UPSC Key: Anti-incumbency, Political parties and Hantavirus

• Why anti-incumbency is the most frequently cited reason for why ruling parties face poor odds of getting re-elected in India?

• Know the key macroeconomic data of these states.

• Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal—How is the fiscal health of these states?

• What is gross state domestic product (GSDP)?

• Know about the gross state domestic product (GSDP) of Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal

• What is per capita Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP)?

• High GSDP with low per capita GSDP indicates what?

• What is demographic transition?

• ‘India is undergoing a demographic transition’-Comment

• The Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) essentially tells what?

• Higher LFPR and Lower LFPR indicates what?

• What statistics and data says about unemployment rate in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal?

• What parameters indicates health of government finances?

• What is fiscal deficit?

• What are the Prudential norms for fiscal deficit?

• How is the Fiscal health of Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal?

Key Takeaways:

• The landslide victories underscored how decidedly voters wanted to either punish the incumbent and summarily change the way their states were being governed or, as was the case in Assam, to reward the incumbent without hesitation.

• State of economic growth and people’s incomes-Chart 1 captures a broader trend of how each of the four states grew and what happened to average incomes in each of the states over a decade between 2015 to 2024.

Chart 1.

—Over this decade, Assam’s gross state domestic product (GSDP) — a measure of the overall size of the economy — not only grew at the fastest rate among the four states in question but also has been one of the fastest across India. Among the larger states, only Telangana registered a faster growth rate during this period.

• State of (un)employment-India is undergoing a demographic transition with millions joining the working age population, and this has created a growing challenge for governments in the form of unemployment.
—Chart 2 maps two key metrics in this regard. The Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) essentially tells the demand for jobs in a state. Higher the LFPR, more the percentage of people in the working age group who are actively looking for a job.

Chart 2.

—Compared with the national average of 55.1%, all the states that went to polls had a higher demand for jobs. None more so than West Bengal, which also had the highest unemployment rate among the four states. The unemployment rate is the percentage of people who were looking for a job but did not get it.

• State of government finances-However, before any Chief Minister can address these macroeconomic parameters, they will have to first set in order the health of government finances. A government that has already borrowed more than its capacity, one that is saddled with the burden of paying back past loans, or one that is spending too much on freebies instead of creating new productive assets, cannot reignite a state’s growth story.
Charts 3 and 4 lay down some of the key metrics that the incoming Chief Ministers will have to contend with.

Chart 3.

—The first metric is fiscal deficit as a percentage of the state’s economy. Fiscal deficit essentially refers to the amount of money a state government can borrow from the market to meet the gap between its revenues and expenses. Prudential norms peg it to be 3% or lower. As things stand, West Bengal was the one state that exceeded this prudential norm.

Chart 4.

Do You Know:

• Anti-incumbency-According to the Wikipedia, anti-incumbency is sentiment in favour of voting out incumbent politicians, for the specific reason of being incumbent politicians. It is sometimes referred to as a “throw the bums out” sentiment. Periods of anti-incumbent
sentiment are typically characterized by wave elections. This sentiment can also lead to support for term limits.

• Macroeconomics- Macroeconomics is the study of whole economies, analysing large-scale factors such as GDP, inflation, unemployment, and national income to understand how they interact and drive economic growth. It focuses on government policies, including fiscal and monetary measures, to stabilize economic cycles, manage prices, and maximize sustainable employment.

• Fiscal health of states-According to the NITI Aayog website, the fiscal health of states in India is defined as their capability to manage revenue, expenditure, and debt sustainably to meet development needs and economic shocks, analysed via NITI Aayog’s Fiscal Health Index (FHI). It assesses financial soundness through five key pillars: Quality of Expenditure, Revenue Mobilization, Fiscal Prudence, Debt Index, and Debt Sustainability.

• Fiscal deficit- A fiscal deficit occurs when a government’s total expenditure exceeds its total revenue (excluding borrowings) during a financial year, representing the total borrowing requirement. It indicates the extent to which the government must borrow, often to fund development projects or bridge gaps between spending and tax receipts, with high levels potentially causing inflation or high interest rates.
—Fiscal prudence entails managing government finances responsibly to ensure debt sustainability, typically targeting a fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio of around 3% to 4.5% to avoid high borrowing costs and maintain investor confidence.

• Gross State Domestic Product— Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) is the total monetary value of all final goods and services produced within a state’s geographical boundaries during a specific financial year. It measures a state’s economic output, serving as a state-level counterpart to national GDP, and is calculated by summarizing value addition across primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors.

• Per capita Gross State Domestic Product—Per Capita Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) in India is the average income or economic output per person within a specific state, calculated by dividing the total GSDP by the state’s population. It measures the standard of living and economic development level of residents within that state’s boundaries, usually measured annually.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Knowledge Nugget | Fiscal Health Index 2026: Key highlights for UPSC and other competitive exams

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
1) Consider the following specific stages of demographic transition associated with economic development: (UPSC CSE, 2012)
1. Low birth-rate with low death rate
2. High birth-rate with high death rate
3. High birth-rate with low death rate
Select the correct order of the above stages using the codes given below:
(a) 1, 2, 3
(b) 2, 1, 3
(c) 2, 3, 1
(d) 3, 2, 1

2) A country’s fiscal deficit stands at 50,000 crores. It is receiving 10,000 crores through non-debt creating capital receipts. The country’s interest liabilities are 1,500 crores. What is the gross primary deficit? (UPSC CSE, 2025)
(a) 48,500 crores
(b) 51,500 crores
(c) 58,500 crores
(d) None of the above

Results cement national parties’ rise, state leaders lose more ground

Preliminary Examination: Indian Polity

Mains Examination: General Studies II: Parliament and State legislatures and Salient features of the Representation of People’s Act.

What’s the ongoing story: With the defeat of the All-India Trinamool Congress after an uninterrupted stint of 15 years in power in West Bengal and the surprise defeat of the DMK in Tamil Nadu, the standing of regional parties has hit a new low.

• What you know about ‘Political parties’?

• Democratic systems and Political parties-connect the dots

• ‘India has a multi-party system’-what you understand by the same?

• What is National Parties?

• What is state Parties?

• What is Regional Parties?

• National Parties, State Parties and Regional Parties-compare

• How Election Commission recognises a party as a national party?

• How is a party declared a State Party by the Election Commission of India?

• What factors that give rise to regional parties?

• National and State Party-know its significance

• Election Commission of India and Free and fair elections-what Constitution of India says?

• How are Symbols Allotted to Political Parties?

• Why do smaller parties often fail to gain National Party status despite regional dominance?

• How party recognition influences electoral competition in India?

Key Takeaways:

• While the TVK is a new regional player that has done very well in Tamil Nadu, the regional framing of polls in the southern state has nevertheless suffered a loss, as the DMK was the strongest proponent of Tamil identity and politics. Anti-incumbency clearly defeated the DMK’s dogged framing of the elections as one to be fought around Tamil pride, with Chief Minister M K Stalin — who was championing the Tamil cause — losing his own election.

• This is just the latest jolt to regional politics. While the Aam Aadmi Party is technically a national party, it was also powerful only in certain regions like Punjab and Delhi. However, its regional footprint has been shrinking.

• Recently, the AAP lost seven Rajya Sabha MPs to the BJP, soon after losing the Delhi assembly elections to the BJP. The CPI(M), which is also technically a national party, had in effect shrunk to one state, Kerala, thus becoming strictly a regional player. The victory of the Congress, another national party, over the CPI(M) in Kerala means that another force in a single state has suffered a setback. Similarly, the BJP had defeated Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal in Odisha in 2024, ending Patnaik’s 24-year stint as CM

• The electoral turn of the last two years, thus, shows a massive shift towards national parties – the Samajwadi Party’s impressive tally of 37 in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls notwithstanding – at a time when the opposition has been flagging federal concerns, and accusing the Centre of withholding funds, misusing agencies against its leaders and also trying to change the “electoral map” of India through delimitation on the latest census figures, which would diminish the relative share of the southern states in the Lok Sabha.

Do You Know:

• According to the EC, “a political party shall be treated as a recognised political party in a state, if and only if either the conditions specified in Clause (A) are, or the condition specified in Clause (B) is fulfilled by that party.
—As per clause (A), a party should be engaged in political activity for a continuous period of five years; and has, at the last general election in that state to the house of the people, or, as the case may be, to the Legislative Assembly of the state, returned- either ( i ) at least one member to the house of the people for every twenty-five members of that House or any fraction of that number from that state; or (ii) at least one member to the Legislative Assembly of that state for every thirty members of that assembly or any fraction of that number.“
—Clause (B) states that the “total number of valid votes polled by all the contesting candidates set up by such party at the last general election in the state to the house of the people, or as the case may be, to the Legislative Assembly of the state, is not less than six per cent of the total number of valid votes polled by all the contesting candidates at such general election in the state.”

• For recognition of a ‘national party’ if a political party is treated as a recognised political party in four or more states, only then will it be recognised as a `national party’ throughout the whole of India, but it will only be continued to be categorised as one as long as that political party continues to fulfill the conditions for recognition in four or more states on the results of any subsequent general election either to the house of the people or to the Legislative Assembly of any state.
—The rules also state if a political party is treated as a recognised political party in less than four states, it will be a `state party’ in the state but only so long as that political party continues to fulfill the conditions for recognition on the results of any subsequent general election to the house of the people or, as the case may be, to the Legislative Assembly of the state.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍With BJP winning Bengal, how India’s political map changes

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
3) Consider the following statements: (UPSC CSE, 2017)
1. The Election Commission of India is a five-member body.
2. Union Ministry of Home Affairs decides the election schedule for the conduct of both general elections and bye-elections.
3. Election Commission resolves the disputes relating to splits/mergers of recognised political parties.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 2 only
(c) 2 and 3 only
(d) 3 only

4) A Parliamentary System of Government is one in which (UPSC CSE, 2020)
(a) all political parties in the Parliament are represented in the Government
(b) the Government is responsible to the Parliament and can be removed by it
(c) the Government is elected by the people and can be removed by them
(d) the Government is chosen by the Parliament but cannot be removed by it before completion of a fixed term

Previous year UPSC Mains Question Covering similar theme:
📍“The Indian party system is passing through a phase of transition which looks to be full of contradictions and paradoxes.” Discuss. (2016)
📍 “While the national political parties in India favour centralisation, the regional parties are in favour of State autonomy.” Comment. (2022)

The World

Suspected hantavirus outbreak traps 150 on ship off Cape Verde

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance

Mains Examination: General Studies II:  Issues relating to development and management of Social Sector/Services relating to Health, Education, Human Resources.

What’s the ongoing story: Three people have been reported dead following a suspected Hantavirus outbreak aboard a cruise ship on the Atlantic Ocean, the World Health Organization (WHO) told the BBC. 

• What exactly is Hantavirus?

• Why is it a cause of concern?

• Why Hantavirus transmission is strongly associated with closed or dusty environments?

• How does aerosolization of rodent excreta increase the risk of Hantavirus infection?

• The primary mode of Hantavirus transmission in humans is through which pathway?

• Why Hantavirus outbreaks are often linked to poorly ventilated spaces?

• Why Hantavirus is termed a “silent risk”?

Key Takeaways:

• A suspected outbreak of the rare hantavirus infection on a cruise ship in the Atlantic Ocean killed three people, including an elderly married couple, and sickened at least three others, the World Health Organization and South Africa’s Department of Health said Sunday.

• In a statement to The Associated Press, WHO said an investigation was underway but that at least one case of hantavirus had been confirmed. One of the patients was in intensive care in a South African hospital, the UN’s health agency said, and it was working with authorities to evacuate two others with symptoms from the ship.

• Hantavirus infections are spread mainly by rodents Hantaviruses, which are found throughout the world, are a family of viruses spread mainly by contact with the urine or feces of infected rodents like rats and mice.

Do You Know:

• Dr Shilpa Singi, Lead Consultant – Academies and Strategies Internal Medicine, Aster Whitefield Hospital, Bangalore explains that Hantavirus is an infection that occurs when people come into contact with infected rodent urine and droppings and saliva from a group of viruses.

• Dr Swati Rajagopal, Senior Consultant – Infectious Disease & Travel Medicine, Aster CMI Hospital, Bangalore, adds that while it does not spread through casual contact between people in most cases, humans also run the risk of getting infected by breathing in contaminated air with rodent urine, droppings, or saliva, especially in closed or dusty spaces.

• Dr Singi informs that Hantavirus infections have two main clinical presentations: Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), a lung illness, and haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, a kidney disease.

• Doctors establish a warning because the disease shows capacity to advance its progression at a rapid pace. “Patients who develop the condition will experience cough and shortness of breath together with serious respiratory distress which occurs when fluid builds up in their lungs within a few days after symptoms begin. In fact, recent study results demonstrate that HPS, a severe medical condition, has a 40% fatality rate which requires immediate medical treatment,” she shares.
However, presently there’s a lack of effective antiviral treatment for treating hantavirus infection. The medical approach to treatment focuses on providing supportive care — oxygen therapy, fluid management and intensive care for patients who experience severe symptoms.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍A suspected outbreak of the rare hantavirus on a cruise ship in the Atlantic Ocean kills 3 people

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
5) Consider the following statements: (UPSC CSE, 2025)
I. No virus can survive in ocean water.
II. No virus can infect bacteria.
III. No virus can change the cellular transcriptional activity in host cells.
How many of the statements given above are correct?
(a) Only one
(b) Only two
(c) All the three
(d) None

6) Which of the following statements is/are correct? (UPSC CSE, 2016)
Viruses can infect
1. bacteria
2. fungi
3. plants
Select the correct answer using the code given below:
(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 3 only
(c) 1 and 3 only
(d) 1, 2 and 3

Economy

India may expand LNG storage to manage future supply crises

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance

Mains Examination: General Studies III: Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways etc.

What’s the ongoing story: The liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply disruption due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the West Asia war has underscored the need for having more LNG storage capacity in India to cushion geopolitical and supply shocks, and all stakeholders in the sector are now serious about increasing the capacity by adding more storage tanks, according to the chief executive of India’s largest LNG importer Petronet LNG.

• Why disruption in the Strait of Hormuz directly affects India’s LNG supply security?

• How does India’s dependence on LNG imports amplify vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions?

• Why LNG storage capacity is critical during supply shocks?

• What is the role of cryogenic storage in LNG infrastructure?

• Know the concept of “energy buffering” in the context of LNG storage?

• How does LNG storage expansion contribute to energy security?

• Know India’s energy security challenges in the context of ongoing war.

• What are the challenges in expanding Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) capacity?

• Map Work– Strategic Petroleum Reserves in India

• Which countries have strategic oil reserves?

Key Takeaways:

• Petronet LNG itself is looking at adding storage tanks at its LNG terminals. It has eight LNG tanks at its flagship Dahej terminal and two at its other terminal at Kochi. Singh said that the under-execution Gopalpur terminal project will add two tanks, and the company is looking to add another tank at the Kochi terminal. As for Dahej, Petronet LNG is looking to add four LNG tanks, and is looking at land availability for the same.

Do You Know:

• India depends on LNG imports to meet about half of its natural gas requirement, and about 60% of those imports came through the critical maritime chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, primarily from India’s largest supplier Qatar, and also the UAE. Vessel movements through the Strait are all but halted owing to the West Asia conflict. The Strait of Hormuz is a major chokepoint for global energy flows, accounting for a fifth of international oil and LNG shipments.

• Not one LNG cargo has reached India from the Persian Gulf for over two months now, hitting supplies even as India has been trying to augment supplies by sourcing LNG from alternative sources. Moreover, with LNG imports under pressure, the government was forced to prioritise natural gas supplies to certain critical segments like transportation and household kitchens, while rationing the flow to some industries.

• According to industry analysts, having additional LNG storage buffers could have helped blunt the impact of the unprecedented Strait of Hormuz blockade, something that was considered extremely improbable, but happened nonetheless. Currently, India has 23 LNG tanks spread across its various LNG terminals; Petronet LNG alone accounts for 10 of those.

• Given that LNG tanks have to be cryogenic in order to keep LNG in the liquid state, building them is an expensive proposition and a longer-term project as compared to building a tank to hold other liquid fuels.

• Natural gas, liquefied into LNG at ultra-low temperatures, is loaded onto specialised cryogenic vessels and transported by sea. The LNG vessels then discharge the LNG into cryogenic tanks at regasification terminals, which convert the LNG back into the gaseous state. The natural gas is then supplied to consumers through pipelines.

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📍Explained: Difference between LPG and LNG, and why West Asia war affected LPG supply more

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