UPSC Key: AI in diplomacy, OPEC and Digital Arrest

Key Points to Ponder:

• Why is the UAE leaving OPEC and OPEC+?

• What does the UAE move mean?

• What is the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)?

• What is the difference between OPEC and OPEC+?

• What does OPEC and OPEC+ do?

• How does OPEC+ influence global oil prices and geopolitics?

• UAE to exit OPEC+ and OPEC—What could this mean for oil prices?

• How much oil do OPEC and OPEC+ countries produce?

• Why OPEC is also called as a ‘cartel’?

• Have other countries left OPEC?

• Which countries are in OPEC and OPEC+?

• Map Work– OPEC and OPEC+ countries

• OPEC+ and India-Connect the dots

Key Takeaways:

• Despite the announcement, oil prices surged over 3 per cent as the primary driver remained supply disruption caused by the largely closed Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy flows, news agency Reuters reported.

• However, prices pared some gains after the UAE move, suggesting traders viewed the exit as a factor that could influence future supply management. The UAE’s decision sparks uncertainty over how oil production will be coordinated globally, at a time when markets are already under stress from geopolitical tensions and disrupted shipping.

• The market is effectively balancing two competing forces – immediate supply tightness due to the Iran conflict and longer-term uncertainty stemming from cracks within the producer alliance.

• JORGE LEON, ANALYST AT RYSTAD says “The UAE withdrawal marks a ⁠significant shift for OPEC. Alongside Saudi Arabia, it is one of the few members with meaningful spare capacity – the mechanism through which the group exerts market influence.”

• AJAY PARMAR, DIRECTOR OF ENERGY AND REFINING AT ICIS: “The UAE has been in disagreement with the general OPEC policy for quite some time. So ⁠it’s not a ⁠surprise, but it will certainly have a significant impact in the long term. It also signifies the general ⁠drift in the historically strong alliance between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.”

Do You Know:

• The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, also known as OPEC, was formed in 1960 by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. The organization has since expanded to 13 members. OPEC regularly meets to set oil production targets and coordinate output to help manage global oil prices for the entire group. In 2016, largely in response to dramatically falling oil prices driven by significant increases in U.S. shale oil output, OPEC signed an agreement with 10 other oil-producing countries to create what is now known as OPEC+. Among these 10 countries was the world’s third-largest oil producer in 2022, Russia, which produced 13% of the world total (10.3 million barrels per day [b/d]).

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍 What is OPEC+ and why have they slashed oil production?

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
1) Consider the following statements: (UPSC CSE, 2024)
Statement-I: Recently, Venezuela has achieved a rapid recovery from its economic crisis and succeeded in preventing its people from fleeing/emigrating to other countries.
Statement-II: Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves
Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?
(a) Both Statement-1 and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II explains Statement-I
(b) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct, but Statement-II does not explain Statement-I
(c) Statement-I is correct, but Statement-II is incorrect
(d) Statement-I is incorrect, but Statement-II is correct

Nation

Multi-pronged actions under consideration to check digital arrest frauds, Centre tells SC

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance

Mains Examination: General Studies III: Challenges to internal security through communication networks, role of media and social networking sites in internal security challenges, basics of cyber security; money-laundering and its prevention.

What’s the ongoing story: Racing against time to stop digital arrest frauds, the Centre has told the Supreme Court that a series of measures including temporary debit holds on suspicious accounts and application of the Prevention of Money Laundering Act-2002 to such offences are under consideration.

Key Points to Ponder:

• What is Digital Arrest?

• How Digital arrest scam operates?

• What is Indian Cybercrime Coordination Centre (I4C)?

• What Supreme Court said on digital arrest?

• What are the issues and challenges in curtailing digital arrest Scams?

• What are the steps taken by GOI to combat Digital arrests Scams?

Key Takeaways:

• In a status report to the top court, which had been monitoring action to combat digital arrest frauds, the Centre said the Inter-Departmental Committee (IDC) constituted pursuant to SC directions to deal with the issue, had agreed with the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) framework proposed by the RBI prescribing temporary debit holds on suspicious amounts/accounts to prevent money-mule activities and cyber-enabled fraud, and urged the court to approve the same.

• The report submitted by Attorney General R Venkataramani said the 3rd meeting of the IDC was convened under the Chairmanship of Special Secretary (Internal Security), Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) on March 12, and discussions were held with major telecom service providers and WhatsApp.

• The report said the Department of Telecommunications ought to expedite the notification of the Telecommunications (User Identification) Rules and related Authorisation Rules required for implementation of the Biometric Identity Verification System (BIVS) within three months, and ensure that the technical system for national-level visibility of SIM issuance across operators is implemented within six months thereafter, so that the BIVS-based cross-operator SIM monitoring system becomes operational before December 2026. It urged the SC to issue necessary directions in this regard.

• The meeting also discussed measures to ensure accountability of TSPs for compliance by point-of-sale (PoS) vendors, enhancing AI-based fraud detection and monitoring systems, including analytics relating to suspicious calling patterns and SIM usage, and examining feasibility of reducing the blocking timeline for suspicious SIM cards to 2-3 hours, while maintaining due diligence safeguards.

Do You Know:

• Notably, “digital arrest” has not been explicitly defined in any law. Although fraudulent online activities are addressed under the Information Technology Act, 2000 and organised criminal activity under the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS), 2023, neither law explicitly defines “cybercrimes”, causing ambiguity in the enforcement of regulatory response.

• Online frauds and criminals typically call potential victims and tell them that they have sent or are the intended recipients of a parcel containing illegal goods, drugs, fake passports or any other contraband item. In some cases, the criminals contact relatives or friends of the target and tell them that the target has been found to be involved in a crime or an accident, and is in their custody.
—The criminals, who often use pictures or identities of police personnel to convey authenticity, usually demand money from the target for a ‘compromise’ and closure of the case. In certain cases, the victims are “digitally arrested”, and forced to stay visible over Skype or other video conferencing platforms to the criminals until their demands are met.
—The cybercriminals are also known to use studios that look like police stations or government offices, and to wear uniforms similar to those of law enforcement agencies.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍UPSC Knowledge Nugget of the day: Digital Arrest

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
2) In India, it is legally mandatory for which of the following to report on cyber security incidents? (UPSC CSE 2017)
1. Service providers
2. Data centres
3. Body corporate
Select the correct answer using the code given below:
(a) 1 only
(b) 1 and 2 only
(c) 3 only
(d) 1, 2 and 3

Previous year UPSC main Question Covering similar theme:
📍What are the different elements of cyber security ? Keeping in view the challenges in cyber security, examine the extent to which India has successfully developed a comprehensive National Cyber Security Strategy. (2022)

The Ideas Page

AI is bringing the battle to the door of the national-security bureaucracy

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance

Main Examination: General Studies II: Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors and issues arising out of their design and implementation.

What’s the ongoing story: C. Raja Mohan Writes- As AI systems begin to simulate negotiation outcomes, generate policy options, and model crisis responses, the temptation to let them decide will grow. While AI can scan vast archives and detect patterns, it can also make serious errors in interpreting history or assessing present circumstances

Key Points to Ponder:

• AI in diplomacy-know in brief

• What are the opportunities and risks associated with using AI in diplomacy?

• What are the limitations of Artificial Intelligence in diplomacy and strategic decision-making?

• How does the increasing use of AI in foreign policy challenge traditional notions of statecraft?

• ‘AI can augment but not replace human judgment in national security’-comment

• What is the concept of “algorithmic bias” in the context of AI-driven national security decisions?

• What kind of ethical dilemmas posed by the integration of AI into national security frameworks?

• How AI-driven prediction models may influence decisions related to war, peace, and diplomacy?

• What is the impact of AI on bureaucratic structures in national security?

• How emerging technologies like AI are reshaping the balance between efficiency and accountability in governance?

Key Takeaways:
C. Raja Mohan Writes-

• Singapore’s foreign minister Vivian Balakrishnan has opened a window into the future of diplomacy. In a Facebook post, he declared that “the diplomat who learns to work with AI will have a meaningful edge”. The remark accompanied his unveiling of a personal AI agent using open source software and a low-cost computer.

• That a sitting foreign minister coded his own AI assistant is remarkable; that he published the entire architecture on GitHub is even more so. He has shown how accessible the new AI tools have become, how the entry barriers to using AI are lowering, and how profoundly they could reshape diplomatic practice.

• The AI assistant that Balakrishnan built is not a regular chatbot. It connects to the minister’s communication channels, processes voice notes and images, schedules tasks, and — crucially — retains structured memory. Unlike conventional AI assistants that forget everything between sessions, his AI assistant extracts facts, synthesises them into a knowledge graph, and recalls them when needed. Balakrishnan describes it as an “invaluable” research assistant and admits, “I don’t dare switch it off”.

• Diplomacy has always rested on two pillars: Institutional memory — the accumulated record of who said what, when, and why in the engagement between governments — and individual craft, honed through years of negotiation abroad and persuasion at home. A self learning AI system does not replace either; it reorganises and amplifies them. It makes institutional memory instantly searchable and aids the diplomat’s ability to assess the relevant context in real time.

Do You Know:
C. Raja Mohan Writes-

• Foreign ministries across the world are beginning to embed AI tools into their workflows. The old machinery of diplomatic craft — slow, paper bound, and hierarchical — struggles to keep pace with the velocity of contemporary diplomacy and the growing weight of the cognitive load on its practitioners. AI tools will inevitably emerge as a force multiplier in modern diplomacy. A well tuned AI system can draft communiqués in minutes and cross-check decades of treaties for consistency. It could generate alternative formulations calibrated to different audiences and improve the choices for the political decision-makers.

• In the past, diplomatic advantage often flowed from sheer manpower. Major powers could overwhelm smaller delegations by deploying large teams of experts. AI changes that equation. A five person delegation equipped with a sovereign AI stack could possibly match the analytical and drafting capacity of a 50 person mission. This technological levelling empowers middle powers and small states to shape agendas rather than merely respond to them.

• The deeper transformation lies elsewhere — in what AI removes. Much of diplomatic work is procedural drudgery — drafting, summarising, cross-referencing, and record keeping. AI eliminates this “documentary friction”, freeing diplomats to focus on the irreducible human dimensions of their craft: Deeper awareness of other societies, political judgment, and relationship building.

• AI’s impact on diplomacy is not the first technological disruption of the profession. The telegraph in the 19th century collapsed physical distance, allowed capitals to instruct envoys in real time, and reduced the autonomy of “plenipotentiaries”.

•The rise of mass communication and radio brought public opinion into foreign policy, forcing diplomats to operate under constant scrutiny. The internet revolution extended this transparency to every corner of global politics, accelerating information flows and constraining older systems of assessment. AI differs from these earlier technologies because it introduces a new kind of agency.

• AI tools do not merely relay information; they interpret, predict, and simulate. They can act as an intellectual sparring partner — capable of parsing complex treaty language, forecasting crises, and identifying creative compromises that human negotiators might miss. But in the end, it cannot replace the essence of diplomacy: Empathy, trust building, and persuasion in pursuit of national interest.

• Balakrishnan’s AI assistant is only one of the several new tools that will emerge in the coming years. Foreign offices are among the most conservative, given the implications of their work. But they have no choice but to adapt to the AI revolution. The battle between the inertia of the national security bureaucracy and the speed of AI-driven technological change will be an absorbing one to watch in Delhi.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍AI shakes statecraft: Prediction markets test diplomats, spies

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
3) With the present state of development, Artificial Intelligence can effectively do which of the following? (UPSC CSE, 2020)
1. Bring down electricity consumption in industrial units
2. Create meaningful short stories and songs
3. Disease diagnosis
4. Text-to-Speech Conversion
5. Wireless transmission of electrical energy
Select the correct answer using the code given below:
(a) 1, 2, 3 and 5 only
(b) 1, 3 and 4 only
(c) 2, 4 and 5 only
(d) 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5

Previous year UPSC main Question Covering similar theme:
📍Introduce the concept of Artificial Intelligence (AI). How does AI help clinical diagnosis? Do you perceive any threat to privacy of the individual in the use of AI in healthcare? (2023)

Explained

Why power grid is facing the most strain at night

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies III: Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways etc.

What’s the ongoing story: As soaring temperatures push India’s peak power consumption to record highs, the stress on the grid is becoming most pronounced at night, when nearly 150 GW (giga watt, or 1000 megawatts) of solar capacity goes offline after sundown.

Key Points to Ponder:

• What is India’s peak electricity demand?

• What data from GRID India shows?

• What is the grid controller of India?

• What is the primary reason for the peak demand?

• “India’s power grid stress during night hours reflects the challenges of renewable energy integration”-discuss

• Know the reasons of the increasing mismatch between electricity demand and supply during non-solar hours in India.

• What is the role of thermal power plants in ensuring grid stability in the context of rising renewable energy capacity?

• What is the concept of the “duck curve” and its relevance to India’s energy transition?

Key Takeaways:

• Data from the Grid Controller of India (Grid India) shows that there has been a shortage in meeting peak demand the past few days during non-solar hours, which typically refers to the period between 6 PM and 6 AM, when solar generation is not available. During this period, the system usually relies on conventional sources such as coal, gas, hydro, nuclear and wind to meet demand.

• Peak demand figures, whether daily or monthly, are largely statistical reference points, as they reflect the highest load recorded at any moment during a given period on a particular day, often for a brief duration.

• According to officials aware of the matter, the primary reason for the shortfall during non-solar hours was a spike in forced and partial outages. While planned outages were expected to be limited to around 3 GW on both days, forced and partial outages surged to nearly 26 GW, The Indian Express has learnt from government sources.

• Another senior official also attributed the gap in demand and supply during non-solar hours to forced outages in coal-based power plants, which the official said stood at around 18 GW. “There was also partial outage of around 3-4 GW. So, the total outage is around 21 GW,” the official added.

• A planned maintenance shutdown of a generation unit is a temporary pause to perform crucial repairs, inspections, and upgrades that cannot be done while the plant is running. In contrast, forced outages are unplanned disruptions caused by technical faults, equipment failures, or fuel constraints.

•The high level of such outages on Friday and Saturday was largely driven by extreme heat conditions, which put additional stress on generation equipment and reduced plant availability precisely when demand was peaking late in the evening.

Do You Know:

• Meanwhile, spot electricity prices in the country are also witnessing sharp increases at night, reflecting the stress on the grid as scorching temperatures drive demand for power to run appliances like air conditioners.

• Data from Indian Energy Exchange (IEX), the country’s biggest power trading bourse, shows the spot price of electricity in Day Ahead Market (DAM) segment touching the maximum regulatory limit of Rs 10 per kilowatt hour (KWh) at night before declining to around Rs 1.5 per KwH during the day.

• Traditionally, electricity demand peaks during the summer months of June-July or in early autumn (September-October), driven by widespread air-conditioner use across households and businesses. This year, however, the surge in power demand has occurred in April itself.

• The last time annual peak demand was reached this early in the year was in 2022–23. The rise is also sharp on a year-on-year basis. In April 2025, peak demand stood at 235 GW, compared to 256 GW so far this month.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍How heatwave has driven an early surge in India’s power demand

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
4) With reference to the Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Limited (IREDA), which of the following statements is/are correct? (UPSC CSE, 2015)
1. It is a Public Limited Government Company.
2. It is a Non-Banking Financial Company.
Select the correct answer using the code given below:
(a) 1 only
(b) 2 only
(c) Both 1 and 2
(d) Neither 1 nor 2

Previous year UPSC Main Question Covering similar theme:
📍“Access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy is the sine qua non to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)”.Comment on the progress made in India in this regard. (2018)

Indonesia’s new biofuel push could make cooking oil expensive in India

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies II: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests

What’s the ongoing story: Amid the surge in oil prices because of the Iran war, Indonesia has announced the roll-out of the biofuel B50, a blend of 50% palm oil-based biodiesel and 50% conventional diesel. The fuel is being tested and should be in use by July.

Key Points to Ponder:

• Palm oil consumption in India-Know in detail

• India’s dependence on edible oil imports-know about the same

• What’s driving Indonesia’s push for B50?

• How might diverting more palm oil towards domestic biodiesel reshape the global vegetable oil markets, especially for India as a major importer?

• Why is India such a major importer of vegetable oils?

• What is the next best alternative to palm oil for the Indian market?

• Is palm oil-based biodiesel climate-positive?

• Does it risk undermining sustainability goals due to land-use concerns?

• How global biofuel policies can influence domestic food inflation in import-dependent countries like India?

• Discuss the “food vs fuel” debate in the context of rising biofuel adoption globally.

• How can India reduce its vulnerability to external shocks in edible oil supply?

Key Takeaways:

• For India, which relies heavily on Indonesian palm oil imports, this could mean tighter supply and pricier cooking oil back home. Prerna Prabhakar, a Fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress, explains what Indonesia is doing and how it will impact India.

• Indonesia’s net imports of crude oil stood at around USD 7.8 billion as of 2025. The proposed B50 biodiesel programme aims to partially substitute these imports with palm oil-based fuel. This policy push comes amid heightened geopolitical uncertainties and a recent surge in global oil prices, which have crossed $100 per barrel in recent days.

• The policy also aligns with Indonesia’s broader sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) roadmap. From 2027 onwards, the government has indicated that flights operating from Soekarno–Hatta International Airport and I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport are expected to begin using aviation fuel blended with around 1% SAF, potentially derived from palm oil. While the initial blending ratio is modest, it signals Indonesia’s intent to extend its biofuel strategy beyond road transport into aviation.

• In parallel, the expansion of biofuel use is aimed at supporting domestic palm oil producers by absorbing surplus supply within the domestic market, especially in light of tightening regulations in key export destinations such as the European Union (e.g., deforestation-related rules targeting palm oil).

• Overall, the policy serves multiple objectives: reducing import dependence on crude oil, stabilising domestic palm oil demand, advancing alternative fuel adoption, and contributing to emissions reduction goals, positioning Indonesia as an emerging green energy leader in the region.

Do You Know:

• As Indonesia accounts for half of global palm oil exports (as of 2024), the shift toward a B50 programme, which reorients supply from export markets to domestic consumption, is expected to significantly influence global palm oil markets. Export availability will tighten, pushing international prices up.

• For India, the implications are particularly pronounced. India imports around USD 8.5 billion of palm oil, and more than 50 per cent of it comes from Indonesia (as of 2024). Palm oil is extensively used across household cooking, the food processing industry, and industrial sectors such as soaps and oleochemicals. A supply-demand imbalance in global markets is therefore likely to translate into higher import prices, with broad-based spillovers. These include rising household expenditure, elevated food inflation, and increased input costs for industry, potentially feeding into higher output prices.

• While India can partially adjust by increasing imports of alternative vegetable oils, the scope for substitution is limited. Imports of sunflower oil (primarily from Russia and Ukraine) and soybean oil (from Argentina and Brazil) are relatively smaller in volume. Moreover, these oils are more expensive and sourced from geographically distant markets, increasing both cost and supply-chain risks.

• At the same time, there is a potential upside for the domestic edible oil sector. Higher international prices can incentivise greater domestic production of oilseeds, benefiting farmers through improved price realisation and potentially strengthening the domestic value chain over time.

• India’s demand for vegetable oils has far exceeded its domestic supply, driven by a growing population and rising consumption. A key structural reason for this gap is low farm productivity in oilseeds, which results in lower yields per hectare compared with global benchmarks.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Is palm oil bad for health? Here’s what the science says

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:
5) Recently, “oilzapper” was in the news. What is it? (UPSC CSE, 2011)
(a) It is an eco-friendly technology for the remediation of oily sludge and oil spills
(b) It is the latest technology developed for under-sea oil exploration
(c) It is genetically engineered high biofuel-yielding maize variety
(d) It is the latest technology to control the accidentally caused flames from oil wells

Previous year UPSC Main Question Covering similar theme:
📍Discuss several ways in which microorganisms can help in meeting the current fuel shortage.(2023)

Economy

Airlines cite ‘extreme stress’, seek changes in ATF pricing formula

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies II: Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors and issues arising out of their design and implementation.

What’s the ongoing story: An airline body representing Indian carriers IndiGo, Air India, and SpiceJet has sent an SOS to the government, urging changes in the pricing formula for aviation turbine fuel (ATF), or jet fuel, whose prices have shot up in the global market amid the West Asia crisis.

Key Points to Ponder:

• What is ATF in aviation?

• What is the ATF pricing mechanism in India?

• Know the role of global geopolitical developments in shaping domestic aviation economics.

• What kind of impact will ATF prices have on the cost of operations?

• What will be the immediate impact on customers?

• What will be the impact on the aviation industry?

• What is Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)?

• How cost asymmetry between domestic and international operations affects airline network sustainability?

Key Takeaways:

• ATF prices in India, which are linked to global prices, are due for their monthly revision early May. In a letter to the Ministry of Civil Aviation (MoCA), the Federation of Indian Airlines (FIA) wrote that the current “ad hoc” pricing mechanism for ATF is “creating severe imbalance in domestic and international operations and rendering airline networks unviable and unsustainable”.

• “The airline industry in India is under extreme stress and are on the verge of closing down or of stopping its operations. The dire condition of the aviation sector has been exacerbated by the West Asia War and the exorbitant increase in the price of ATF,” the FIA wrote in the letter dated April 26, as it sought the jet fuel pricing formula to be reversed to one with margin bands — with a floor and ceiling — for what refiners can charge, and have the same pricing for domestic as well as international flights of Indian airlines.

• Usually, ATF prices account for about 40% of Indian airlines’ operational costs; the price surge has led to a further increase to 55-60%, according to the FIA.

• Indian airlines are also suffering due to airspace restrictions in West Asia and the ban on Indian aircraft from entering the Pakistani airspace, as well the rupee depreciation.

• The industry body also urged the Centre to temporarily suspend the 11% excise duty on ATF sales for domestic flights, and work towards
reduction in value added tax (VAT), which is quite high in a few states that house the biggest Indian airports.

Do You Know:

• According to PIB, the Government has notified an amendment to the Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) (Regulation of Marketing) Order, 2001 (ATF Control Order) vide notification dated 17 April 2026. The amendment has been issued as an administrative measure to bring Aviation Turbine Fuel blended with Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) under the ambit of the ATF Control Order.

• SAF consists of specially processed aviation grade hydrocarbons, that are chemically similar to ATF and fully compatible with aircraft engines. SAF does not alter the fundamental nature, safety, or performance of aviation fuel. Inclusion of SAF for aviation use undergoes International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) recognised rigorous testing process for aviation engines as per ASTM International and only after such extensive procedure, SAF is accepted for use in aviation.

• As recognised by ICAO, SAF is a renewable fuel derived from alternative feedstocks such as crops, biogenic residues, and waste materials, offering significant reductions in GHG emissions.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍‘On the verge of closing down’: What airlines want govt to do about fuel prices

 

PRELIMS ANSWER KEY

1.(d)  2.(d)  3.(b)  4.(c)  5.(a)

  

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