interests. (UPSC CSE 2023)

Why India’s rice production and export strategy requires a rethink

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance

What’s the ongoing story: India has been the world’s largest rice exporter since 2011-12. In 2024-25, its exports of 21.69 million tonnes (mt), according to the US Department of Agriculture, was way above Thailand’s 7.86 mt and Vietnam’s 8.06 mt.

Key Points to Ponder:

— What is the status of rice production in India?

— What are favourable conditions for the production of rice?

— What are the factors behind India emerging as the world’s largest rice producer?

— What are the challenges facing rice production?

— Read about the world’s first genome edited (GE) rice varieties and their characteristics.

— Know about the GI (geographical indications)-protected varieties

Key Takeaways:

— In 2024-25, India also became the world’s biggest rice producer, with its estimated 150 mt output surpassing China’s 145.28 mt. The challenge lies in sustaining this leadership position, from an environmental and financial standpoint.

— Paddy (rice with husk) is a water-guzzling crop. A single irrigation, for covering one acre of land to a depth of 2.5 cm, requires 101,171.5 litres of water.

— For paddy, the water level in the field has to be maintained at about 5 cm for extended periods, primarily for controlling weeds: Water acts as a natural herbicide against the weeds that, unlike paddy plants, cannot survive in submerged conditions.

— The number of irrigations for paddy ranges, depending upon the crop’s duration and planting time, from 20 to over 30… Ergo, for every kg of rice that India ships out, it also indirectly exports 3,000 litres of water.

— In 2023-24 and 2024-25, basmati exports, at 5-6 mt, were less than half the 11-14 mt of non-basmati rice… Basmati rice, thus, fetches more dollars from every kg of grain going out of the country.

— That’s not all. Basmati paddy consumes less water. Non-basmati varieties are mostly transplanted in June at the peak of summer, necessitating irrigating the fields almost daily during this time.

— Basmati varieties are suitable for transplanting in July with the monsoon rains, enabling the crop’s flowering and grain development to happen during October, when day temperatures fall to 30-31°C. The cool climate is ideal for accumulation of 2-acetyl-1-pyrroline, the highly volatile compound contributing to the characteristic fragrance of basmati grains.

— Simply put, basmati exports bring more bang for not only every kg of rice produced, but also for every litre of water consumed.

— India’s basmati rice shipments have risen from 0.6-0.7 mt (worth $400-450 million) annually in the early 2000s to 5-6 mt ($5.8-5.9 billion) during the last two years, thanks largely to the blockbuster varieties bred by IARI scientists. These combine traditional basmati’s unique grain attributes (aroma, non-stickiness and elongation upon cooking) with the higher yields of modern dwarf varieties.

— The total area planted to rice in India’s registered GI region for basmati is around 6.2 million hectares (mh): 3.1 mh in Punjab, 1.3 mh in Haryana, 1.5 mh in western UP, 0.12 mh in Uttarakhand, 0.1 mh in Jammu and 0.05 mh in Himachal Pradesh. Within that, the actual basmati-sown area is just over 2.1 mh, including 0.8 mh each in Punjab and Haryana and 0.5 mh in western UP.

— For basmati, the government can declare a floor price — below which no purchase of paddy from farmers would be allowed in mandi auctions. Basmati’s premium quality, plus the well-developed agricultural produce market infrastructure in Punjab and Haryana, should make this practically enforceable.

— IARI scientists have, more recently, incorporated genes from the wild relatives and landrace cultivars of paddy into their widely-grown Pusa Basmati-1509, 1121 and 1401 varieties.

— These genes, identified through a technique called marker-assisted selection, code for proteins that confer resistance to bacterial leaf blight and rice blast fungal disease. The resultant disease-resistant versions of the same varieties were released in late-2021 as Pusa Basmati-1847, 1885 and 1886 respectively.

— A similar “genetic”, as opposed to “chemical”, approach is now being adopted to address the threats from other diseases (bakanae, false smut and brown spot) and insect pests (stem borer, leaf folder, brown plant hopper and white-backed plant hopper). This entails screening large plant populations from indigenous landraces to identify genes for disease and pest resistance or drought, heat and salinity tolerance traits.

Do You Know:

— Rice crop requires hot and humid conditions, abundant water availability, and alluvial soil (soil formed by the deposition of silt brought by rivers). River flood plains are among the most rice productive regions. In India, rice cultivation is dispersed across different regions.

— In the north-eastern region, the Brahmaputra basin records the highest rice cultivation. In the eastern region, the basins of the Ganga and Mahanadi rivers have the highest intensity of rice cultivation, particularly in states like Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.

— In the southern part, the delta regions of Godavari, Krishna and Cauvery rivers constitute the main areas of rice production, covering Telangana (the Highest among states), Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. Northern rice-producing regions include Haryana, Punjab, while in Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir, low winter temperatures restrict rice cultivation to a period from May-July to September-December.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Why India’s rice production surge raises concerns over food security, sustainability

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:

(4)  “System of Rice Intensification” of cultivation, in which alternate wetting and drying of rice fields is practiced, results in:  (UPSC CSE 2022)

1. Reduced seed requirement

2. Reduced methane production

3. Reduced electricity consumption

Select the correct answer using the code given below:

(a) 1 and 2 only

(b) 2 and 3 only

(c) 1 and 3 only

(d) 1, 2 and 3

Previous year UPSC Mains Question Covering similar theme:

What are the research and developmental achievements in applied biotechnology? How will these achievements help to uplift the poorer sections of society? (UPSC CSE 2021)

EDITORIAL

Our stakes are high in West Asia. Delhi must call for diplomacy, de-escalation

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies-II: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora

What’s the ongoing story: Shashi Tharoor writes: As the war ignited by the missiles striking Tehran on February 28 now enters its seventh day, it’s clear that it has shattered a fragile regional order and plunged the global economy into a state of high-voltage uncertainty.

Key Points to Ponder:

— What are the reasons for the recent attack by the US and Israel on Iran?

— Why is the escalating tension in West Asia a concern for India?

— What is the status of India’s relations with the US, Israel and Iran?

— What do you understand about regime change?

— Understand the political structure of Iran

— Know the history of the Iran-Israel relations

Key Takeaways:

— For India, a country whose energy security and millions of citizens are inextricably linked to the stability of the Gulf, this is not “foreign news”. It is a direct threat to our national interests and our aspirations for growth and development.

— The irony of “Epic Fury” is that its proclaimed objective — denying Iran a nuclear weapon — had, according to Omani mediators, already been achieved through ongoing diplomatic negotiations.

— Just days before the strikes, significant progress had been reported in Geneva, with Iran nearing a deal to abjure nuclear weapons, freeze enrichment and hold zero stockpiles of weapons-grade material, in exchange for structured sanctions relief.

— However, history remains a harsh teacher: Regime change is rarely, if ever, achievable from the air. While modern weaponry may possess the precision to destroy infrastructure, it cannot bomb a new government into existence.

— Destroying a leadership from the air is one thing, building an alternative in a country of 88 million people quite another. The more likely result is either regime reassertion under new personalities…

— The consequences of this action are already bleeding across borders. Iranian retaliation has not been confined to the primary aggressors; strikes have hit neighbouring countries that were not overtly hostile to Tehran.

— These actions, going beyond US bases, have caused tragic casualties among the local and foreign residents of those nations, effectively dragging the entire region into a war they did not seek.

— The economic toll is equally staggering. The closure of regional airspace and the Strait of Hormuz have sent shockwaves through global markets. As a significant portion of the world’s seaborne oil passes through this choke point, prices have spiked — one hopes temporarily — from the pre-war $65 towards $83 per barrel, and insurance premia are soaring.

— Iran is estimated to have enough ballistic missiles for a couple of weeks of fighting, though half its missile launchers are said to have been destroyed and the remainder are not easy to hide from the “eyes in the sky” of modern technology. How much longer the US and Israel can sustain their barrage is uncertain, but one clue is that President Trump speaks of ending the war in four to five weeks.

— For India, the stakes are high. Millions of Indians working in the Gulf now face an uncertain future, while thousands of travellers remain cut off from transit hubs like Dubai, though recent evacuations of stranded passengers have eased the strain. Our domestic priority of affordable oil is undermined, threatening the very growth that fuels our development efforts. India’s call for de-escalation and diplomacy is a necessity.

From the Ideas Page: DIS/AGREE

Post-war Iran could be more revanchist

— Mohammed Ayoob writes: The battle for Iran’s soul has most probably been lost already. Even if all the objectives of the attack on Iran as enumerated by US President Donald Trump are achieved, the endgame in all probability will turn out to be vastly different from that imagined in Washington.

— A major American objective as articulated by Trump was to decimate the leadership of the Islamic Republic to pave the way for regime change. This has been achieved partially.

— The question arises where will this leave Iran, one of the largest and most populous countries in West Asia, strategically situated on the Persian Gulf and commanding the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies pass.

— There are only two possibilities. First, it could leave Iran in chaos with multiple factions fighting over its carcass, especially since there is no organised opposition group that has the effectiveness and legitimacy to take control of the levers of state power and impose its rule over the whole country or at least most of it. Regime change that would bring a pro-American group to power in Tehran does not appear to be a real possibility.

— Second, and the more probable scenario, is that of an Iran rising like a phoenix from the ashes and vowing retribution for the humiliation and pain inflicted upon it. There are several good reasons why this will be the outcome.

— One, Iran’s military and political structure as it currently exists cannot be effectively destroyed by an air campaign alone. It would need hundreds of thousands of American boots on the ground to achieve this goal. This option has never been on the table in Washington as American public opinion, tired of involvement in “forever” wars in West Asia, will not tolerate it.

— Two, Iran is not Iraq. Therefore, the process of regime change as happened in Baghdad cannot be repeated in Tehran. The distinction between Iraq and Iran is fundamental and not limited to the difference in terms of size and population.

— Unlike Iraq, Iran has a long history of statehood going back to pre-Islamic times and has existed as a unified political entity more or less within its current geographical contours at least since the 16th century with the establishment of the Safavid Empire.

— It is true that Iran also has minority populations, especially the Azeris, the Kurds and the Baluch. However, the Azeris, who constitute between 20 and 25 per cent of the country’s population, are well integrated into the Persian core economically and politically and culturally Persianised.

— The Safavids, who laid the foundations of the present-day state of Iran in the 16th century, were Azeris themselves. The Tehran bazaar, the principal economic institution in the capital, is dominated by Azeri businessmen.

— The questions that then arise are (a) who will control the Iranian centre at the end of the air war and (b) will the new rulers of Iran be willing to follow American-Israeli diktats. The successors of the present regime are likely to be hardline military figures, whether from the IRGC or the regular military or both.

— Here the lessons of the aftermath of World War I are instructive. The rise of Adolf Hitler and the Nazis in Germany was a direct consequence of the humiliation and suffering inflicted on the German people by the victorious powers. The Treaty of Versailles and the Allies’ actions to ruthlessly enforce its provisions began the process of German alienation that culminated in the rise of Hitler with disastrous consequences for Europe and the world.

— When suffering crosses the boundaries of tolerance, it produces a reaction that often translates into revanchism regardless of the consequences. Iran is a highly likely candidate for such a reaction. The only beneficiary of this campaign will be Israel because it will make it impossible in the short term for Iran to level the playing field with Israel in terms of nuclear weapons capability.

— In the long term, the United States and its Arab allies will have to deal with an ultranationalist and revanchist Iran bent on avenging the humiliation inflicted upon it by the current air campaign. This is likely to increase the instability and volatility already present in strong measure in West Asia, affecting among other things oil and gas supplies to the rest of the world.

Military success won’t bring stability 

— R Swaminathan writes: In hindsight, the joint attack by the United States and Israel on Iran is not a sudden escalation but the culmination of developments unfolding for nearly a decade, making the conflict inevitable.

— Israel’s 12-day war against Iran in June 2025 exposed profound weaknesses in the latter’s air defence systems. Israeli strikes penetrated Iran with ease, targeting military infrastructure and missile sites, creating conditions for direct US intervention. In Operation Midnight Hammer, the United States dropped bunker-buster bombs on Iranian nuclear facilities.

— This marked the first direct US attack on Iran’s territory. For decades, successive US administrations had refrained from such action, despite the hostage crisis in 1979 when dozens of American diplomats were held captive for more than 400 days, the 1983 Beirut bombing that killed 242 American military personnel, and Iran’s rhetoric, particularly its repeated chants of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel”.

— Iran’s political system is deeply institutionalised, and without American ground forces, an option Trump has not exercised so far, the regime is likely to survive. Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the late Ayatollah Khamenei, is emerging as the frontrunner to become the Supreme Leader.

— Iran has launched numerous missiles and drones against Israel and US positions, but most have been intercepted… In contrast, destruction within Iran has been extensive. More than 800 people have been killed, over 2,000 military targets have been struck, 17 Iranian naval vessels have been sunk, including a warship in international waters off Sri Lanka.

— Past interventions in Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan offer sobering reminders that military success does not translate into lasting political stability. The hope is that good sense will prevail to end the hostilities soon.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Expert Explains | Iran agreed to unprecedented terms. So why did US attack?

📍Message in sinking of Iranian warship

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:

(5) The term “two-state solution” is sometimes mentioned in the news in the context of the affairs of (UPSC CSE 2018)

(a) China

(b) Israel

(c) Iraq

(d) Yemen

Previous year UPSC Mains Question Covering similar theme:

“India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (UPSC CSE 2018)

ALSO IN NEWS
What are ‘gravity bombs’ which US is planning to shift to in Iran?	On Wednesday, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that Iranian air defences had been severely degraded over the course of the last four days and that the US military would begin to deploy 500-pound, 1,000-pound, and 2,000-pound precision gravity bombs. A gravity bomb, historically known as a “free-fall” bomb, is an unpowered munition. Unlike a cruise missile like the Tomahawk, it lacks an internal engine. Once released, its trajectory is dictated entirely by gravity, aerodynamics, and the speed and altitude of the dropping aircraft.
Strait of Hormuz shut, a few tankers with Russia crude oil divert to India	With the massive disruption in vessel passage from the Strait of Hormuz due to the West Asia conflict, there are some early signs that India could be increasing its intake of Russian crude. Two crude oil tankers laden with Russian oil, which were earlier showing East Asia as their destination, arrived at Indian ports on Thursday, as per ship tracking data. Another tanker, while still showing Singapore as its destination, appears to be heading towards India’s west coast instead. India had, in recent months, cut down significantly on its oil imports from Russia amid trade negotiations with the US.

 

PRELIMS ANSWER KEY

1. (c)  2. (b)  3. (d)   4. (d)  5. (b)

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