UPSC Key: Global ocean conveyor belt, White-bellied Heron and Compensatory afforestation

Key Points to Ponder:

• What is the role of Governor after completion of assembly elections and results?

• What is the difference between ‘majority’ and the ‘single largest’ party in the elections?

• Who makes the government-‘ a majority party ‘ or the ‘single largest’ party?

• How governor is important in this scenario?

• Can Governor delay the swearing-in of leader of a ‘single largest’ party as Chief Minister?

• Can Governor ask to submit proof of support from the majority mark MLAs for the government formation in a state?

• What is the precedence set?

• Article 164 of the Constitution says what?

• What is floor test and why it is required especially for the government formation?

• What is happening in the Tamil Nadu?

• What is the standard legislative procedure in state legislature?

• How powerful is a Governor?

• Office of Governor-know the historical background

• Why has the Governor’s role and powers recently become a matter of contention?

• What is the relationship between the Governor and the state government?

• Various attempts were made to understand the role of the governor to strengthening centre-state relations-Can you name those committees and their recommendations?

• Administrative Reforms Commission of 1968, the Rajamanar Committee of 1969, the Sarkaria commission of 1988 and Punchhi Commission-What were their recommendations in the context of role of Governor?

• The Sarkaria Commission, set up in 1983 to look into Centre-state relations, proposed certain points for the
selection of Governors-Know them in detail

• What Punchhi Committee, constituted in 2007 on Centre-state relations said on selection the Governor?

• The Punchhi Committee recommended deleting the “Doctrine of Pleasure” from the Constitution-What is “Doctrine of Pleasure”?

• What Supreme Court of India said about the Governor’s role?

• How things changed after the S.R. Bommai case ,1994?

Key Takeaways:

• Conventionally, the single largest party stakes its claim and is invited to form the government, and prove its majority on the floor of the house. However, Governor Arlekar is learnt to have asked Vijay to submit proof of support from at least 118 legislators — the majority mark in the 234-member Assembly. TVK currently has 108 MLAs; with Congress’s five-member support, the number rises to 113.

• The single-largest party convention has been reiterated several times in judgments of the Supreme Court. Given the fraught political nature of the Raj Bhavans, opposition parties have sought the Court’s intervention in staking a claim to form the government.

• In 2018, the Congress party and JD(S) knocked on the Supreme Court’s doors at midnight after Governor Vajubhai Vala scheduled the swearing-in of B S Yediyurappa as the Karnataka CM. The Congress and JD(S) had announced a post-poll alliance though the Governor invited the BJP, the single largest party, to form the government. The Governor had also given the BJP-led government 15 days to prove its majority on the floor of the house.

• However, then CJI Dipak Misra heard the case through the night but refused to stay the swearing in. A day later, the Supreme Court also advanced the floor test to 36 hours after allegations of horse-trading and locking up of MLAs in resorts were brought to the court’s notice. Ultimately, the BJP-led government failed the floor test, and the Congress-led alliance formed the government.

• In May 2016, involving a similar crisis in Uttarakhand as well, the SC had underlined the floor test as the “ultimate” option and directed then Congress CM Harish Rawat to prove majority on the floor of the house.

Do You Know

• Article 164 of the Constitution says the Chief Minister shall be appointed by the Governor and the other ministers shall be appointed by the Governor on the advice of the Chief Minister, and that the ministers shall hold office during the pleasure of the Governor.

• To exercise this power, the Governor invites the party that has the people’s mandate and stakes a claim to form the government. The Governor then fixes a time to administer the oath of office to the Chief Minister designate. A pro-tem speaker is appointed, usually the senior-most legislator among the elected, to administer the oath to the MLAs and conduct a floor test.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍By keeping the Vijay and TVK waiting, the Governor forgets that people, MLAs make a government, not his discretion

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
1) Consider the following statements regarding constitutional provisions in India: (UPSC CSE, 2025)
I. The Constitution of India explicitly mentions situations where the Governor of a State can act in his/her discretion.
II. The President of India can, on his/her own, reserve a Bill passed by a State Legislature for consideration, even without it being forwarded by the Governor of the concerned State.
Which of the above statements is/are correct?
(a) I only
(b) II only
(c) Both I and II
(d) Neither I nor II

2) Which one of the following suggested that the Governor should be an eminent person from outside the State and should be a detached figure without intense political links or should not have taken part in politics in the recent past? (UPSC CSE, 2019)
(a) First Administrative Reforms Commission (1966)
(b) Rajamannar Committee (1969)
(c) Sarkaria Commission (1983)
(d) National Commission to Review the Working of the Constitution (2000)

Tyranny of the elected: Top court on delay over CeC law

Preliminary Examination: Indian Polity and Governance-Constitution, Political System, Panchayati Raj, Public Policy, Rights Issues, etc.

Main Examination: General Studies II: Appointment to various Constitutional posts, powers, functions and responsibilities of various Constitutional Bodies.

What’s the ongoing story: The Supreme Court on Thursday (May 7) described Parliament’s decades-long delay in enacting a law for appointments to the Election Commission, until it was directed to do so in 2023, as “tyranny of the elected”.

Key Points to Ponder:

• How are Election Commissioners appointed?

• What was the Supreme Court’s 2023 Anoop Baranwal ruling?

• What the 2023 law on EC appointments said?

• Why Chief Election Commissioner and Other Election Commissioners (Appointment, Conditions of Service and Term of Office) Bill, 2023 is in news these days?

• What did Supreme Court say now?

• The Supreme Court described Parliament’s decades-long delay in enacting a law for appointments to the Election Commission, until it was directed to do so in 2023, as “tyranny of the elected”-what have you understood by the given statement?

• Who appoints Chief Election Commissioner of India?

• How Chief Election Commissioner of India and other Election Commissioners are appointed?

• Election Commission of India and Article 324 of the Constitution-Know in detail

• The independent and impartial functioning of the Election Commission-How it is ensured?

• Election Commission of India- Powers and Functions

• Chief Election Commissioner and the two other Election Commissioners have equal powers-True or False?

• In case of difference of opinion amongst the Chief election commissioner and/or two other election commissioners, the matter is decided by the Supreme Court of India-Right or Wrong?

• In March 2023, the Supreme Court stepped in to check what it called the “pernicious effects of the exclusive power being vested with the Executive to make appointment to the Election Commission” and ordered something-can you recall that?

Key Takeaways:

• A bench of Justices Dipankar Datta and Satish Chandra Sharma was hearing challenges to the Chief Election Commissioner and Other Election Commissioners (Appointment, Conditions of Service and Term of Office) Act, 2023.

• This law, introduced to address the legislative gap, came under legal challenge in 2024 as it removed the Chief Justice of India (CJI) from the selection panel for Election Commissioners, replacing the CJI with a Union Cabinet minister appointed by the Prime Minister.

• In fact, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi met in February 2025 to appoint current CEC Gyanesh Kumar, Gandhi gave a dissent note, asking the government to defer appointments until the SC decided on the petitions challenging the new appointment process.

• In its March 2023 ruling in Anoop Baranwal vs Union of India, the Supreme Court laid down an interim process for appointing Election Commissioners until Parliament enacted a law on the issue. It said that the President shall make CEC and EC appointments on the advice of a three-member committee “consisting of the Prime Minister, the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, and in case no leader of the Opposition is available, the leader of the largest opposition party in the Lok Sabha in terms of numerical strength and the Chief Justice of India.”
The decision was rooted in the need to ensure that elections are conducted fairly and legally, with an independent body essential to insulate the democratic process from executive interference. The bench referred to Constituent Assembly debates for the drafting of the Constitution, recalling B R Ambedkar’s warning that those in charge of elections should not come “under the thumb of the executive.” The court held that the EC is like a “guardian of democracy”, and that the individuals overseeing elections must act impartially and honestly.

• The Anoop Baranwal judgment also expanded the understanding of voting rights. The bench held that the right to vote flows from the Constitution and that casting a vote is a part of freedom of expression guaranteed under Article 19(1)(a).
The court then made what it called a “fervent appeal” to Parliament to strengthen the Election Commission institutionally and financially. It asked the government to consider creating an independent secretariat and charging the commission’s expenditure to the Consolidated Fund of India, warning against situations where the executive could indirectly influence the poll body by “starving it” of its resources.

• Quick Recall-In March 2023, the Supreme Court stepped in to check what it called the “pernicious effects of the exclusive power being vested with the Executive to make appointment to the Election Commission” and ordered that the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) and Election Commissioners (ECs) shall be appointed on the advice of a committee comprising the Prime Minister, Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha and Chief Justice of India. Ruling on petitions seeking an independent mechanism to appoint the CEC and ECs, a five-judge Constitution Bench presided by Justice K M Joseph said where no Leader of Opposition is available, the committee will include the leader of the largest Opposition party in Lok Sabha in terms of numerical strength.

Do You Know

• Article 324(2) of the Constitution states that Election Commissioners should be appointed in a manner “subject to the provisions of any law made in that behalf by Parliament.”

• While the Election Commission (Conditions of Service of Election Commissioners and Transaction of Business) Act, 1991, regulated salaries, tenure and the commission’s functioning, it did not cover appointments.

• In the absence of such a law, appointments remained under the executive’s domain. The Union Law Ministry would prepare a panel, suggesting names to the PM, whose recommendation would go to the President. Over time, ECs were almost always drawn from the bureaucracy, and the senior-most EC would usually become the CEC.

• In 2022, petitioners argued before the Supreme Court (Anoop Baranwal vs Union of India) that this effectively left appointments in the hands of the government of the day, compromising the independence of the body tasked with conducting elections.

• During the hearing of the case in November 2022, former IAS officer Arun Goel was appointed as an Election Commissioner — the post had been vacant since May that year. The court said Goel’s appointment left it “mystified”, given that the entire process was completed in a day. It also questioned the legislature’s silence on the selection of the CEC and ECs.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍PM Modi, Amit Shah & Rahul Gandhi meet to appoint new Chief Election Commissioner: How the appointment process works, why it was changed

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
3) Consider the following statements: (UPSC CSE, 2017)
1. The Election Commission of India is a five-member body.
2. Union Ministry of Home Affairs decides the election schedule for the conduct of both general elections and bye-elections.
3. Election Commission resolves the disputes relating to splits/mergers of recognised political parties.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 2 only
(c) 2 and 3 only
(d) 3 only

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
📍 Discuss the role of the Election Commission of India in the light of the evolution of the Model Code of Conduct. (UPSC CSE, GS2, 2022)

The Second Page

546 people die daily in traffic accidents; road deaths account for 88%: NCRB report

Preliminary Examination: Economic and Social Development-Sustainable Development, Poverty, Inclusion, Demographics, Social Sector Initiatives, etc.

Mains Examination: 

• General Studies II: Issues relating to development and management of Social Sector/Services relating to Health, Education, Human Resources.

• General Studies III: Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways etc.

What’s the ongoing story: In India, on average, 546 people die every day in traffic-related accidents. According to the latest report by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), 1.99 lakh people died in traffic accidents in 2024, an increase of 0.79 per cent compared to 2023, when 1.98 lakh people lost their lives.

Key Points to Ponder:

• Road Accidents in India-Know Broad Profile of Road Accidents

• Why Road Safety is must in India?

• What position does India have in terms of Road safety?

• Road accidents are multi-causal phenomenon and are the result of an interplay of various factors-What are those factors?

• What are the Initiatives Related to Road Safety?

• What actions are being taken by the Supreme Court of India in the matter of Road Safety?

• What are the Initiatives Related to Road Safety at national as well at international level?

• What is ‘Brasilia Declaration on Road Safety’?

• What is the Significance of Road Safety in India?

Key Takeaways:

• Traffic accidents include road accidents, railway accidents, incidents on railway tracks or railway premises, and accidents at railway crossings. These cases not only have serious repercussions on the victims’ families, but also derail India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth as they affect smooth traffic flow. The socio-economic costs of road crashes alone amount to around 3.14 per cent of India’s GDP.

• According to the report, the number of traffic accidents increased from 4.91 lakh in 2023 to 4.95 lakh in 2024, with 4.52 lakh people injured in 2024. The top three states in terms of fatalities are Uttar Pradesh (27,071), Tamil Nadu (20,390) and Maharashtra (19,475), which account for 13.6 per cent, 10.2 per cent and 9.8 per cent of total deaths in traffic accidents, respectively, and collectively account for 33.6 per cent of all traffic deaths in 2024.

• The road-wise classification of accident data shows that while national highways have a share of only 2.1 per cent of the total road length in India (1.32 lakh km out of 63.3 lakh km roads), they account for 29.8 per cent of total road accidents. State highways reported 22 per cent of road accidents, with other roads accounting for 48.2 per cent of the total road accidents.

Do You Know

• In the NCRB, traffic deaths are counted as part of the larger umbrella of accidental deaths. The report shows that the traffic deaths account for 42.6 per cent of the total. This is followed by sudden deaths (16.2 per cent), miscellaneous causes (15.9 per cent), drowning (8.6 per cent), falls (5.7 per cent), poisoning (4.6 per cent), electrocution (3.4 per cent), accidental fire (1.3 per cent) and forces of nature (1.7 per cent). Out of these, only deaths due to natural events like cyclones, floods, lightning, etc., are often beyond human control; the others are preventable.

• The report reveals that of the 1.99 lakh traffic-related deaths recorded in 2024, 1.75 lakh (88 per cent) were due to road accidents. No railway accident was reported during the period. However, 17,029 people died after falling from trains or colliding with people on railway tracks, while 5,384 lost their lives in incidents on railway premises, like explosions and fires. And 1,888 deaths were recorded in accidents at railway crossings.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Knowledge Nugget: Road Accidents in India — Causes, reports and UPSC relevance

Nation

For new mine, Rajasthan PSU seeks to cut 4.48L trees in Chhattisgarh forest

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Main Examination: General Studies III: Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation, environmental impact assessment.

What’s the ongoing story: Rajasthan’s state-owned electricity producer Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam Limited (RVUNL) has sought to divert 1,742.6 hectares of prime forest and fell 4.48 lakh trees in central India’s green lung Hasdeo-Arand forest for its Kente Extension coal mine in Chhattisgarh’s Surguja district. It has proposed compensatory afforestation on existing forest land elsewhere in the state, official documents show.

Key Points to Ponder:

• Map Work-Hasdeo Arand forest

• Why Hasdeo Arand is referred to as the “lungs of Chhattisgarh”?

• What is the significance of Hasdeo in terms of ecology and environment?

• Captive use of coal refers to what?

• What is compensatory afforestation?

• The Compensatory Afforestation Fund Act, 2016 (CAF Act)-know key highlights

• “The Hasdeo mining controversy reflects the larger conflict between energy security and environmental sustainability”—Discuss.

• Do you think that the compensatory afforestation is effective tool for ecological restoration?

• What is the ecological and socio-economic significance of the Hasdeo Arand forest region?

Key Takeaways:

• RVUNL was allotted the coal block in October 2015 for captive use of coal at its Chabbra coal plant and Suratgarh coal plant. Adani Group is the developer and operator of the coal mine.

• The Forest Advisory Committee (FAC) of the Environment Ministry, which grants approval for diversion, will appraise the PSU’s proposal.

• The Parsa and Parsa East Kete Basan (PEKB) open cast mines are already operational in this high-conservation zone forest, which was once earmarked as a no-go zone during the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) era.

• Under the Van (Sanrakshan Evam Samvardhan) Adhiniyam, 1980, non-forest land is the first preference to compensate for the loss of a forest, and use of degraded forest or other types of land for afforestation has to be justified. Further, in case of non-availability of non-forest land, compensatory afforestation can be raised over revenue forest lands, that is land recorded as forest in the records but not notified as forest under any law and not managed by the forest department. Revenue lands, orange forest lands fall in this category. They have to be mutated and transferred in the name of the state forest department.

• In March, the Ministry had flagged that compensatory afforestation has been proposed over forest land and Orange (or revenue forest) land in 81 patches covering 3,236.08 hectares, out of which 1,051 hectares is classified as moderately dense forest as part of the project.

Do You Know

• Captive use of coal refers to mining coal specifically for an organization’s own consumption—primarily for steel, power, and cement production—rather than for open-market sale.

• The Hasdeo Arand is referred to as the “lungs of Chhattisgarh”, with a wealth of biodiversity. According to the Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education (ICFRE), Hasdeo Arand is the “largest un-fragmented forests in Central India consisting of pristine Sal (Shorea robusta) and teak forests.”
The Hasdeo-Arand Coalfield (HAC) covers an area of 1,879.6 sqkm, spanning three districts of Sarguja, Korba and Surajpur, in the northern tribal belt of Chhattisgarh.

• As per a 2021 report by the Wildlife Institute of India (WII), nine species in HAC have special protection under schedule I of the Wildlife Protection Act, 1972. These include Elephant, Leopard, Sloth Bear, Indian Grey Wolf, Honey Badger, Four-Horned Antelope, Indian Pangolin, Giant squirrel, and Rusty spotted cat. There are 92 species of birds in Hasdeo and 25 different mammals,16 types of snakes. Its also a habitat as well as a corridor for elephants and a corridor for tigers.

• According to the ICFRE in 2021, there are 640 floral species, 128 medicinal plants and 40 timber-yielding species of plants.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍What is the Hasdeo Arand mining issue, and why villagers clashed with the police

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
4) Consider the following statements: (UPSC CSE, 2019)
1. As per law, the Compensatory Afforestation Fund Management and Planning Authority exists at both National and State levels.
2. People’s participation is mandatory in the compensatory afforestation programmes carried out under the Compensatory Afforestation Fund Act, 2016.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 only
(b) 2 only
(c) Both 1 and 2
(d) Neither 1 nor 2

Proposal for Arunachal’s Kalai-II hydel project skips mentioning ‘endangered bird habitat’

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Main Examination: General Studies III: Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation, environmental impact assessment.

What’s the ongoing story: A Union Environment Ministry expert panel has recommended environmental clearance (EC) for the 1,200-MW Kalai-II hydroelectric project on Lohit River in Arunachal Pradesh’s Anjaw even as environmentalists and project-affected persons flagged glaring omissions about the presence of the critically-endangered white-bellied heron bird in the Lohit River Basin from the proposal’s environmental impact assessment (EIA) report.

Key Points to Ponder:

• White-bellied Heron-what you know about the same?

• Where is White-bellied Heron found in India?

• In which category does white-bellied heron bird comes?

• The Kalai-II hydroelectric project and White-bellied Heron-how they are connected?

• Map Work-Lohit river, Eastern Himalayan region

• What is Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)?

• Do you think that Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) helped in safeguarding ecologically sensitive regions in India?

• What are the challenges posed by large infrastructure projects in the Eastern Himalayan region?

Key Takeaways:

• In 2020, the EAC had itself sought a detailed conservation plan for the Heron species while extending clearance for the 1,750 MW Lower Demwe project, also proposed on the Lohit River.

• As per official minutes, the Centre’s EAC on river valley and hydroelectric projects recommended environmental clearance for the Kalai-II hydel project in its December 19 meeting. The EIA report was prepared by WAPCOS Ltd, a government enterprise and an accredited EIA consultant.

• A day before the EAC’s meeting, Soblam Malo from Anjaw’s Chengung village, and Assam-based environmentalist Bimal Gogoi wrote to the panel highlighting the alleged oversight in the EIA report while seeking a prior assessment of the project’s impact on the bird species.

• Gogoi said the EIA report “failed to make even a single mention of the under-threat species” despite the “project-affected area being contiguous habitat with recent records of the bird in the Lohit River basin, including Kamlang Tiger Reserve.” Gogoi added that “surprisingly” Kamlang Tiger Reserve was only recorded as a sanctuary in the EIA report.

• Rohit Naniwadekar, scientist, Nature Conservation Foundation, who has carried out field research on the species in the Namdapha Tiger Reserve said the white-bellied heron prefers free-flowing riverine habitats with low disturbance, and predominantly depends on fish found in the river rapids. “In Arunachal Pradesh, their population is found in Lohit, Anjaw, and Changlang districts, including in Kamlang and Namdapha tiger reserves. We do not completely understand the causes behind the dip in their population and in Namdapha, despite relatively little disturbance to its habitat,” he said.

• “While the IUCN Red list suggests there are less than 250 birds in the wild, experts speculate there might be only about 60 birds left in the wild, with 4-5 breeding pairs in Bhutan and fewer in eastern Arunachal Pradesh,” he added.

Do You Know

• The report’s avian-fauna chapter that records a total of 28 species belonging to 19 families in the study area misses out on making any mention of the white-bellied heron, a schedule-I (highest protection) species under the Wildlife Protection Act.

• The bird is critically endangered, as per the red list of the International Union on Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The bird’s presence has been recorded both, upstream and downstream, of the Kalai-II project, as per independent researchers, and past records of the Arunachal Forest Department.

• The white-bellied heron nesting sites in Walong and Namdapha are also recorded in the June 2023 edition of Indian Birds, a journal of South Asian Ornithology. The journal article noted the bird count has rapidly declined due to habitat loss, hunting, human disturbances, while older conservation strategy documents have also noted dams and collisions with power lines as threats.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍In Arunachal’s white-bellied heron habitat, Kalai-II project gets nod

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
5) With reference to India’s biodiversity, Ceylon frogmouth, Coppersmith barbet, Gray-chinned miniyet and White-throated redstart are (UPSC CSE, 2020)
(a) Birds
(b) Primates
(c) Reptiles
(d) Amphibians

6) Consider the following statements: (UPSC CSE, 2017)
1. In India, the Himalayas are spread over five States only.
2. Western Ghats are spread over five States only.
3. Pulicat Lake is spread over two States only.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 3 only
(c) 2 and 3 only
(d) 1 and 3 only

7) If you travel through the Himalayas, you are likely to see which of the following plants naturally growing there? (UPSC CSE, 2014)
1. Oak
2. Rhododendron
3. Sandal wood
Select the correct answer using the code given below:
(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 3 only
(c) 1 and 3 only
(d) 1, 2 and 3

Previous year UPSC mains Question Covering similar theme:
📍What role do environmental NGOs and activists play in influencing Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) outcomes for major projects in India? Cite four examples with all important details. (UPSC CSE, GS3, 2024)

Explained

In potential collapse of a key ocean current, consequences for world and India

Preliminary Examination: Indian and World Geography-Physical, Social, Economic Geography of India and the World.

Main Examination: General Studies I: Salient features of world’s physical geography.

What’s the ongoing story: Scientists are increasingly alarmed about the stability of a vast system of ocean currents in the Atlantic, after new research suggested it could weaken far more severely than previously thought.

Key Points to Ponder:

• What is Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)?

• Why are scientists warning of a “tipping point”?

• What is ocean current?

• What are the types of Ocean Currents?

• What are the major ocean currents?

• What is the thermohaline circulation or the global ocean conveyor belt?

• What is happening to the global conveyor belt?

• Cold Currents and warm currents-know in detail

• What is the impact of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on regional climates, fishing and environment?

Key Takeaways:

• The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which regulates climate across much of the globe, may slow by up to 59% by 2100, with potentially devastating consequences for weather systems as far away as the Indian subcontinent.

• The findings have particular significance for India, where hundreds of millions of people depend on the summer monsoon for their agricultural livelihoods and water supplies.

• Though the AMOC is in the Atlantic, its breakdown would trigger chaos in the Pacific.
El Niño is a periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean that disrupts global weather. Because global ocean currents and wind patterns are deeply interconnected, a sluggish AMOC traps heat in the southern hemisphere and leaves the North Pacific cooler.

• This throws off the delicate temperature balance that drives El Niño. Studies suggest a weaker AMOC will make El Niño events more unpredictable and extreme. For context, recent powerful El Niños (like those in 2015-16 and 2023-24) caused massive worldwide disruptions, triggering droughts in the Americas and suppressing rainfall over South Asia.

• For India, an AMOC collapse is more than a distant oceanic event, as it is a direct threat to food security. The Indian summer monsoon, which is the backbone of the country’s agriculture and economy, relies on specific global heat distributions. When the Atlantic conveyor slows down, less heat travels north. This shift pulls the planet’s tropical rain belt southward, away from the Indian subcontinent.

Do You Know

• Think of the Earth’s oceans as having a massive, invisible conveyor belt. In the Atlantic Ocean, this system is scientifically known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

• Warm, salty surface water from the tropics flows north towards Greenland. As it reaches the freezing Arctic, the water cools, becomes denser, and sinks several kilometres into the deep ocean. It then drifts back south as a cold deep-water current before eventually rising to the surface to warm up and restart the loop.
This slow machinery moves vast amounts of heat across the globe. To put its pace in perspective, a single cubic metre of water takes about 1,000 years to complete the journey. It is the reason Europe has a mild climate, and it heavily influences rainfall in Africa, the Americas, and Asia.

• The conveyor belt relies on a delicate balance of ocean temperature and salt levels. However, human-induced climate change is melting Arctic ice at an alarming rate, dumping massive amounts of fresh water into the North Atlantic. Because fresh water is lighter and less salty, it does not sink easily. This is acting like a brake on the entire AMOC system.

• While past studies estimated a 15% slowdown over the last 50 years, new research using real-time ocean measurements projects a much sharper decline, potentially weakening the currents by up to 59% by 2100.

• This matters because the AMOC is a “climate tipping point”. Just like a chair tilted past its balancing point, once the AMOC crosses a certain threshold, it could irreversibly collapse into a new, sluggish state. Scientists debate the exact timeline, though some warn it could happen as early as this century. If it does, the consequences would be catastrophic, triggering extreme sea-level rise in North America and severe weather disruptions globally.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood: What a new study says

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
8) What explains the eastward flow of the equatorial counter-current (UPSC CSE, 2015)
(a) The Earth’s rotation on its axis
(b) Convergence of the two equatorial currents
(c) Difference in salinity, of water
(d) Occurrence of the’ belt of calm near the equator

9) The most important fishing grounds of the world are found in the regions where (UPSC CSE, 2013)
(a) warm and cold atmospheric currents meet
(b) rivers drain out large amounts of fresh water into the sea
(c) warm and cold oceanic currents meet
(d) continental shelf is undulating

10) Consider the following factors: (UPSC CSE, 2012)
1. Rotation of the Earth
2. Air pressure and wind
3. Density of ocean water
4. Revolution of the earth
Which of the above factors influence the ocean currents?
(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 1, 2 and 3 only
(c) 1 and 4 only
(d) 2, 3 and 4 only

Previous year UPSC mains Question Covering similar theme:
📍How do ocean currents and water masses differ in their impacts on marine life and the coastal environment? Give suitable examples. (UPSC CSE, GS1, 2019)
📍 Explain the factors responsible for the origin of ocean currents. How do they influence regional climates, fishing, and navigation? (UPSC CSE, GS1, 2015)

 

PRELIMS ANSWER KEY

1.(a)  2.(c)  3.(d)  4.(a)  5.(a)  6.(b)  7.(a)  8.(b)  9.(c)  10.(b)

  

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