The World This Week | Xi and Putin hold summit in Beijing, US builds pressure on Cuba, Riyadh and Islamabad deepen defence ties

Power of Siberia 2

The two sides signed several agreements, but they failed to reach a breakthrough on the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline, a project that Moscow said would be “discussed in great detail.”

The line was expected to carry 50 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas per year to China from the Arctic gas fields of Yamal via Mongolia, news agency Reuters reported.

While Moscow has a far larger nuclear arsenal and has traditionally been viewed as the larger power, the two countries’ trade relationship is lopsided in Beijing’s favour. Beijing accounts for over a third of Russia’s imports and buys more than a quarter of Moscow’s exports. Meanwhile, Moscow accounts for about four per cent of China’s international trade, the New York Times reported.

Russia’s energy exports to Europe have only shrunk following its operation in Ukraine in 2022. Moreover, its armed forces have weakened, and its economy is under pressure. Amid this, Beijing seemed to have had the upper hand in the relationship.

As the war in Iran has affected crude supplies to China (about 35 per cent of China’s crude imports came from the Persian Gulf), Russia offered support. However, Beijing has been hesitant to increase its dependence on one supplier too much.

Following the summit, the Kremlin said the two sides only reached “a general understanding” on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline.

There are two other natural gas pipelines between Russia and China – the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline (that brought 38 billion cubic meters of gas last year) and the China-Russia Far East Gas Pipeline, which is under construction. The latter has a planned capacity of 10 billion cubic meters.

More personal

Unlike Trump, whose summit last week was only his second official visit to the country, this was Putin’s 25th trip and 14th since Xi became President. Moreover, Putin and Xi have met in person more than 40 times since 2013.

Hence, at this critical juncture – marked by the war with Iran and the rift between Washington and its traditional allies – any attempts made by Trump to sway the Chinese President with his personality-driven diplomacy and short-term deals were a far cry from yielding significant dividends.

In a lengthy joint declaration, the two countries condemned much of the US’s latest actions, particularly its war in West Asia. They also called for a “multi-polar world order,” signalling their unwavering stance against what Xi described as a “tide of unilateral hegemony.”

Beijing set the tone

Trump seemed to be on the back foot with regard to the Taiwan matter after Xi set an assertive tone last week, warning the US President against mishandling the issue. He cast a shadow on the prospects of the US coming to the island nation’s rescue in the event of a Chinese invasion.

And this week, CBS News reported the US Navy’s acting secretary saying that arms sales to Taiwan to the tune of $14 billion had been put on “pause” to ensure that the US had sufficient munitions for its Iran operations.

‘Law of the jungle’: A joint condemnation

In the joint documents issued, Moscow and Beijing warned against a return to the “law of the jungle”.

In an apparent reference to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the US military and the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the two condemned the “assassination” and “brazen abduction” of leaders for regime change.

In a veiled reference to the impasse over the Strait of Hormuz, the two called on countries to stop “unilaterally” interfering with international trade and supply chains. They also appeared to criticise the US’s Golden Dome air defence shield plans as well.

II. US interdicts former Cuban President Raúl Castro

On Thursday, the Trump administration indicted Raúl Castro, the brother of Fidel Castro, on charges stemming from the downing of two civilian planes belonging to a Miami-based Cuban exile volunteer organisation in 1996. Four people were killed in the incident, and at the time, Raúl was the country’s defence minister.

*In the 1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Cuba’s financial patron, the island nation plunged into an economic crisis marked by severe shortages of fuel, food, and electricity. Thousands of Cubans began fleeing to the US, crossing the strait using makeshift boats. The Brothers to the Rescue, run by Cuban immigrants and exiles, carried out rescue operations in the airspace between the US and Cuba, sharing the location of the boats with the US Coast Guard.*

A day later, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the island nation poses a “national security threat” and that the likelihood of a peaceful agreement was “not high.”

Washington prefers diplomacy, but “the likelihood of that happening, given who we’re dealing with right now, is not high,” Rubio added. He also accused Cuba of being “one of the leading sponsors of terrorism in the entire region.”

Rubio’s statement comes at a time when tensions between Washington and Havana are high, as Cuba reels under a severe energy crisis triggered by an effective blockade on oil supplies by the US.

Cuba and GAESA’s fate

Donald Trump’s administration has been building pressure on the communist regime in Cuba since January, reminiscent of his first term. After announcing the blockade, Trump mused about taking over the island.

Although Raúl Castro relinquished the presidency and the leadership of the Communist Party in 2021, he is still regarded as one of the most powerful men in the island country.

As part of a pressure campaign in recent months, Washington sanctioned several entities and individuals linked to Grupo de Administración Empresarial SA (GAESA), the military-run conglomerate that allegedly controls between 40 per cent and 70 per cent of the Cuban economy, the New York Times reported.

GAESA was ideated by Raúl Castro, following the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was initially created as a means to finance the military, but now the conglomerate controls virtually every corner of the Cuban economy – from tourism, malls, and gas stations to the country’s largest commercial bank and its sole internet operator.

Rubio called GAESA a tool of Cuba’s political elite. Earlier this month, Trump signed an executive order saying the commercial empire’s revenues “are likely more than three times the state’s budget.”

On Thursday, Rubio announced the arrest of Adys Lastres Morera, the sister of one of the top officials linked to GAESA. Rubio alleged that while Morera was living in Florida, she was “also aiding Havana’s communist regime.”

Trump admin’s pressure on Latin America

The charges against Raúl Castro echo those targeting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who was captured in January this year following a months-long diplomatic standoff with Washington over narco-terror charges against him.

The Trump administration has grown assertive in seeking cooperation from countries in Latin America, with analysts pointing out the US President’s embrace of foreign policy doctrines that justify military coercion in the neighbourhood.

In its National Defence Strategy published this year, the Pentagon has shown its openness to the use of “credible military options” in Central and South America to secure US interests. Critics, however, have argued that the broader approach reflects neo-colonialism.

Last week, CIA director John Ratcliffe met Cuban officials in Havana to restore ties between the US and the island nation, the Cuban government said.

III. Saudi, Pakistan ramp up military cooperation

This week, Reuters reported that Pakistan has deployed 8,000 troops, a fighter jet squadron, and an air defence system in Saudi Arabia under a mutual defence pact signed last year.

The scale of deployment has been described as combat-capable. It includes 16 aircraft, mostly Chinese JF-17 fighters, two squadrons of drones, and a Chinese HQ-9 air defence system. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif previously implied that the pact places Riyadh under Islamabad’s nuclear umbrella.

The move also signals Riyadh’s willingness to diversify its defence cooperation and comes at a time of visible discord between the Gulf states and their traditional security partner, the United States, over the war with Iran. Before the ceasefire between Tehran and Washington was announced in April, Tehran had been repeatedly targeting energy installations and civilian facilities across the Gulf.

Several Gulf partners also voiced their discontent over the US not notifying them of the military operation against Iran in advance.

Riyadh has been looking at hedging support from other countries for some time now. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are in the final stages of talks on co-production and technology transfer for Turkey’s fifth-generation Kaan fighter jet program.

There have been reports of expanding the bilateral pact to include Ankara and creating an ‘Islamic Nato’.

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