UPSC Key: Bharat Forecasting System, World’s fourth-largest economy and Indus Waters treaty

Key Points to Ponder:

• What is the Jal Jeevan Mission?

• Jal Jeevan Mission comes under which Ministry?

• What is the issue highlighted in Jal Jeevan Mission ?

• What is the funding pattern of Jal Jeevan Mission?

• Is the Jal Jeevan Mission a centrally sponsored scheme?

• What is the issue highlighted by Expenditure Secretary-led panel?

• Why Expenditure Secretary-led panel proposed a 46 per cent cut in the Centre’s funding assistance to the Jal Shakti Ministry’s demand for four years ending December 2028?

• What are the factors which lead to the increment of per tap connection cost under the Jal Jeevan Mission from ₹30,000 to ₹1,37,500?

• How does Jal Jeevan Mission work?

• How Jal Jeevan Mission helps in empowering women?

• Jal Jeevan Mission (Urban) and Jal Jeevan Mission (Rural)-Compare and Contrast

• How important is the Jal Jeevan mission?

• What is Expenditure Finance Committee?

• What are the factors which constrains utilisation of Funds in Social Sector Schemes?

• What Steps/measures are needed for improving fund utilization capacity especially in schemes like Jal Jeevan Mission?

• How Funds are Allocated for Social Sector Schemes?

Key Takeaways:

• Uttar Pradesh, which accounts for 6.37% of the JJM schemes or projects approved across the country but 18.56% of the total cost (Rs 1.54 lakh crore of the total Rs 8.29 lakh crore), has deputed 75 nodal officers, one for each district in the state. These officers were rushed from Lucknow to the district headquarters.

• In an order issued on May 19 — the day the Centre announced that 100 teams of Central Nodal Officers will conduct ground inspection — Amrita Soni, Chief Staff Officer in the Uttar Pradesh Chief Secretary Office, asked the state nodal officers to reach their respective districts by May 23 evening.

• Over the next two days, May 24 and 25, the nodal officers conducted “physical verification” of the JJM works in their assigned districts. They are required to submit their reports to the state government by Monday, as the central teams leave for their assigned districts.

• The Uttar Pradesh government’s nodal officers were handed a questionnaire containing five questions. They are: 1. At present, is drinking water being supplied directly from the tubewell or through the overhead tank? 2. How many houses were to be given water connection (target)? 3. How many houses have been given water connections? 4. Are all houses getting water 2 hours in the morning and 2 hours in the evening? 5. If not, why?

• In addition to the JJM works, the Uttar Pradesh government has asked its nodal officers to also conduct physical verification of Gau Ashrayasthal (cowsheds) and two works of cost over Rs 50 crore.

• In Jammu and Kashmir, a House committee headed by National Conference member Hasnain Masoodi held its first meeting on May 22. The committee was constituted by Assembly Speaker Abdul Rahim Rather in March this year “to probe into the alleged irregularities” in the JJM implementation in the Union Territory.

• The initiatives taken by the Centre and the states to review the works under JJM are much-awaited measures to bring in transparency and ensure accountability in the implementation of the scheme. This will also pave the way for early approval of the funding for the second phase (until 2028) of JJM.

Do You Know:

• The Jal Jeevan Mission, launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on August 15, 2019, aimed to provide tap connections to about 16 crore rural households to achieve saturation coverage by December end 2024. But only 75 per cent of the target could be achieved over five years, and the remaining 4 crore tap connections are now proposed to be installed by extending the mission by four years till December 31, 2028.

• In 2019 when the ‘Har Ghar Jal’ programme was launched, the EFC had fixed the Jal Jeevan Mission’s outlay at Rs 3.6 lakh crore against the Jal Shakti Ministry’s demand of Rs 7.89 lakh crore. Information available on the mission dashboard, however, shows states approved schemes worth Rs 8.07 lakh crore during the five years (2019-2024).

• This sharp escalation in costs probably led the EFC to curtail the outlay and reduce the Central share to the mission. Sources said the Jal Shakti Ministry justified the proposed cost of Rs 8.07 lakh crore for the approved scheme (which includes Rs 7.68 lakh crore of works awarded and Rs 38,940 crore of works at award stage) during the EFC meeting.

• According to the DEA, nearly 12 crore rural households were provided tap connections since 2019. The Centre and states spent Rs 3.60 lakh crore (Centre — Rs 2.08 lakh crore and states — Rs 1.52 lakh crore) for this. Now, the DDWS has projected the mission to cost an additional Rs 5.5 lakh crore (Centre — Rs 2.79 lakh crore, states — Rs 2.71 lakh crore) for providing tap connections to 4 crore households.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Justify increase in cost of tap to `1,37,500 from `30,000, says Finance

Previous year UPSC mains Question Covering similar theme:
📍What is water stress? How and why does it differ regionally in India? (2019)

EXPRESS NETWORK

IMD to receive high resolution Bharat Forecast System today

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

What’s the ongoing story: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) will soon adopt the Bharat Forecast System (BFS) which offers the highest resolution among weather models. This move will significantly enhance the IMD’s weather forecasting capabilities, especially with respect to extreme rainfall and cyclones.

Key Points to Ponder:

• Bharat Forecasting System (BFS)-Know about the same

• What is the Bharat Forecasting System (BFS)?

• Who developed the Bharat Forecasting System?

• What powers the Bharat Forecasting System have?

• How will the new system help weather predictions?

• How does weather impact India’s economy?

• What is the weather forecast system?

• What is the India Meteorological Department?

• India Meteorological Department-Know its role, responsibilities and function

• Analyse the impact of India’s diverse geography on the forecasting challenges faced by IMD.

Key Takeaways:

• On Monday, the BFS will be officially handed over to IMD in New Delhi. IMD will operationalise the model starting this monsoon season. Developed by Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), the BFS offers a spatial resolution of 6km x 6km, making it the first weather model with such high resolution. In fact, weather modellers have also been working to fine-tune this resolution to 3km and 1km.

• Globally, weather forecasters run multiple models by keying-in the latest atmospheric and/or oceanic initial conditions as data feeds. They use high performance computers to run these models which in turn provide output, whose interpretation is issued as weather forecasts.

• Currently, the IMD operates Coupled Forecasting System (CFS) developed under the Monsoon Mission Project. The original model framework of CFS was developed by US-based National Center for Environmental Prediction. For Indian use, it was modified to provide forecasts for the Indian monsoon region for different spatial and temporal resolutions. In addition, it also runs the Global Forecasting System (GFS), which a coupled model (factors-in ocean and atmospheric parameters), for issuing the weather forecasts at time scales ranging from a few hours, to five days, a month to a season.

• “The BFS is India’s first indigenously built weather model. It is a deterministic model, that is, it will be a single-model based output,” said Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, senior weather modeller formerly with IITM.

Do You Know:

• According to IMD website, In the year 1875, the Government of India established the India Meteorological Department, bringing all meteorological work in the country under a central authority. A disastrous tropical cyclone struck Calcutta in 1864 and this was followed by failures of the monsoon rains in 1866 and 1871. Mr. H. F. Blanford was appointed Meteorological Reporter to the Government of India. The first Director General of Observatories was Sir John Eliot who was appointed in May 1889 at Calcutta headquarters. The headquarters of IMD were later shifted to Shimla, then to Poona (now Pune) and finally to New Delhi.

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) will complete 150 years of service on Wednesday (January 15).

• In 2024, when IMD stepped into its 150th year, it launched Mission Mausam: a dedicated program to enhance the Met department’s weather observational network on land, ocean, and poles along with upgrading its weather model precision.
—Under its first phase, planned till 2026, with an economic outlay of Rs 2,000 crore, there are major plans to ramp up the observational network, informed IMD.

• In the decade gone by, IMD said, forecast accuracy of all types of severe weather events jumped by 50 per cent in comparison to 2014. If in 2017, the forecast accuracy was one day in advance, the same today is five days in advance, giving ample time for administrators and disaster managers to plan rescue and rehabilitation.

• In case of forecasting the development of cyclones, the IMD has a mastery of doing it a week in advance versus 1-3 days in 2014. Among other improvements in the accuracy (up to 24 hours) are the forecast of heavy rainfall (about 80 per cent), thunderstorms (about 86 per cent), heat waves and cold waves (about 88 per cent).

• Weather data remains the core for improving forecasting and the Met department plans to fill the gaps, especially in areas where access has been inherently difficult.

• In its sesquicentennial year, the IMD introduced Panchayat Mausam Sewa, Mausam gram aimed towards ‘Har Har Mausam Har Ghar Mausam’, and indigenous decision support system – bringing hydrometeorological as well as socio-economic data together for better impact-based forecasting services and expanded coverage of radar for better monitoring and nowcasting. From 13 doppler radars in 2013, IMD today operates 39 and has plans to add more radars in the coming two years with a vision to take it to over 50 under Mission Mausam.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Role of IMD is going to be more critical: Rijiju

📍Why India Meteorological Department (IMD) needs an upgrade, with climate change impacting weather

THE IDEAS PAGE

Cultivating a global farm

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies III: Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization, of resources, growth, development and employment.

What’s the ongoing story: Ashok Gulati and Ritika Juneja writes: A consistent and strategic approach to trade, combined with long-term investments in sustainable productivity, will unlock the sector’s full potential on the global stage.

Key Points to Ponder:

• Which sector is most likely to face increased competition due to FTAs involving agricultural trade?

• The Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Agreement under WTO primarily deals with what?

• Which trade agreements has been under negotiation with the potential to impact Indian agriculture significantly?

• Which Indian agricultural export has shown consistent growth and benefits from liberal trade regimes?

• What is “tariff-rate quota” (TRQ) in agricultural trade negotiations?

• Discuss the potential benefits and challenges of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) for Indian agriculture.

• How trade liberalization can affect small and marginal farmers in India?

Key Takeaways:

• In a year marked by the Donald Trump administration’s shifting tariffs and global geopolitical tensions, India’s trade performance faces several challenges. While the India-UK Free Trade Agreement has been successfully concluded, the government is negotiating a bilateral trade agreement with the US. In the meantime, it would be interesting to review and reflect on India’s trade performance in the financial year 2024-25 (FY25).

• On the import front, India’s agri-imports rose by 16.5 per cent in FY25, from $32.8 billion in FY24 to $38.2 billion in FY25. Edible oils dominate the import basket, comprising $17.3 billion for 16.4 MMT, accounting for 45.4 per cent of total agri-imports.

Do You Know:

• India’s total exports, comprising goods and services, increased to $820.93 billion in FY25. This marks a 6.5 per cent increase over FY24. Merchandise exports accounted for $437.42 billion (53 per cent), while services, powered by India’s global edge in IT, finance, and business solutions, contributed $383.51 billion (47 per cent). Imports, however, grew at a faster clip of 6.85 per cent, reaching $915.19 billion in FY25. Of total imports, merchandise made up the lion’s share (79 per cent) with $720.24 billion, while services added $194.95 billion (21 per cent). This pushed the trade deficit to $94.26 billion, up from $78.39 billion in FY24. With the IMF pegging India’s nominal GDP at $4.19 trillion in FY25, the trade-to-GDP ratio stands at a robust 41.4 per cent — this reflects a deeper link with global markets.

• In the case of agriculture — a sector employing over 46 per cent of India’s workforce — agri-exports inched up to $52 billion in FY25 from $48.9 billion a year earlier, registering a modest 6.3 per cent increase.

• India’s agri-export strategy must focus on improving productivity across the board. This means greater investment in research and development, better seed technology, expanded irrigation, judicious use of fertilisers, and wider adoption of resource-efficient farming practices such as precision agriculture and fertigation — applying fertilisers through an irrigation system, typically drip or micro-irrigation. By doing so, India can lower its per-unit cost of production, enhance its global competitiveness, increase export earnings, boost farmer incomes, and promote environmental sustainability.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍FTA with UK: How a stitch in time can boost India’s textile sector

ECONOMY

India now the 4th largest economy: NITI CEO

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies III: Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization, of resources, growth, development and employment.

What’s the ongoing story: India overtakes Japan to become the fourth largest economy in the world, Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam has said.

Key Points to Ponder:

• The IMF in its recent WEO report said what?

• As per recent IMF data, India has become the world’s fourth-largest economy by surpassing which country?

• What is India’s nominal GDP as projected for 2025 (FY26)?

• The term ‘nominal GDP’ refers to what?

• Discuss the significance of India surpassing Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy.

• Know the role of domestic consumption and global trade in India’s recent economic growth leading to its new global ranking.

• What are the challenges that India may face in its pursuit to become the third-largest economy in the next few years?

• What can be the impact of India’s economic growth on income inequality and regional disparities within the country?

Key Takeaways:

• Subrahmanyam says the overall geopolitical and economic environment is favourable to India. “We are the fourth largest economy as I speak. We are a USD 4 trillion economy as I speak,” he said.

• Citing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, Subrahmanyam said, India today is larger than Japan. Till 2024, India was the fifth-largest economy in the world. “It is only the US, China and Germany which are larger than India, and if we stick to what is being planned and what is being thought through, in 2.5-3 years, we will be the third largest economy,” Subrahmanyam said.

• The IMF, in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released in April had said that India is expected to be the fourth largest economy in the world with a GDP of USD 4.19 trillion in 2025, ahead of Japan.

Do You Know:

• India’s nominal GDP for 2025 (FY26) is expected to be USD 4.187 billion, marginally more than the likely GDP of Japan, which is estimated at USD 4.187 billion, the IMF had said. According to IMF data, India’s per capita income has doubled from USD 1,438 in 2013-14 to USD 2,880 in 2025.
The IMF in its WEO report also said the Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.2 per cent in 2025-26, slower than the earlier estimated rate of 6.5 per cent, due to escalated trade tensions and global uncertainty.

• NITI Aayog’s approach paper titled “Viksit Rajya For Viksit Bharat @ 2047′ said from being considered a part of the ‘fragile five’ economies of the world, India rose to become the top five economies of the world in just a decade.
The World Bank defines high-income countries as those whose annual per capita income is more than USD 14,005 (2024- 25). India has the potential and aims to be a high-income country by 2047. The approach paper said a Viksit Bharat @ 2047 will be a USD 30 trillion economy.

• According to the paper, in order to achieve the goal of a Viksit Bharat by 2047, an overall framework for strategic interventions and reforms based on six key building blocks, with a total of 26 themes covered across all the building blocks, has been identified.

• The six key building blocks are: Macro-Economic Goals and Strategy; Empowered Citizens; A Thriving and Sustainable Economy; Technology and Innovation Leadership; A Global Leader, Vishwa Bandhu; Enabling factors — Governance, Security and Justice delivery.

EXPLAINED

Renegotiating Indus Waters Treaty: way forward for India

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Main Examination: General Studies II: India and its neighbourhood- relations.

What’s the ongoing story: Earlier this month, Pakistan signalled to India that it was willing to discuss the Indus Waters Treaty, which New Delhi had put in abeyance after the Pahalgam attack of April 22.

Key Points to Ponder:

• Know the significance of the Indus Waters Treaty in the context of India-Pakistan relations.

• Examine the legal mechanisms provided within the Indus Waters Treaty for dispute resolution.

• Assess the challenges and opportunities that arise from the construction of hydroelectric projects in shared river basins, with specific reference to the Indus River system.

• Since it was signed in 1960, what has the Indus Waters Treaty meant for India?

• What does keeping the Indus Waters treaty ‘in abeyance’ mean?

• When the treaty is renegotiated, what changes should India ask for?

• The Indus originates in Tibet. Should India be concerned about China’s interference while it resolves the river issue with Pakistan?

Key Takeaways:

• While the treaty came under renewed focus after Pahalgam — with Prime Minister Narendra Modi reiterating that ‘blood and water cannot flow together’ — India had issued a notice to Pakistan to renegotiate its terms back in January 2023.

• The Indus treaty has endured for almost 65 years, sharing the waters of the Indus river system — the ‘Eastern Rivers’, namely Sutlej, Beas and Ravi, for India, and the ‘Western Rivers’ of Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab for Pakistan.

• Sections in both India and Pakistan have claimed the treaty is unfair to their country and too generous to the other. When it was signed, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru had termed it the “price of peace for Pakistan”. Now, there are calls within India to scrap it entirely, while Pakistan has claimed that any disruption to its water supply will be treated as “an act of war”.

• However, amid all the clamour, much about the treaty remains little-understood, to its supporters and detractors alike. Uttam Kumar Sinha, Senior Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, breaks down the terms of the treaty, and what keeping it “in abeyance” means.

• The Indus Waters Treaty was a product of the context in which it was signed. A lot has changed since then, not just politically, but hydro-geomorphologically and in terms of population growth and irrigation use. In all fairness, the treaty needs to be renegotiated keeping the current realities in mind.

• Under the treaty, Pakistan got a higher volume of water. The average annual flow of water in the ‘western rivers’ (135.6 million acre feet) is more than four times that of the eastern rivers (32.6 maf). But two things are important to note here. India needed the exclusive use of the waters of the eastern rivers, which the treaty secured for us. India has since built dams and other water projects on these rivers, including the Bhakra Nangal dam and the Rajasthan canal project now called the Indira Gandhi Canal, which have helped irrigate Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan.

• In return, Pakistan got a much larger portion of the flow of water from the three western rivers but India was entitled to certain use on these rivers such as domestic use, non-consumptive use, agriculture use and generation of hydro-electric power. This we have not fully utilised. Also, India has the right to create water storage capacity of up to 3.6 million acre-feet (MAF) on the western rivers. A capacity of only about .7 MAF on Salal and Baglihar dams havebeen achieved. With the Pakaldul dam nearing completition, the storage capacity is set to inch up to .8 maf.

Do You Know:

• Article IX of the treaty lays down a graded three-level mechanism, in which disputes are first taken up at the level of the Indus Commissioners of India and Pakistan, then escalated to the World Bank-appointed Neutral Expert, and finally to the International Court of Arbitration (CoA) in The Hague.
For long, Pakistan has used this three-level mechanism to delay dams and hydro-electric projects by India. Pakistan has repeatedly misused Article IX of the treaty to stall Indian projects—objecting to the Salal Dam, dragging Baglihar to a Neutral Expert, halting the Tulbul navigation project since 1987, and forcing the Kishanganga project to arbitration, where India ultimately prevailed but faced imposed restrictions.
Just like India has maintained that all its issues with Pakistan should be resolved bilaterally, the Indus treaty too should have a bilateral dispute resolution mechanism.

• Signed in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty sought to ensure equitable water distribution amid growing tensions between India and Pakistan. India was granted unrestricted access to the water from the ‘Eastern Rivers’ — the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi — and Pakistan retained rights to the waters from the ‘Western Rivers’ Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

• India is constructing two hydroelectric power projects—the Kishenganga HE project on Kishenganga river, a tributary of Jhelum, and the Ratle Hydroelectric project on Chenab river.

• Pakistan has objected to the construction of these two projects. In 2015, Pakistan requested the appointment of a Neutral Expert to examine its technical objections to India’s Kishenganga and Ratle Hydro Electric Projects (HEPs).

• In 2016, Pakistan unilaterally retracted this request and proposed that a Court of Arbitration adjudicate its objections. This
unilateral action by Pakistan is in contravention of the graded mechanism of dispute settlement envisaged by Article IX of IWT.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍India issues notice to Pakistan seeking review of Indus Waters Treaty: What to know

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